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Paul Manafort's lawyers reached a preliminary agreement with Advisor Robert Mueller's special team, ABC News reported Thursday night. The agreement is expected to be announced in court on Friday, and if it is respected, it will defeat the second trial of Manafort, which was due to start later this month.
But there remains an extremely important question that remains unanswered: will Manafort agree to cooperate with Mueller's investigation of Russian interference – even if it means overthrowing President Trump?
According to a previous report by John Santucci and Matthew Mosk of ABC News, it was a sticking point. Their sources said Mueller "was seeking Manafort's cooperation for information about President Trump and the 2016 campaign." However, they added: "Manafort is resisting and his team is pushing the attorneys to an agreement as bound to the president. "
Many have long speculated that the main purpose of the special council in accusing Manafort of financial crimes and lobbying was to push him to "go back" – so he would agree to provide information on their real concern about whether the Trump campaign conspired with the Russia with the countryside.
Until now, Manafort has not changed its mind, choosing to fight the charges in court, despite the apparent strength of the evidence against him. This has led to speculation that he is merely satisfied with President Trump's grace.
However, the Manafort trial in Virginia ended with a conviction on eight counts, for which he will likely have a prison sentence of several years. After that, he still had one and potentially two more expensive trials to come. And no forgiveness has materialized yet. So, for the first time, his team began to talk seriously about making an advocacy agreement.
It is important to keep in mind that not all advocacy agreements require cooperation. An advocacy agreement in which Manafort agrees to provide incriminating information about the president and Russia could have far-reaching consequences. A plea agreement in which Manafort does not make such a commitment would be much less upsetting.
Why Manafort could finally be ready for an advocacy agreement
Paul Manafort was first charged by Mueller's team in Washington, DC, last October – but unlike the other three Trump aides accused by the special council, who maintained his innocence.
In February, Mueller added a new round of charges against Manafort, which involved a separate lawsuit in Virginia. At that time, Manafort's long-time right-hand man, Rick Gates, who had been accused by his side, switched over and agreed to cooperate with Mueller. However, Manafort has not shown any sign of seeking a similar deal.
Then, in June, Mueller slapped Manafort with even more charges – this time for attempted witness tampering. Manafort was jailed on June 15 because he violated his release conditions. He was incarcerated for almost three months.
Yet in August, he tried his luck fighting Virginia's charges in court, probably hoping that this would culminate in a lawsuit that could hinder Mueller's investigation. Instead, he was convicted of eight counts (and a single juror's trial of jail over a further 10 counts, which Mueller may still try). Manafort has not yet been sentenced, but his slim hope of avoiding a long prison sentence now seems to have disappeared.
For months, President Trump tried, using winks and nods, to signal that he was ready to forgive Manafort. He forgave other leading conservative personalities. He praised Manafort for his loyalty and said he was sad about what was happening to him. Politico reported Thursday that Trump and Manafort's lawyers have joined a joint defense agreement that allows them to share information behind the scenes and keep it confidential. Last year, Trump's lawyer, John Dowd, reportedly announced the possibility of pardoning Manafort's lawyer.
Until now, however, this forgiveness can not be found. Some believe that Trump will offer it after the midterms. But that's not a sure thing, after all, after the midterms came closer to Trump's reelection. In addition, if Democrats take the House of Representatives, Manafort's forgiveness after the mid-term may well lead to Trump's removal.
Manafort may also have financial worries – as Marcy Wheeler points out, a DC conviction could cost him millions of dollars or property. A pardon might not help with that.
It would not be surprising then that Manafort begins to feel a bit lonely and wonders if this forgiveness will come to fruition after all. His legal fees have accumulated. His property is in danger. And now, the fact that his lawsuit before the DC should begin on September 24th seems to have brought him to a decision point. He hopes that some of the charges will be withdrawn and that the leniency of the sentence will be improved, this could be his last chance.
But the question is whether Mueller can accept what Manafort is proposing
Now, it is possible that the Mueller team will accept an advocacy agreement with Manafort that does not need its cooperation. They may feel that they are convinced by Manafort's will and are ready to take the next step in their investigation, rather than spend weeks devoting their resources to another Manafort trial.
