Memo: Trump suffers early damage to separations

The political fallout from child separations is echoing across Washington and some early evidence suggests that it has damaged President TrumpDonald John TrumpCohen's lawyers support 12,000 articles protected by professional secrecy: reports A former employee of a migrant detention facility is leaking footage from the inside up to MSNBC Trump identifies the trail of Appalachian as a "Tallahassee Trail" by making fun of Sanford& # 39; s upright – a rare opportunity playing at his base may have turned against him.

If the fury will affect the performance of the GOP in mid-term elections in November is a very different issue, according to experts.

The results of weekly Gallup polls showed that Trump 's net approval rating had dropped last week by about 9 percentage points. This fall suggests that the president may be mistaken if he believes his hard line on immigration still provides a political dividend.

On Twitter, however, Trump has adopted a very aggressive line since the signing of a decree last week aimed at ending the forced separations that have separated more than 2,000 children from their families.

Trump tweeted Monday morning that people should "just be stopped at the border and tell them that they can not enter the United States illegally".

He said more than once that he did not consider more judges as a solution to the problem, implying that he believes that people trying to cross the border did not not entitled to due process.

Some Republicans fear that the party may have suffered damage to the president's reputation.

"From time to time, a problem arises and you can not distract from your attention because it speaks to the heart," said Rick Tyler, a conservative consultant who served as director of communications for Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenatorial negotiations to draft a bill on the border on July 4 Feinstein asks for a hearing on the border policy Trump Trump must beware of declaring the mission accomplished in North Korea MORE (Texas) at the 2016 GOP Presidential Primaries, "This is one of those issues that will be remembered historically – there was an administration that was tearing families apart and could not afford them. it is shameful. "

But Tyler also acknowledged that it may take some time for this historical perspective to develop. He warned that in the hyperpolarized politics of the moment, even a storm of this magnitude could not blur the lines of party identity.

"Voters are so divided on all issues, including immigration, that they can not see the forest for the trees," he said. "They have chosen a team and everything the team decides they are in. It is with the time that they will recognize the moral judgments that they made were good or bad. "

For now, however, the battle lines of the team can hold. About 90 percent of Republican voters currently approve of Trump's performance, according to the latest poll. These numbers are likely fueled in part by a strong economy, with robust growth and unemployment rates at historically low levels.

The policy that led to the separation of children from their families was unpopular with Americans as a whole, but the response among Republican voters was much more ambivalent.

A CBS News poll released Sunday revealed that 72% of Americans were opposed to politics, but Republicans split equally. A week ago, a survey of Quinnipiac University found that Republican voters supported separations, from 55% to 35%.

There is also the complicated landscape of mid-term elections to consider.

Democrats hope to maximize their gains in the House by winning suburban districts where a significant number of independent and centrist voters are still proliferating. But the map of the Senate is very different, with Democratic candidates under pressure to retain their place in states like West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri that Trump has won by wide margins in 2016.

"Last week's controversies could help some Republican challengers meet with Democratic Senators in deep red states," said GOP strategist and strategist Whit Ayres. "But that makes it more difficult for Republican politicians representing suburbs and more diverse neighborhoods."

Cam Savage, a Republican consultant who has worked on many races in his native Indiana, warned that the controversy, as devouring as it seems right now, is months away from mid-season – with a roll without end of other great stories probably still come.

In regards to Trump's concentration on immigration during the campaign, Savage said, "I do not think there is any doubt that this has drawn supporters to his campaign – but I do not think not that it had the opposite effect. "

He said that the difficulty in making mid-term predictions is to "know what will happen in the minds of people when they vote." I certainly do not think it was there. Immigration in spirit in October 2016, in the last weeks of the campaign. "

But other Republicans are worried about what will happen further down the line.

Ayres, who has argued for years that the GOP must appeal to an increasingly diverse electorate, was among those who were anxious as Trump's overall approach – from campaign vocals to "building the wall" to the current controversy a serious political price.

"Nothing has abrogated the demographic changes that are occurring relentlessly in the county," he said. "A successful national-level game in the 21st century must adapt to these changes for long-term success."

The memo is a chronicle reported by Niall Stanage, mainly focused on Donald Trump's presidency.