Manafort's advocacy talks could offer each party a small victory

Former president of President Trump's campaign, Paul Manafort, discusses a possible plea agreement, he could finally yield to the intense pressure of prosecutors to cooperate and the long-term chance of escaping unscathed from a second trial scheduled under the current of the month.

Since his conviction in a federal courtroom in Virginia in August, the 69-year-old political consultant has been negotiating with Special Adviser Robert S. Mueller III, according to people close to the case.

At first glance, there is not much at stake for both sides – prosecutors have already obtained a heavy sentence against Manafort, and for him, a plea agreement may not allow him to save much time . He has not yet been sentenced in the first case, but lawyers say he could receive about seven to ten years according to federal guidelines.

[Manafort convicted on eight counts; mistrial declared on 10 others]

Manafort must now be tried in the district on seven counts, including not registering as a lobbyist for a foreign country and attempting to tamper with witnesses in this case.

Manafort's behavior has led some law enforcement officials to suspect that he was secretly counting on a thanks from President Trump, his former boss, according to people familiar with internal discussions who spoke about anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case.

Trump refused to talk about his request for forgiveness for Manafort, but he has repeatedly defended his former campaign lieutenant and has already pardoned some cases against high-ranking Republicans.

Patrick Cotter, a former federal private prosecutor in Chicago, said the possibility of a pardon is the best explanation for Manafort's decisions.

"If it were not the possibility of a pardon, it would be foolish not to reach an agreement at this point," Cotter said. "He's already guaranteed to go to prison for years, he's unlikely to win in DC, it's incredibly expensive, and he has no advantage in going to trial. And he is in the enviable position that even after a conviction, if he is willing to tell the truth, the government is always interested in talking to him. It's pretty rare.

People familiar with the plea negotiations have stated that Mr. Manafort has not been willing to cooperate with Mueller to date by providing any new information or testimony in the ongoing investigation into whether Trump's partners had

A spokesman for the special council declined to comment, just like a spokesman for Manafort.

A plea of ​​guilty without such cooperation is a much less attractive proposition for Mueller's team, but legal analysts believe that both parties still have much to gain from an agreement, even without cooperation.

"The leverage of Manafort to attempt to obtain any beneficial treatment from prosecutors will disappear if he does not jump on the opportunity to reach an agreement before the start of the next trial, "said Robert Mintz, former federal prosecutor is training you.

By pleading, Manafort would also pay his legal team to represent him for several weeks. For complex cases like Manafort, the label of such a lawsuit could be $ 1 million or more.

Some white collar defendants will choose to go to court in part because it allows them to stay on bail until the case is resolved. Even this incentive has been removed for Manafort. He was sentenced to jail in June, after prosecutors said they tried to tamper with the testimony in the upcoming case.

For prosecutors, the benefits of a possible guilty plea are different. Each trial poses at least one risk and a plea would eliminate that. Even an agreement without cooperation would always be a public victory for prosecutors.

"Manafort should admit in open court that he voluntarily engaged in criminal conduct," Mintz said. "This will usually be quite detailed and it will certainly put an end to the idea that Manafort is an innocent person who has simply been caught up in the wider political whirlwind. This advantage for prosecutors – a clear victory with a clear admission of guilt on the part of Manafort – would be great. "

Since he's been indicted for the first time in late 2017, Manafort has given every indication that he is fighting the charges until the end. Even when his partner, Rick Gates, pleaded and testified against him, Manafort fought alone against the case.

Last month, he was convicted in Virginia on eight counts, including bank fraud and tax burdens.

After this verdict, Trump praised Manafort, likening him favorably to former personal attorney for president Michael Cohen, who pleaded guilty in an independent case and implicated Trump.

"I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family," said Trump tweeted. "Justice" took a 12-year tax case, among other things, exerted tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to "break" – invent stories to get a "deal". Such respect for a brave man! "