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- Hurricane Michael has stepped up to become a Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Michael is expected to land on Wednesday on the northeastern Gulf Coast in Florida.
- A Category 4 or higher hurricane never touched land in the Florida Panhandle.
- Michael has sustained maximum winds of 130 mph.
- A dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and heavy rains are likely impacts of the storm.
- Hurricane warnings and storm warnings have been issued along the Gulf Coast of Florida.
- Warnings and alerts about tropical storms are posted along the southeastern coast, as far north as the outer banks.
- Heavy rains and strong winds will spread inland from the southeast after landing.
Hurricane Michael has stepped up to become what the National Hurricane Center calls a "hurricane category 4 extremely dangerous". The NHC said Michael could still strengthen before landing Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend areas. The storm will result in a life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and high winds at 130 mph.
"A potentially catastrophic event is developing," the national meteorological bureau in Tallahassee, Florida, wrote in its hurricane statement. Tuesday evening. "Places can be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
If Michael arrives ashore in category 4 According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a scientist specializing in tropical science at Colorado State University, this will be the most violent hurricane ever along the Florida Panhandle coast. In fact, all the Gulf Coast Florida north of Punta Gorda has never recorded a Category 4 cyclone or higher.
(PLUS: What is the frequency of Hurricane Category 3 and above in the United States in October?))
Michael is currently centered about 180 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida, and is moving north at 12 mph. It has become much better organized in recent hours.
Current state of the storm
(The tops of the highest clouds, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in bright red.The concentration, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)
A storm warning alert is in effect from the line between Okaloosa County and Walton Florida and the Anclote River, Florida. This means that a life-threatening flood is a hazard in the warning zone, in this case within 24 hours.
Stormwatch watches are in effect from Anclote River, Florida, to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay, and from the Alabama / Florida border to the Okaloosa County border. and from Walton, Florida. This means that a life-threatening flood is possible in the surveillance zone.
Watches and warnings against storm surges (From the National Hurricane Center.)
A hurricane warning is issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida, from the border between Alabama and Florida and the Suwanee River in Florida, including Pensacola, Panama City, Destin and Tallahassee. The hurricane warning also extends inland to southwest Georgia, including Albany. Hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before the expected arrival of tropical storm force winds (over 39 mph), when outdoor preparations become unsafe.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the border between Alabama and Florida to the border between Mississippi and Alabama, from the Suwannee River in Florida, to the south until 39. in Chassahowitzka, Florida and along the southeastern coast from Fernandina Beach, Florida to the South Santee River in South Carolina. . The tropical storm warning also extends to the inland south of Alabama and southwestern Georgia including Mobile, Alabama and Valdosta, Georgia ). This means that tropical storm force winds are expected somewhere in the warning zone within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watches have been posted from Chassahowitzka, Florida, to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay, from the Mississippi / Alabama border to the mouth of the Pearl River and along the southeastern coast of the South Santee River in South Carolina. in Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. This means that tropical storm force winds are possible within 48 hours.
Watches and Warnings (A watch means that hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, a warning means that these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Interests along the Northeastern Gulf Coast in Michael's Trail should be finished with preparations. Follow the advice of local authorities if you must evacuate, especially if you live in a place subject to storm surges.
(LATEST NEWS: The Gulf Coast is preparing for Hurricane Michael)
Provide
Timing
– Landings are most likely to occur on Wednesday afternoon on the Florida Panhandle
– The situation will begin to deteriorate early Wednesday on the northeast coast of the Gulf.
– After landing, Michael will accelerate inland in the southeastern United States, Wednesday night to Thursday evening, with gusty winds and torrential rains.
– Michael could improve precipitation in central Atlantic and southeastern New England on Thursday night and Friday.
Path projected (The shaded area in red indicates the potential trajectory of the center of the tropical cyclone.) Note that impacts (including heavy rains, strong waves, coastal floods) with any tropical cyclone can extend beyond the trajectory. provided.)
Intensity
– The National Hurricane Center states "that an extra boost is possible today before Michael landed in the Florida Panhandle area or in the Big Bend area of Florida".
Wind
– Hurricane force winds (over 100 km / h) are expected to arrive in the hurricane warning zone of the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
– Hurricane force winds will also spread inland in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
– Tropical storm force winds (over 39mph) are expected to arrive in the hurricane warning zone on the northeast Gulf Coast on Wednesday early.
