Mexico votes for new president, leftist rebel favored to win

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexicans voted for an anti-establishment underdog who would inject a new dose of nationalism into government and could sharpen divisions with Donald Trump's United States.

Former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has the opinion polls throughout the campaign and would be the first leftist in the presidency in the country if he ousts the ruling Centralist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

Runner-up in the 2012 and 2006 elections, Lopez Obrador's pitches himself as the only man capable of cleaning up a political class whose credentials have been ground down by persistent graft, soaring crime levels and years of sub-economic growth.

"The new president of Mexico will have priority and a way of life," Lopez Obrador said in his campaign final in a soccer stadium in the capital on Wednesday.

The law bars president President Enrique Pena Nieto from seeking re-election. But his popularity crumbled as his name became tainted by investigations into the subject of conflict of interest and embezzlement scandals engulfing top PRI officials.

Campaigning relentlessly around Mexico for the past 13 years, Lopez Obrador has watched political careers rise and fall as established parties have been consumed by the country's social and economic problems and the responsibility of power.

For a graphic on Mexico's presidential election, click tmsnrt.rs/2MVhfjA

"Let's hope Mexico changes," said Oswaldo Angeles, 20, to Lopez Obrador supporter from Atlacomulco, a longstanding PRI bastion Some 55 miles (90 km) from Mexico City and hometown of Pena Nieto. "Right now, we do not know if we're coming or going."

Lopez Obrador, 64, has been vague on policy details. Seeking to harness the support of economic nationalists, leftist liberals and social conservatives, he vows to reduce inequality, improve pay and welfare spending, a tight budget.

A vocal opponent of the government's economic agenda, his criticism has been tempered by business-friendly aids.

Pena Nieto's opening of the oil and gas industry to private capital.

His rival Ricardo Anaya, an ex-leader of the center-right National Action Party (PAN) heading to right-left alliance, and PRI candidate Jose Antonio Meade, to form finance minister, differ only in nuance in their support of the energy reform.

Their efforts to catch Lopez Obrador have been hampered by attacks on each other, allowing him to lead a certain percentage of polls. They also represent the only two parties to have ruled modern Mexico.

TRUMP THREAT

If victorious, Lopez Obrador faces a tougher security situation than did Pena Nieto. The election campaign is in the history of history and the record of highs.

The next president will also inherit a simmering US counterpart Donald Trump on migration and trade, with talks to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) unresolved, pressuring Mexico's peso currency.

Trump has threatened to pitch North America into a costly trade war over NAFTA, and his insistence that Mexico has a lot to do with Mexico.

Lopez Obrador has trodden and wants to broker a deal with him. [L1N1TC09R]

If that proves impossible and Trump keeps provoking Mexico, few think the fiercely patriotic Lopez Obrador will stay silent.

How much heft Lopez Obrador can bring to bear both domestically and internationally will depend greatly on his control of Congress, where no party has held an outright majority since 1997 in Latin America's no. 2 economy.

Polls suggest his National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), a party that has only existed formally since 2014, could be close to reaching a majority. However, markets may react negatively if voters give him a free hand in Congress.

Lopez Obrador has been a divisive figure in Mexico since bringing much of the capital to a standstill for weeks with massive demonstrations to protest his 2006 election loss.

His commanding poll lead this time around the world.

"There's a sense of poor old (Lopez Obrador), he's not had a go yet, it's his turn. We can give it a shot, "said Sofia Lara, a graphic designer in Mexico City's Anaya backing.