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Marine Le Pen in Paris.
By YOAN VALAT / EPA-EFE / REX / Shutterstock.
The window for Emmanuel Macron to prevent the rise of the far right in France can now be close. When he was elected on Marine Le Pen In May 2017, Macron had the opportunity to prove that its program of "radical centrism" could unite the country, boost a sclerotic labor market, reduce red tape, lighten the national budget and reform the Union. European. But Le Pen's politics, populist-nationalist in fashion Donald Trump, have not been defeated, simply at rest. The turnout rate for the elections was low, for France, at 75%, and many voters paid their ticket for Macron only to block Le Pen. While Macron won the last election with two-thirds of the vote, political observers predicted that voters would not be patient with the 40-year-old banker's party, En Marche. The countdown has begun.
Some 18 months later, a new poll confirms that the battle for the French Republic, torn between nativism and globalism, tends to favor Le Pen. According to an Ifop poll released on Sunday, the far-right National Rally Party (National Rally) advanced ahead of En Marche for the first time before the May 2019 European Parliament elections. Some 1,000 French people were questioned about how which they would vote if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday: 19% said that they would support Macron, against 20% end of August, while 21% expressed support for Le Pen, against 17% today . . With 9% more support for the smaller populist parties and so-called "Frexit", the far-right vote totaled 30% – a substantial gain of five points since this summer.
The rampant resurgence of Le Pen reflects the weakened popularity of Macron, which reached an unprecedented record while accusations that it was arrogant and disconnected, and that its reforms, intended to stimulate the French economy, had benefited only To the rich. The last criticism that the French have with Macron is the rise in the price of gasoline; Truckers and drivers plan to block traffic throughout the country as part of the national events on 17 November.
Macron's loss of internal support is unlikely to affect the implementation of its increasingly controversial reforms for the time being. However, this will have an impact on the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which, transformed into an indirect war between pro-European and nationalist-populist, could well determine the future of the European Union, especially now that the bloc is on the ground. not lose his power. de facto chief, Angela Merkel. Aware of the serious challenges of the election, Macron hopes to strengthen his support by presenting himself as the arbiter of innovative centrism. As Politico reports, he resigns this week from party leaders at the Congress of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in Madrid, with the aim of negotiating a common platform with the group that would echo the vision he had for France by sabotaging the forces on both sides of the political spectrum, and defending the integrated globalism.
If Macron succeeds in forging this alliance and then manages to mobilize voter support to form the second largest group in the European Parliament, its influence in Brussels will benefit from a symbolic spike. But if French voters fail to rally, it risks alienating potential allies in Brussels and encouraging the march of Le Pen and European populists, who also see in elections an unprecedented opportunity to shape or destabilize the EU. over the next five years.
The impending battle over the US comes at a time auguring for Europe, as the continent prepares to mark the centenary of the end of the First World War, and reflects on the forces that tore it apart. In a timely interview with West France, Published last Wednesday, Macron encouraged voters to "resist" inflammatory policies reminiscent of the twenties' melting pot. "Europe faces a risk: that of dismemberment by nationalist leprosy and pressure exerted by outside powers to lose its sovereignty," he said, warning that a fractured Europe would risk " to make its security depend on American choices and changes, a growing presence in China on essential infrastructures, a Russia sometimes tempted by manipulation as well as by big financial interests ".
For French voters who have not experienced the triumph that was promised to them, the bold rhetoric of Macron will sound hollow. Obviously, Macron must get rid of his elitist image and bring it back on his side. To do this, he should look towards the resurgence of Le Pen. His triumph in the polls proves that his appeal has not dissipated with the ancestry of Macron. But more importantly, it shows that the French president has not made the necessary efforts to understand the economic and cultural alienation that fueled the far-right movements in Europe and the Americas, then that he was in power. It is not enough to encourage voters not to move away from the center, it is also necessary that Macron reassures beyond refined speeches. Otherwise, in his efforts to stop the far right, he seems doomed to slip into the same patterns as his American counterparts and to sow his continued rise.
