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Showtime … finally!
Conor McGregor is back in the Octagon this Saturday (29 September 2018) against defending Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Meanwhile, former champions Tony Ferguson and Anthony Pettis face off in the co-feature of a major pay card that also includes Derrick Lewis versus Alexander Volkov for a potential breakaway under the heavyweight title.
There are four more episodes of UFC 229 "Prelims" sub-card to review (see first batch here). Let's go!
125 lbs: Sergio Pettis against Jussier Formiga
Sergio Pettis (17-3) was in the midst of a four-game winning streak, the longest of his career at the UFC, when he met future champion Henry Cejudo and had suffered a defeat in December 2017. Six months later, "The Phenom" welcomed Joseph Benavidez in the Octagon and became the first man not to call Demetrious Johnson or Dominick Cruz to defeat "Joe B."
He knocked out and submitted three opponents each, but none in his last 11 fights.
Jussier Formiga (21-5) held up well against Henry Cejudo and Ray Borg to defeat Ulka Sasaki in Saitama, facing the stunning Ben Nguyen in Perth. Formiga proved that he was much more than a mere fighter by dropping the local favorite of a whirling fist, before locking his favorite stranglehold.
Indeed, eight of his 10 submission wins came via a throttle.
Pettis impressed me a lot against Benavidez, but it was hard not to notice the rust that Benavidez was wearing, and the latter still managed to remove it twice. In fact, Pettis has been eliminated in all but one of his UFC fights. Even Brandon Moreno – not known for his prowess in wrestling – has shot him four times.
He is usually able to climb, but it is not an option here. When Formiga puts you on the ground, he puts himself on your back and stays there until the bell rings or when he places his forearm under the chin. Pettis does not hit hard enough to dissuade the Brazilian, who has developed enough strike to organize his fight. Formiga's flawless back control is worth another, while it remains stuck to "The Phenom" for very long periods.
Prediction: Formiga via a unanimous decision
170 lbs .: Vicente Luque against Jalin Turner
A 1-1 race on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 and Mike Graves' subsequent defeat in the final gave way to a 6-1 run for Vicente Luque (13-6-1), all wins by stop in two rounds. Since he lost his decision on his compatriot Leon Turner hopeful, Luque has submitted Niko Price and knocked out Chad Laprise.
He knocked out and submitted six opponents each.
Jalen Turner (7-3) won six first-round victories, including five playoffs to qualify for the "Contender Series" against Max Mustaki. Turner dominated the first round with his shot before a broken foot forced William Mustaki to retire before the second.
"The Tarantula" will have a height advantage of four inches compared to "The Silent Killer".
Turner seems to be a young hope of quality. Despite making his first appearance at Welterweight after a career of 155 pounds, he expects his 6'3 "frame to hold up well to this new division. That said, I'm not quite sure what UFC thinks of opposing it to one of the most devastating young talents in the entire organization.
Turner is surprisingly easy to hit, falling into the standard Lanky Dude Pitfall trap of standing too straight and not moving his head. He can penetrate too far inside when he is trying to work the body. In addition to having the fight and the ground game to exploit these habits, Luque has developed a real overwhelming power in his hands. The calculation is not too difficult here.
Prediction: Luque by KO in the first round
135 lbs: Tonya Evinger against Aspen Ladd
Tonya Evinger (19-7) defeated Irene Aldana for the Invicta Bantamweight title in 2015, and then successfully defended it four times before making the jump to the UFC. His debut in the Octagon saw him overtaking on short notice against Cris 'Cyborg' and survived two full rounds against the featherweight champion.
This will be the first fight for "Triple Threat" in 14 months because of injuries both at home and at Ketlen Vieira.
After an 8-1 amateur run, Aspen Ladd (6-0) made her professional debut in Invicta and remained unbeaten (5-0), knocking over Amanda Cooper and Sijara Eubanks en route. Her debut in the Octagon saw her defeat Lina Lansberg and secure her fourth win on the ground and at the pound.
She has been out of action for almost a year after a blown weight cut canceled her April fight with Leslie Smith.
Although Ladd still has a lot of work to do to clean her shot, she already has the tools to win the win. Evinger flourishes when she can control the fight, which seems like a tough battle against the Ladd lad. In addition, Ladd is pushing very hard, which allows him to compensate for technical shortcomings.
It looks like a case where a veteran is overwhelmed by a younger and more active fighter. Unless the new weight class has a major impact, Ladd picks up enough left hooks and controls enough wrestling to win.
Prediction: Ladd by unanimous decision
155 lbs: Alan Patrick against. Scott Holtzman
Brazilian Alan Patrick (15-1) has quietly collected a 5-1 record in his five years in the Octagon, including a series of consecutive wins three times. The last time he came back from more than a year, he was coming back to defeat Damir Hadzovic in Belem.
"Nuguete" will be two inches tall and five inches wide on "Hot Sauce".
Scott Holtzman (11-2) – a former hockey player – went 4-2 in the biggest fight promotion of the world and will enter the cage this weekend on a run of two fights to him. He was last seen in December 2017, beating Darrell Horcher in Fresno, on Brian Ortega's card against Cub Swanson.
Three of his five saves were won by KO (technique).
Patrick is a horribly boring fighter, but you can not argue with results. "Nuguete" has scored 19 combined attempts in his last three bouts, which means that the fight is on the ground when, if and how he wants to. Although Holtzman is the hardest striker, his defensive fight has not caught up with the attack, and the need to get close to hand to allow Patrick to touch the goal opens the door to endless catch .
Patrick is in no hurry for the sport at the age of 35 and does not have the time to develop the strikes needed to fully exploit his length, but it is an extremely winnable struggle for him. Indeed, stable grounding take him to another decisive victory.
Prediction: Patrick via unanimous decision
CFU 229: Must. See. T. V. There is nothing more to say. See you Saturday, Maniacs!
Do not forget that MMAmania.com will provide, full turn-based, full coverage of the entire UFC 229 fight card, starting with the online "Prelims" Fight Pass matches, which must begin at 18:30. AND, the remaining balance of the sub-card on FOX Sports 1 to 20 hours. HE, before the start time of the main PPV card at 22 o'clock. AND.
Current record of "preliminary" prediction of the UFC for 2018: 138-64
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