Mapping the threat of small near-Earth asteroids

Just recently, a small asteroid illuminated the sky over Botswana – having been discovered only hours before it hit the Earth. Near Earth objects (NEO) such as asteroids have been the subject of a four-week conference at the Munich Astrophysics and Particle Astrophysics Institute (MIAPP). in Garching

. Detlef Koschny, head of the European Space Agency (ESA) NEO team and lecturer at the astronaut chair at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), explains why we need to expand the search and detection capabilities of NEOs. [19659002] Sixty-five million years ago, a 15-kilometer asteroid wiped out two-thirds of all life on Earth, including dinosaurs. But that 's probably not what kind of asteroid we should be worried about. These are actually the smaller objects near the Earth that pose a more imminent threat, such as the asteroid that struck the Earth on June 2 and that scientists saw coming one day in advance.

Internationally renowned astronomers, astrophysicists and space scientists Over the past four weeks, we have developed new strategies to improve detection, scientific and commercial exploitation, and defense against NEOs. The conference was organized by the Institute of Physics of Astro and Particles of Munich (MIAPP), a subsidiary of the Cluster of Excellence "Origin and Structure of the Universe" at the University of Munich. 39, Technical University of Munich (TUM)

. Detlef Koschny, Head of the European Space Agency (ESA) Near-Earth Objects Team and Lecturer at the TUM Chair for Astronautics, explains why scientists are focusing their research on small objects NEOs.

TUM: Let's start with a fundamental question: How is an asteroid different from a meteorite?

Detlef Koschny: Asteroids are objects of more than one meter – for example the object that exploded over Botswana earlier this month. Meteorites are objects of less than one meter. When they enter and pass through the atmosphere of a planet, they call meteorites.

Comets are asteroids with large amounts of volatile compounds such as ice water. When they approach the Sun, these compounds vaporize, creating their distinctive tails.

TUM: Hollywood disaster movies like "Armageddon" still feature colossal asteroids on a trajectory of direct collision with the Earth. So why should we worry about small NEOs?

Detlef Koschny: NEOs that can approach or hit our planet range in size from a few millimeters to about 50 to 60 kilometers in diameter. We detected the majority of the largest NEOs and calculated their trajectories as well as the statistical risk of collision with Earth 100 years later.

We mapped 90% of asteroids of one kilometer or more. We know exactly where the big ones are and that they will not pose a threat. In the medium-sized region, the situation is completely different: we have only detected and mapped less than 1% of NEOs of less than one kilometer.

If a 100-meter asteroid struck Earth, it would cause significant damage. an area the size of Germany, and even affect the surrounding area. But asteroids of this size do not hit Earth very often. Maybe every 10,000 years on average.

From 100 meters to 50 meters, the statistical frequency of strikes increases up to once every 1,000 years. A century ago, in 1908, a 40-meter object struck the Earth over Tunguska in Siberia, destroying a forest area the size of the Munich metro.

And if we descended to asteroids of about 20 meters asteroid that exploded on Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013, which ended up hurting 1500 people – which occur on average once every 10 to 100 years. We will certainly see something like this in our lifetime

TUM: No one has seen the Chelyabinsk asteroid arrive before it hits. And scientists have spotted only one who hit Botswana a few hours in advance. What is the current state of NEO detection technology?

Detlef Koschny: At present, there are two major Earth-based research programs, both funded by our American colleagues. They use optical telescopes that cover a wide field of view and can continuously scan the night sky to detect bright objects.

When it comes to detecting larger objects, this strategy works pretty well, since they are visible they are still far from Earth. But detecting smaller objects up to a height of 20 meters is very difficult. They are not bright enough to be detected until they are at least as close as the moon.

If you only have two of these telescopes on the planet and that each telescope takes three weeks to cover the entire sky, you have to be really lucky that a small asteroid crosses your field of view just when you look in the right way.

That's why we are currently developing extremely large telescopes that will have the ability to scan the entire sky in just 48 hours. In addition, as part of ESA's Space Situational Awareness (ESA) program, we mobilize observatories and astronomers around the world via the NEO coordination center of the European Space Research Institute (ESRIN). ) in Italy

TUM: are your recommendations for improving detection and monitoring capabilities, and what new detection technologies are being deployed now or in the near future?

Detlef Koschny: There is a system called terrestrial telluric impact warning system (ATLAS) in the United States It is small telescopes that although they do not do not see very weak objects, cover almost all night once a night.

Here in Europe, we build the Flyeye telescope, with a meter of efficiency. opening. It provides us with a large field of vision that is more than 100 times the size of the full moon in the night sky. In one night, with a telescope, we can cover about half of the sky. The strategy to achieve this was developed by one of our masters students here at TUM

Our conclusion at the end of the conference and one of the recommendations we will make in the post-White Paper. conference: There is an urgent need for telescopes capable of sweeping the sky for these near-Earth objects, and a global network of telescopes working in concert, so that we can really cover the smallest range of asteroids in orbit near ground. We must FINALLY FIND these objects before we can take concrete steps to defend ourselves against them

The conference "Near Earth Objects: Properties, Detection, Resources, Impacts and Defense of the Earth" was organized and hosted. by the Institute of Particle Astrophysics Munich and funded by the German Foundation for Research (DFG) via the Cluster of Excellence "Origin and Structure of the Universe" at the 39; Technical University of Munich (TUM). The MIAPP, based at the Garching Research Campus north of Munich, is integrated in the academic environment of the TUM and Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich physics departments and locally based Max Planck institutes and the Observatory Southern European (ESO).

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ESA-NEO Program of ESA:

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