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This week's edition of "Thursday Night Football" will pit two of the NFC's inner circle competitors. But if one of these contenders is as good a start to the season as possible, the other is getting into the game. The Rams are 3-0 and look like the most complete football team. The Vikings, meanwhile, have only 1 to 1 and are being hit by the weak Bills.
Minnesota is facing several injuries and now the strange personal questions defensive star line player Everson Griffen, who will not play in this game. And the Vikings have to travel to Los Angeles for a short week to face one of the best football teams in the country, which operates at the peak of its power early in the season. This is a difficult question even in the best of cases, and the Vikings do not seem to be in the best of cases right now.
Can the Vikes get things back on track, or will the Rams continue to roll? We will discover Thursday night. Here is how it will go.
When the Rams have the ball
The Kansas City Chiefs offense has received more attention than any other in football in the first three weeks of the season, and with Patrick Mahomes appearing to set a new record for each pass attempt, this attention is warranted. But the Rams attack was almost as impressive.
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Consider this: in three games, Sean McVay's unit ranks third in the league in both yards and points per game … even though he ranks last in the pawn per game. The average The NFL has played 35.8 games this season, while the Rams have only 29 points. The Rams were absurdly effective and ranked second behind the DVOA on the offensive of the Football Outsiders. The Rams are the only team in the league to rank among the top five players in the DVOA, and they also rank fourth in yards per game, the first in yards per game (6.6 yards completely ridiculous) and the second in in both points per disc and the percentage of discs that end with a touchdown or goal in the field. They were supported both by a lower conversion rate of the third division (54.1%) and by the fact that they are almost never eliminated. Only 5.3% of LA's orders ended after three games, the league's best score.
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Between the creative game design of McVay, the strong game of the offensive line (Jared Goff was sacked on only 3.8% of his fallout and the line has zero Blast Blocks so far this season, according to data from Sports Info Solutions), and the amount of talent available, it may not be so surprising. But looking at the data, it's pretty clear that the offense could be even better.
Underdog star Todd Gurley, for example, is averaging just 4.1 yards per race so far this season. This despite the fact that he saw eight or more supporters in the box on only 16.1% of his runs, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. Much of his relative lack of success, in terms of distance, comes from his races in the middle. According to Sports Info Solutions, Gurley wore 27 times for just 88 yards on the indoor runs, and 47 of those 88 yards came after a touchdown. If the center of the Rams line starts to be more efficient, Gurley could start defeating some defenses in the middle. and if he does, things will become even more open for Goff and his receiver corps of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, all of whom have already left for a fantastic start.
Goff has probably made the biggest jump of Season 1 in Season 2, his first with McVay. The step forward that it has taken so far this season is not as important, but it is important. Goff completed over 70% of his passes and averaged 9.3 yards per pass. He ranks sixth in the NFL smuggling rankings, fifth in the QBR and fourth in the DVOA. He was fantastic in throwing hard, completing 14 of 22 attempts on 15-yard or more shots in the air, racking up 351 yards on those games. With the Rams moving Cooks, Woods and Kupp all over the field, Goff keeps finding who's open. The cooks took 19 for 336 yards. Woods has 19 catches for 222 yards and two points. And Kupp has 15 catches for 186 yards and two scores as well. Only two other teams in the league (Lions, Steelers) have at least three players with 15 or more catches, and one of the three players in each team is a running back.
To see this machine face one of the best defenses of the NFL – despite last week's debacle against the Bills – should be extremely interesting. Most Minnesota defensemen have been above or above average this season, including the game against the Bills. Xavier Rhodes does his usual work. Harrison Smith is probably the best individual safety in football. Rookie Mike Hughes was fantastic, allowing only four finishes on 12 shots in his direction. Trae Waynes kept the games in front of him and did his best to tackle immediately, yielding only 77 yards in three games.
The areas the Rams will likely aim for Thursday night are Mackensie Alexander (6 of 7, 88 yards) and linebacker Eric Kendricks (9 of 12, 161 yards and a touchdown). It probably means going over a group of dangerous athletes, but if there's a coach who can get his best isolated catchers into space against specific defenders, it's probably McVay. The Vikings probably working without Everson Griffen again, Goff should be at least somewhat protected, which gives him time to choose the right match and make a precise throw.
And while the Vikings were stingy with the race against the Rams' favorite group (the Vikes allowed only 3.83 yards per run over 11 people) or a running back, one tight end and three receivers, Les Rams ran 98% of the time this year), they also gave a first drop to 31.4% of the games in progress, which rank 28th in the league. This type of rate would allow Gurley to keep Goff and his company on time, and the Rams to walk as they did during the first three games of the year.
When the Vikings have the ball
The Vikings offensive has not been as explosive or effective as the Rams so far this season, but it also has a strong talent pool and the ability to reach similar heights if it reaches its maximum efficiency.
Kirk Cousins has long since overcome his early turnover problems and has become one of the most accurate smugglers of the league. The tandem of Dalvin Cook (who is coming back from another injury) and Latavius Murray are strong, Cook in particular being a formidable athlete able to participate in all three phases of the game (running, blocking passes, passkey) . . Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are arguably the best pair of receivers in the NFL. Kyle Rudolph, when he is healthy, has been one of the most consistent tight goals in the league. The offensive line, even if it is not an elite, is better than in the past and has allowed the Cousins to be relatively well protected so far.
But the results for Minnesota have not yet been as good as for the Rams. The Vikings rank 14th in yards and 22nd in three weeks, as well as 22nd in DVOA. (They are 19th in attack and DVOA 31st in attack.) They are 17th in yards per game and 28th in points per disc. The team put only eight of his 37 records in the scores. That's a 21.6% rate that is worse than all teams in the league, with the exception of decrepit cardinals.
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Their race match was terrible, with Cook and Murray combining for just 3.5 yards per race. Cousins has already made two selections and is only 6.9 yards per attempt – the second worst score of his career. Diggs picked up only 55% of the passes in his direction. Laquon Treadwell, # 3, was almost a complete non-factor. Even Thielen, who has 32 catches in three games, averages 10.6 yards per game, well below the average of 14.0 per receiving in each of the past two seasons. Kicker Daniel Carlson has converted just one of his four field trials.
Although it may seem extremely unlikely that they can get on track against what has been one of the best defenses of the NFL (Rams finished sixth in the yards, first in allowed points and eighths in defensive DVOA over three weeks). the Vikings are lucky to catch the Rams at a convenient time. Cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib – who have been completely out of mind so far – are likely to miss the match, Peters with a calf injury and Talib with an ankle injury that required surgery. (Peters is considered dubious, no matter what.) Hybrid defender Mark Barron is also recovering from an ankle injury and also seems unlikely to play.
Of course, there is still a lot of talent in the Los Angeles defense, with Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers ahead and Lamarcus Joyner, John Johnson III and Nickell Robey-Coleman patrolling back. But the potential / unlikely absence of the team's first two corners opens up opportunities on the perimeter, especially for a player like Diggs. Sam Shields is a very competent player who has been relegated to spot clichés so far and should do admirable work, but he's not as playmaker as Peters and he's not as physical and strong at the line point like Talib. If the Vikings can isolate it or make a blanket at Troy Hill, they should try their luck. They will have to do everything so that Gurley, Goff and the company can continue to play.
Prediction: Rams 24, Vikings 17
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