Mid-term election results: what does it all mean for Trump?

Democrats have regained power in the US federal government. The era of unified rule for Donald Trump and the Republicans is over.

Of course, qualifying a two-year "epoch" may seem like a difficult process, but at Trump's age, even days and weeks can seem like an endless and expanding series of news cycles.

Throughout his presidency, Mr. Trump benefited from a friendly convention, generally favorable to his words and deeds, respectful of his political priorities and respectful of control.

In two months, when the new democratically controlled House arrives in Washington, it will all change.

The House of Representatives, which has legitimately enacted strict immigration legislation, repeals Obamacare and drastically reduces social programs governed by the Republican regime – even though many bills have died in the Senate – will now begin to propose progressive priorities.

According to the likely Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, the first on the list is a set of government measures in the area of ​​ethics and electoral reform.

It is now the Democrats' turn to see their efforts languish in the Senate, but the Liberals finally have a platform to show what they would do with complete control of Congress – and possibly the presidency in 2020.

Meanwhile, Trump's only hope of getting signature laws is to work in the aisles, which can be a heavy burden for a man who has spent the past few months disparaging his political opponents with the language of the day. more cruel at rallies across the country.

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However, the president worries more immediately about the fact that Democrats now have a little courage behind their efforts to control his administration.

The House Intelligence Committee, which conducted the chamber's investigation into the interference of the Russian investigation in 2016, will be under the control of Trump's fierce antagonist, Adam Schiff, who Is committed to taking a closer look at the President's external financial transactions with the President.

It may be that the President 's tax declarations, the Holy Grail of some of the President' s liberal antagonists, are revealed to the public.

Other members of the Trump administration may also be subject to control. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke could be the first in the spotlight after being accused of taking official action in the service of his business interests.

Then there is the word i – impeachment.

It takes a simple majority of the House to take the first step to overthrow a president, and the Democrats now have that majority.

Until now, members of the leadership of the Democratic Congress have downplayed the prospect of launching this particular affair. If the special advocate Robert Mueller files his report on a possible collusion between Russia and Trump's 2016 presidential campaign in the coming days (weeks or months) and that it contains damning information, this calculation could quickly switch.

Although House Democrats have a brutal awakening for the President, the ability of Republicans to retain – and expand – their majority in the Senate is very good news for Trump.

The Conservative Republican Party's federal justice pipeline remains open. The president has already appointed 84 judges to the courts, including two judges of the Supreme Court. The Democrats are left in the hope that the four Liberal members of the bench will remain healthy for the next two years.

The Senate will also have less difficulty in confirming the appointment of new senior Trump administration officials who could have been stalled or significantly delayed if the Democrats took office.

It is thus easier for the president to sack and replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions "besieged" by someone who would put a damper on Mr. Mueller's investigation of Russia.

At some point, the president may even decide to appoint a new director of the Environmental Protection Agency, a post that has been filled on an interim basis since Scott Pruitt's resignation on July 6 under an ethical cloud.

Beyond the fictitious reality of congressional control of the Congress, the mid-term deadlines have more important implications for Mr. Trump's political power – and his prospects for reelection.

For two years, he ruled the country with the aim of satisfying his loyal base both in terms of politics and rhetoric – in terms of trade, immigration, government regulation and foreign policy. Unlike its predecessors, it has made little effort to expand its national appeal.

This has probably helped his party win Senate seats in states where the president remains popular, but the verdict was far from universal. Joe Manchin once again challenged political gravity in West Virginia and competitions in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania that seemed within reach in the days following the president's victory in 2016 were a victory comfortable for Democratic holders.

Meanwhile, the choir preaching strategy can be costly in traditionally Republican suburban congressional districts with a richer and better educated population. These voters remained blocked by Mr. Trump in 2016, but they deserted his party en masse this year.

If this trend continues, states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan could prove more difficult to lead by the president during a re-election campaign in 2020. Mr. Trump liked brag about all House Republicans who won special elections under his administration, but this time, voters going to the polls across the country, his political losses counted a lot of bodies.

If Mr. Trump is considering his chances of re-election – and, let's be honest, that every first-term president is almost counting from the day of the inauguration – Tuesday's results, however, offer some positive points.

A Republican follower of Trump, Ron DeSantis, won the governor's residence in Florida, as did the Republicans of Iowa and Ohio. If Mr. Trump's party can win all the states in these battlefields in the current political climate, there is no reason to think that they will no longer be able to backtrack with the president in two years.

Even the transfer of power to Democrats in the House of Representatives can have a positive side for the president. He will now have someone to blame if the economy is deteriorating (and perhaps, given the realities of the business cycle). He has a ready explanation as to why he can not do anything in the next two years – and an idea of ​​what needs to change in the next election.

Day after day he will have a set of clear political opponents to contrast with him.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both lost control of the House in their first term and were re-elected. The story, as a guide, predicted that it would probably be a bad night for the president.

The story also indicates that even though the road is rocky, better days might be ahead.