Speaking at the annual meeting of his party Sunday, Matteo Salvini, Italian Minister of the Interior and leader of the anti-immigrant League has said he wanted to create a pan-European association of According to Merke Reuters, a new indication that nationalist forces are gaining strength.
Merkel insisted that the European agreement reached on Friday was a victory, but the Seehofer party was not so sure. The CSU is fighting the regional elections in Bavaria in October and, under pressure from the far-right Anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), seeks to reinforce its own anti-refugee credentials in an attempt to win back voters. [19659002] But Traugott thinks that CSU's attempts will fail and that Seehofer's apparent hesitation will alienate dissatisfied voters. "They have really miscalculated what helps them and what hurts them," he said.
Merkel and Seehofer have long struggled on the right approach to migration, but seemed to reach an agreement after last year's federal election when the Chancellor agreed to limit to 200,000 the number of refugees arriving every year in Germany. Seehofer had repeatedly demanded and Merkel had always rejected.
The last push was triggered when Seehofer announced a 63 point "migration master plan" last month, which Merkel refused to support because of the asylum seeker's rejection proposal. recorded elsewhere. Merkel agrees that the current rules – known as the Dublin Regulation – need to be reformed, but insists that this must be done at European level.
What could happen next?
There are three possible outcomes, according to Traugott. During discussions on Monday afternoon, the CDU and the CSU could reach a compromise that would allow Mr Seehofer to remain in power, both as a leader of the CSU and as Minister of the Interior. .
Traugott thinks this is unlikely. "I can not see what Merkel could realistically give her today," he said.
If Seehofer resigns, his position as Minister of the Interior could be taken by another legislator of the CSU. Although Merkel could breathe a sigh of relief, little would change in the long run. "The conflict between the CSU and the CDU will continue," said Traugott. Some CSU politicians are "even more radical on this issue" than Seehofer
In the third option – and least likely – Seehofer would resign and the CSU would leave the government, "the nuclear option," according to Traugott. The ruling coalition – which would then only include the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD) – would run out of a majority and Merkel would either have to govern with a minority government or seek official support from the Green Party or the pro party. This would be extremely difficult because both parties have "very different ideas on migration policy" towards the CDU and the SPD
If the government collapses completely, it could pave the way for new elections, a option that Merkel previously said that she prefers to reign in a minority government.
Nadine Schmidt reported from Berlin and Judith Vonberg wrote in London.