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MEXICO – The new president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has built his entire political career on the defense of the poor.
A few days before taking office, President Trump tests how firmly he will rise to the occasion.
Thousands of migrants from Central America have gathered along the border between Mexico and the United States, and thousands of others are en route. US patrol boats fired tear gas on Sunday to prevent hundreds of people from reaching the border.
Mr. Trump promised to keep migrants on Mexican soil while they were seeking asylum in the United States, a process that could force them to remain in unsanitary and overcrowded shelters for months or even years. years. Mexican officials said the tension was already provoking a humanitarian emergency, creating a political crisis for López Obrador even before he took office.
"Mexico should move the flag by waving migrants, many of whom are unscrupulous criminals, to their country," Trump said. wrote on Twitter Monday. "Fly it, do it by bus, do it the way you want, but do NOT go back to the United States. We will close the border permanently if necessary. Congress, finance the wall! "
After more than 15 years of left-wing fire, López Obrador must quickly decide: will he stand up to Mr. Trump and defend the demands of migrants who want to be admitted to the United States, even though many their asylum applications be finally dismissed? Or will he accept Mr. Trump's demands and the economic imperative of good relations with the United States?
"The Mexican government is at a dead end," said Raúl Benítez Manaut, professor of international relations at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. "López Obrador is facing a baptism of fire and a dilemma: should he keep his promises of humanitarian policy or prevent the masses of migrants from trying to reach the United States?"
Members of the new Mexican administration, taking office on Saturday, are watching the situation with concern. The top ministers were preparing Sunday to discuss the stalemate with the United States – and the growing frustration of their country against the thousands of poor migrants arriving from Central America – when their agenda was diverted by the clash at the border.
Suddenly, the new ministers found themselves watching videos of hundreds of migrants, including young children, rushing to the border gates and gasping in tears by US border officials.
Mr López Obrador, who has promised visas and jobs to migrants heading north, must now reconcile his noble campaign promises with some fascinating international realities – under the eyes of the world.
The question is which version of Mr López Obrador will be confronted by Mr Trump.
Unpredictable. Capricious. Well liked by his base and hated by his detractors.
Mr López Obrador, known by his initials AMLO, has been compared more than once to Mr Trump.
And as is often the case of the US President, even his closest associates say they are unsure of the arrival of Mr. López Obrador: the avuncular leader who preaches love and morals, the torch of left that grinds the opponents, the pragmatist who is aiming for greater development agreement for the region – or the rash politician who seems to do it as he moves forward.
For now, the new administration is careful not to embarrass itself, citing the fact that it has not yet taken office.
"We have little margin right now because we do not have our own operation," said Marcelo Ebrard, the new foreign minister. "At this moment we are only spectators."
Border clashes have highlighted the fragility of the situation. As more and more Central American migrants gather – with more than 10,000 people expected in Tijuana in the coming weeks – the urgency of managing the chaos is growing day by day.
Senior officials of López Obrador's new government fear that images of migrants attempting to force their way into the US will reinforce the anti-immigrant sentiment that Mr. Trump channeled so effectively in the United States . This could make it more difficult to find a compromise resolution.
And although Mr López Obrador has promised humane treatment for migrants who are passing or staying in Mexico, it is unclear exactly what his country will obtain to house tens of thousands of migrants while waiting for asylum decisions. American courts late.
The team around Mr López Obrador is extremely aware that Mexico has long called for humane treatment for its own migrants in the United States. Mexico is now under scrutiny on how it treats migrants.
Local officials in Tijuana warned this weekend that they could not afford the cost of migrants and accused the federal government of not providing money to open another shelter to handle overcrowding .
For the moment, the city is clogging migrants in a sports center that already looks like an overcrowded refugee camp, and many Mexicans are increasingly frustrated by the presence of migrants, fearing job losses, resources and lack of money. The attention of the Mexican Government. citizens.
"I felt so desperate," said Marta Alicia Martínez Padilla, a 26-year-old Guatemalan migrant, who added that her family had sold their tent to buy necessities, such as food and toilet paper. "I do not know what to do."
Since his election, Mr. López Obrador has set the course for maintaining harmonious relations with Mr. Trump, who has made trade and migration central to the complex relationship between the two countries.
López Obrador will take office on Saturday with an ambitious national program to tackle deep-seated inequalities in Mexico and boost the development of the impoverished South. The last thing he wanted was a conflict with Mr. Trump that could shake the Mexican markets.
This partly explains why, despite his long-standing reservations about free trade, Mr. López Obrador has signed an agreement in principle. Revised commercial agreement that President Enrique Peña Nieto has negotiated with the Trump administration, hoping to remove a central irritant in Trump's approach to Mexico.
Mr López Obrador also looked for a way to calm Trump about migration – an issue on which Mr Trump made a centerpiece of his appeal to supporters. In a letter to Mr. Trump a few weeks after his election, Mr. López Obrador presented a plan to tackle the problems of migration – by developing development in the southern region of Mexico and on the border with the United States. United States – as well as in Central America. America.
Mr. López Obrador wrote that Mexico was willing to spend money on this effort and that, if the United States associated with Mexico and the nations of Central America, "we could bring together a considerable amount of resources to develop the region ".
His goal, he wrote, was that people can find a job at home so that migration is an option, not a necessity.
It was an ambitious proposal to a president who focused on law enforcement as a tool to limit migration to the United States. But then, the events in Central America took a turn that put the issue of migration in the foreground.
In October, migrants leaving Honduras formed a caravan to the United States. They found a lot of safety during the perilous trip to Mexico, where they fall prey to gangs.
Mr. López Obrador has taken a generous approach. His development program in southern Mexico would have room for migrants, he said, and his new Minister of the Interior, Olga Sánchez Cordero, discussed the possibility of granting a million working visas to Central Americans.
But this weekend has provided a case study of the problem that is getting ready at the border.
According to reports, the government of López Obrador was in talks to all migrants seeking asylum in the United States within the borders of Mexico. Almost immediately the idea appeared, cabinet members insisted that no decision had been made.
"It's a complicated situation, but AMLO also has the opportunity to seize this crisis and this great moment," said Claudia Masferrer, a migration expert at Colegio de México.
"In the short term, however, he has to deal with the migrants who arrive at the border and the tension in Tijuana," she added, highlighting the growing anger against migrants inside Mexico. "Even if AMLO has a high approval rate, it will create strong opposition against it."
First, Mr. López Obrador must "try to calm people down on December 1," he said, "because the situation is really hot right now."
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