– Tropical storm force winds are more likely to arrive in the tropical storm warning zone along the northeastern Gulf Coast early Wednesday and are possible in the tropical storm monitoring zone. at this time.
– Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive Wednesday in the tropical storm warning zone along the southeast coast of the United States and are possible in the tropical storm monitoring area at the end of Wednesday.
Probabilities of tropical storm wind (The contours above show the potential for high winds that cause tropical storms (at least 39mph), according to the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast.The probabilities may increase or decrease over time.)
– Generalized power outages, major tree damage and structural damage will occur along the nearby Michael Trail and just inland, where it will touch the panhandle of Florida.
– The widespread power outages could extend to parts of southern Georgia and the extreme southeast of Alabama, considering Michael's faster movement.
– Winds susceptible to power outages and at least some trees may also spread in parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas. This is of particular concern in areas where the soil is still saturated by the torrential rains of Florence in northeastern South Carolina and North Carolina.
– A forecast model of the University of Michigan suggests that there could be at least 2 million customers without electricity from Michael, from Florida to southeast Virginia.
– Metropolitan areas likely to experience power outages include: Tallahassee, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Columbia, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charleston, Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham.
Storm wave
Life-threatening floods will occur along the near shore and east of the center touching ground. Michael is expected to hit parts of the Gulf Coast of Florida that are particularly vulnerable to storm surges, particularly Apalachee Bay, south of Tallahassee.
The National Hurricane Center says water levels could rise to the following heights if the storm surge comes at high tide:
– From Mexico Beach to Keaton Beach, Florida: 9 to 13 feet
– Okaloosa / Walton County Line in Mexico Beach, Florida: 6 to 9 feet
– Keaton Beach to Cedar Key, Florida: 6 to 9 feet
– Cedar Key in Chassahowitzka, Florida: 4 to 6 feet
– From Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay: 2 to 4 feet
– Alabama / Florida border to the boundary between Okaloosa County and Walton, Florida: 2 to 4 feet
(MAP: Map of potential floods of storm surges)
Forecast of storm surges (From the National Hurricane Center.)
Here are the disturbing high tides that occurred at the beginning of Thursday for some localities in the area threatened by storm surges along the Gulf Coast of Florida (times are local):
– Panama City: 22:30 Wednesday
– Apalachicola: 16h39 and 18h10 Wednesday | Thursday at 4:58 pm
– Cedar key: 14h48 and 15h36 Wednesday | Thursday 3:18 pm
– Tampa Bay / St. Petersburg: 14h46 and 16h06 Wednesday | Thursday 3:09
On the southeastern coast of the United States, coastal winds and strong astronomical tides will also cause coastal flooding this week.
Charleston Harbor expected to experience minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide.
Some coastal floods will also occur as far west as the Texas coast, as noted on Monday. Bolivar Peninsula and South Padre Island.
The precipitations
– According to the National Hurricane Center, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend are expected to reach a total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches in southeast Alabama and southwestern and central Georgia. Locally, it is possible to rain up to a foot of rain. This can cause flash floods threatening life in some areas.
– The rest of Georgia, the Carolinas and southern Virginia can get 3 to 6 inches of rain, which can trigger flash floods. Locally, up to 8 inches is possible. This will include some areas devastated by the floods caused by Hurricane Florence. That said, this system will work quickly rather than stop as Florence did and will not bring significant rainfall.
– Rain in the Florida Peninsula, east-central Atlantic, and the south coast of New England can reach 1 to 3 inches
Precipitation forecast (This should be interpreted as an overview of where the heaviest rains can fall in. Larger amounts can occur when rains of rain drop for a few hours.)
tornadoes
– As it is typical of hurricanes, isolated tornadoes will be a threat on the east side of the storm.
– A tornado threat may develop in northern Florida, the northern Florida Peninsula and southern Georgia early Wednesday.
Check Weather.com throughout the week for more details on Michael's forecast.
History of the storm
Michael's outdoor rainbands have already soaked the Florida Keys on Monday. A gust of wind at 55 mph was measured at the office of the National Weather Service in Key West, Florida, late Monday afternoon, in association with Hurricane Michael's outside rainbands.
Michael quickly stepped up from 11:00 am EDT on Sunday at 11:00 am EDT on Monday, when his winds went from 35 mph to 75 mph during this 24 hour period.
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