Yet, if the ABC News report is correct, Mueller was reluctant to let Manafort pick up too easily. Specifically, the sources of Santucci and Mosk claimed that Mueller was seeking Manafort's cooperation with regard to Trump and the 2016 elections.
The leak may well come from the Manafort team, because these sources claim that Manafort "resists" a cooperation agreement and "pushes" for an agreement that would not require "at least as regards the president."
As a former federal prosecutor Mimi Rocah pointed out on Twitter, the framing itself was strange. "Prosecutors do not say cooperate [about] a specific person, "she writes. "They say cooperate, tell the truth about everything and everyone, or disagree." The idea that Manafort could cut a cooperation agreement that does not require telling the truth about Trump does not really make sense. The real question is whether he agrees to cooperate or not.
What does Manafort know?
In connection with all this, there is the question of what Manafort really knows about the collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government during the 2016 campaign.
Manafort, of course, said the answer was nothing. That no collusion has occurred, so it would naturally have no information to provide on this subject.
But even if we can not say for sure, it is likely that Mueller thinks it is otherwise, given his focus on Manafort. And there are two curious events during the particular campaign in which Manafort is involved.
The Trump Tower meeting: On the one hand, there was this infamous meeting at Trump Tower, organized by Donald Trump in June 2016 with a Russian lawyer and other personalities related to Russia. The three participants at this meeting on Trump's side were Don Jr., Jared Kushner and Manafort. No participant has become a cooperator for Mueller. Perhaps the special advisor thinks that there is still much to be learned about this meeting and hopes that Manafort will talk to him about it.
Oleg Deripaska and Konstantin Kilimnik: Manafort's discreet contacts with two Russian nationals during the campaign may be even more suspect. His former client, the oligarch Oleg Deripaska, to whom Manafort was heavily indebted. And Manafort's longtime partner, Konstantin Kilimnik, whom Mueller's team said was linked to Russian intelligence services.
Just weeks after joining the Trump campaign, Manafort seemed to see an opportunity. In early April, he sent an email to Kilimnik about his new media profile, saying, "How do we use to be complete?" And "Was the OVD operation seen?
In July 2016, Manafort and Kilimnik again exchanged e-mails on Deripaska, as reported by the Washington Post and Atlantic last year. "I am very optimistic about the question of our greatest interest," said Kilimnik. "He will most likely be looking for ways to reach you very soon." Manafort wrote that if Deripaska "needs private briefings, we can accommodate."
The pair's messages on the subject became more vague and more cryptic as the summer continued. At the end of July, Kilimnik wrote to Manafort: "I met today the guy who gave you your biggest pot of black caviar many years ago. We spent about 5 hours talking about his story, and I'm giving you several important messages. It is thought that this again concerns Deripaska, with "caviar" considered as money.
Kilimnik and Manafort organized a meeting in New York to discuss the issue on Aug. 2 – Kilimnik wrote that he had a "long story of caviar" to tell and "several important messages".
A few days after the meeting, Deripaska took a boat trip with Sergei Prikhodko, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, who focuses on foreign policy. Once again, all this happened while Manafort was presiding over the Trump campaign, before being sacked in mid-August 2016.
Now, this year, Kilimnik seems keenly interested in preventing Manafort from getting out of jail – he was indicted alongside Manafort for obstructing justice in June for attempting to incite witnesses to give a false story. However, it is unlikely that Kilimnik will face these accusations because he is currently based in Moscow.
We still do not know what happened between Manafort, Kilimnik and Deripaska during the campaign. Maybe the action on the Trump campaign / collusion with Russia has occurred. Or maybe Manafort was just freelancing and trying to get paid, and that does not imply Trump personally. But this is one of the biggest failures of what happened in 2016.
In any case, the essential aspect in the reports on the Manafort and Mueller case is the cooperation aspect. Because if a possible plea agreement requires cooperation, this could be very important. If an agreement is actually announced in court on Friday, we will know.
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