Macedonia's name change is threatened by low turnout

Everyone does not see it that way. In the run-up to the vote, many opponents of the name change agreement called on Macedonians to boycott the referendum in order to undermine the outcome – a campaign that seemed to be largely working. James Ker-Lindsay, a Balkan expert at the London School of Economics, said that although the vote is not binding, its failure to garner sufficient participation could facilitate the vote of opponents to the vote. agreement. his way to parliament. Zaev's Social Democrat Union Party does not have the required two-thirds majority to ratify the agreement by itself, which means they will need the support of opposition party lawmakers nationalist, the VMRO-DPMNE. "They will need 10 VMROs [lawmakers] that will come out of the ranks out of 50, so 20%, "said Ker-Lindsay. "The problem is to find the deputies who are ready to do it."

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It will not be easy to ensure that many opposition lawmakers separate. VMRO was a vocal opponent of the name change agreement. Although he did not call for an official boycott of the vote, urging Macedonians to vote "with their conscience" instead, he has already pointed to the low voter turnout as evidence of the failure of the government's efforts. "The fact is that the deal with Greece has not been given the green light," said Hristijan Mickovski, the VMRO leader, in a statement. "It's a defeat not only for the agreement with Greece, but for the crime of those in power."

But Zaev has not yet given up, and US and European leaders have not urged Macedonians to support the deal. Alain Le Roy, French diplomat and former EU ambassador to Macedonia, told reporters Monday that the EU would still urge Macedonian lawmakers to accept the deal. Heather Nauert, the spokeswoman for the State Department, issued a statement that the United States would do the same.

Zaev is committed to submitting the name change agreement to the Macedonian Parliament by next week for approval. If the agreement is approved in Skopje, it must then be ratified by lawmakers in Athens, where Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is facing his own political opposition to the agreement. In either case, said Ker-Lindsay, neither party will have the luxury of the time.

"It will depend a lot on what will happen in the next few days," he said. "People will want to do everything in their power to keep this alive … They will want to try to keep this movement and keep Greece on board. Because if this crumbles, we do not know when there will be an election in Greece and if the [opposition party] New Democracy wins, they are required to kill him. It could very well be the end of the road. "