Michigan State vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction

When: Noon, Saturday.

Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: Fox, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Ohio State by 3½.

Injury report

MSU

Out: WR Felton Davis III (torn left Achilles, season), P Jake Hartbarger (right leg, season); P Tyler Hunt (torn ACL, season), CB Tyson Smith (illness, season), TE Jonathan Brys (transfer). Questionable: RB LJ Scott (ankle), C Matt Allen (left foot), LG David Beedle (left arm); QB Brian Lewerke (right shoulder), FB Collin Lucas (uncisclosed), WR Laress Nelson (leg), WR C.J. Hayes (undisclosed), CB Josh Butler (undisclosed), CB Tre Person (undisclosed), DE Dillon Alexander (right leg), DT Mufi Hill-Hunt (knee), TE Noah Davis (undisclosed), LB Ed Warriner (undisclosed), LB Chase Kline (undisclosed), OL James Ohonba (undisclosed); Probable: CB Josiah Scott (left leg), WR Cody White (left hand), RG Kevin Jarvis (right leg).

Ohio State

Out: DE Nick Bosa (abdominal muscle, season), WR Austin Mack (foot), OL Brady Taylor (knee). Questionable: WR Cameron Brown (undisclosed), S Isaiah Pryor (undisclosed), CB Jeffrey Okudah (undisclosed), CB Sevyn Banks (undisclosed).

Connor Heyward had a career game against Maryland last week. (Photo: Gary Cameron, AP)

Scouting report

The Buckeyes are pedestrian by Ohio State’s standard on defense, with their 397.3 yards allowed per game ranking 69th nationally. Urban Meyer’s young secondary especially has been gashed, yielding 243.9 yards per game through the air.

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When Ohio State has the ball: Last week’s return of CB Josiah Scott got the defense to full strength on the starting front for the first time this season, and it helped offset injuries to Josh Butler and Tre Person that cut into MSU’s depth at cornerback. The Spartans produced one of their best defensive performances since 2012, holding the Terrapins to 100 total yards. MSU’s secondary held its first opponent this year to under 100 yards passing, improving to 98th nationally in pass defense (253.4 yards per game). The Spartans’ No. 1 run defense limited Maryland’s potent ground game to a season-worst 26 rushing yards, their total defense now ranks 22nd in the nation (325.1 yards per game, and their 19 points allowed per game is 16th. MSU also is strong on third down, with its 31.8 percent conversion rate ranking 13th.

The Buckeyes have ridden Dwayne Haskins’ big arm and the legs of J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber to become the No. 5 offense in FBS at 547.2 yards per game and No. 10 scoring team nationally at 42.2 points. Ohio State ranks third in passing offense at 369.1 yards per game, and55th in rushing at 178.1 yards. However, the Buckeyes have struggled in the red zone, converting 75.6 percent of their trips into points.

CLOSE

OSU receiver K.J. Hill talks about Michigan State’s run defense, ranked No. 1 in the nation
Jon Spencer, Reporter

Know the foe

New weapon: Haskins took over for the departed J.T. Barrett and has elevated the Buckeyes’ passing attack. The 6-foot-3, 218-pound redshirt sophomore leads the FBS with 32 touchdown passes and has thrown six interceptions, completing 242 of 347 passes (69.7 percent) for 3,053 yards. He owns the OSU single-game school passing record with 470 yards, along with the third- and fifth-best games after throwing for 400-plus in three straight games.

OSU running back J.K. Dobbins, now a sophomore, carves up the MSU defense last season. (Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier, Detroit Free Press)

Double trouble: Weber and Dobbins might be the best running back duo in the country, combining to average 143.4 yards per game with 10 touchdowns between them. Dobbins ran for 163 yards and three touchdowns, and Weber added 91 yards in last week’s 36-31 win over Nebraska. That snapped a streak of six straight games of less than 200 rushing yards for Ohio State. Weber, a junior from Detroit Cass Tech, had 162 yards and two TDs, and Dobbins ran for 124 yards in a 48-3 blowout of the Spartans last year.

Defensive downturn: Ohio State’s defense has looked mortal since the season-ending injury loss of DE Nick Bosa. The Buckeyes have given up 456.6 yards and 29.2 points per game in their past five outings, including a 49-20 beatdown by Purdue a week before the Spartans handled the Boilermakers, 23-13. Ohio State has given up 46 passing or running plays of 20-or-more yards this season. Purdue, in its upset win, gashed the Buckeyes for 539 yards.

Two cents

Urban Meyer, left, and Mark Dantonio meet, after the Spartans beat the Buckeyes in the 2013 Big Ten championship game. (Photo: AJ Mast, AP)

Strong rivalry: Dantonio is one of six coaches who have multiple wins over Urban Meyer at Ohio State since he arrived in Columbus in 2012. MSU beat the Buckeyes in the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game, then again in 2015 at Ohio Stadium. Three of the Spartans’ four losses to Meyer’s OSU teams have come by a combined 14 points, while last year’s 45-point beatdown was the largest margin of defeat ever for MSU against the Buckeyes.

Prediction

Ohio State 24, MSU 20: The Spartans have yet to face a quarterback the caliber of Haskins, and he and his weapons at receiver get a late score to win and take advantage of a banged-up secondary with Josiah Scott still returning to full strength. MSU moves the ball on offense, but can’t finish in the final quarter.

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