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MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

Dairy farmers are gathering in Madison, Wis., This week for the World Dairy Expo. Their meeting comes on the heels of the newly negotiated trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, the one that replaced NAFTA. And fixing the U.S. dairy market was a priority in that agreement. Wisconsin Public Radio's Hope How do you feel about the new trade deal?

HOPE KIRWAN, BYLINE: I'm standing in the exhibition hall at the World Dairy Expo. Hundreds of people walking around the country walking through the city. The dairy industry is still in the market today.

KATIE ZIEMER: It's the biggest show where dairy cattle come together.

KIRWAN: That's dairy farmer Katie Ziemer. She says this year's expo comes from the farmer's side.

ZIEMER: It's what's going to make or break us. And hopefully with this new trade, it will not break us. It will help keep farming going.

KIRWAN: The average dairy farm has struggled to make a profit for years. The price farmers are paid for their milk dropped from $ 26 for 100 pounds of milk in 2014 to just $ 16 now. So Ziemer and others here the opportunity to sell to Canada under the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement could help U.S. farmers, though marginally. Last year in Wisconsin, dozens of farmers were left without a milk buyer in Canada.

Class 7. The goal was to boost domestic sales. And that hurt competition from U.S. imports. While they sell only about 1 percent of Wisconsin's annual milk production, the shock of seeing their sellers overnight sparked national efforts to oppose Canada's move.

By the time the Treasury opened NAFTA negotiations, fixing the market was a top priority. And it was not until Canada was reached. Mark Stephenson at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He says the fight was not really about trade between the two countries. It was about other markets, too.

MARK STEPHENSON: Canada is going to produce more skim milk powder under this class. And that began to compete directly with U.S. export sales.

KIRWAN: But David Wiens with the Dairy Farmers of Canada argues that overproduction by U.S. dairies is a bigger issue.

DAVID WIENS: You know, Wisconsin produces more milk than all of Canada does. And so far, you know, you know, you know, it's not going to really change the surplus situation in the U.S.

KIRWAN: And some American farmers are starting to question whether the new trade agreement will really be all that helpful. Wisconsin dairy farmer Mark Heinze lost his milk buyer last year because of Canada's move. But he says it's going to be better.

MARK HEINZE: There are some major problems in the dairy industry and in agriculture in general right now. So this a – certainly a Band-Aid and not a fix.

KIRWAN: Heinze cites issues like the growth of U.S. milk production and the disconnect between what farmers receive for their milk at the grocery store. With the Trump administration calling the new trade agreement a big win for farmers, he worries that these systemic issues will be overlooked again when the trade deal is signed. For NPR News, I'm Hope Kirwan in Madison. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

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