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Where we called in Nebraska 2
Each point shows one of the 1073 the calls we made.
Choice of vote: Dem. representative Do not know I did not answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
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Kara Eastman is the founder of a non-profit public health organization.
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Don Bacon is the current representative and a veteran of the Air Force.
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This relatively urban district is the most liberal part of a strongly Republican state and Democrats see their best opportunities in Nebraska. He went for the Republican candidate in the last two presidential elections, but chose Barack Obama in 2008.
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Eastman, the Democratic challenger, won a first surprise victory over a settlement candidate, the man who had been in the 2014-2016 seat. She was primarily interested in single payer health care, an increase minimum wage and with no restrictions on abortion. .
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She says she would support the replacement of Nancy Pelosi as a speaker in the House in 2019.
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Mr. Bacon, a retired Air Force star general, was elected in 2016. He focused on his military experience to defeat the Democratic candidate for a term. In this election season, he has collected about twice as much as Ms. Eastman.
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In the run-up to the elections, both candidates sought to claim the middle. At a forum held in September, they found a common ground on the need to revise immigration and combat climate change.
Results of previous elections:
| 2016 President | +2 trump |
| President 2012 | +7 Romney |
| 2016 House | +1 rep. |
It is usually best to look at one survey in other surveys:
| Polls | Appointment | Eastman | Bacon | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRCC (R.) | May 16 | 40% | 50% | Bacon +10 |
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Our participation model
There is a big question above the standard error margin in a poll: who will vote? This is a particularly difficult issue this year, as special elections have shown that Democrats voted in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about the probability that they vote with information about the frequency with which they voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people to the word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we have spoken to 126 other constituents, we will show you the results of our survey under different participation scenarios.
Our survey under different participation scenarios
| Who will vote? | East. s & # 39; be | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | – | – |
| People who say that they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | – | – |
| People whose voting history suggests that they will vote no matter what they say | – | – |
| People who say that they will vote, adjusted for past levels of veracity | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | 182k | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | 264K | – |
| Every active registered voter | 357k | – |
The types of people we have reached so far
Even if we get a perfectly correct participation, the margin of error would not reflect the entire error in a survey. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We dont do.
Respondents are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically committed to accurately represent everyone.
How far have we managed to reach different types of voters?
| 18 to 29 | 93 | 2 | 1 of 47 | 8% | 11% |
| 30 to 64 | 744 | 15 | 1 of 50 | 63% | 61% |
| 65 and over | 234 | 7 | 1 of 33 | 29% | 28% |
| Male | 485 | 14 | 1 of 35 | 58% | 47% |
| Female | 587 | 10 | 1 of 59 | 42% | 53% |
| White | 824 | 20 | 1 of 41 | 82% | 78% |
| Not white | 140 | 2 | 1 out of 70 | 8% | 11% |
| Cell | 1062 | 24 | 1 of 44 | 100% | – |
| Fixed line | 10 | – | – | – | – |
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from underrepresented groups.
We did not have enough answers to start weighing, even though we adapt to the question of whether people will vote from the start. Our numbers are particularly unreliable right now.
Once we have talked to more voters, we will show you other common ways of weighting a poll.
Our survey under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Our estimate | – |
| Do not weigh on education, like many polls in 2016 | – |
| Do not weigh by party registration, like most public polls | – |
| Weight using census data rather than voting records, like most public polls | – |
Undecided voters
We have not reached enough undecided voters to say much about them.
Problems and other issues
We ask voters about health care and ask them if they support the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court.
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's work as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors n = 24 | 54% | 38% | 8% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or do you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Representatives keep house | Dems. take the house | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors n = 24 | 58% | 38% | 4% |
Do you support or oppose the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court?
| support | s & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors n = 24 | 50% | 34% | 17% |
Do you support the creation of a national insurance program, in which every American would be insured by a single government scheme?
| Support | S & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors n = 24 | 42% | 41% | 17% |
Are you in favor of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare?
| Support | S & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors n = 24 | 41% | 55% | 4% |
Do you or someone in your family have a pre-existing condition such as asthma, heart disease or diabetes?
| No | Yes | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors n = 24 | 43% | 57% | – |
What are the different types of voters
Voters in the country are deeply divided along demographic lines. But do not overinterpret these paintings. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be particularly careful with groups of less than 100 respondents, presented here in tapes.
Genre
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = ten / 40% of the voters | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| Male 14 / 60% | 31% | 62% | 7% |
Age
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 2 / 8% of the voters | 49% | 51% | – |
| 30 to 44 3 / 12% | 67% | 33% | – |
| 45 to 64 12 / 51% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| 65 and over 7 / 28% | 15% | 85% | – |
Race
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White n = 22 / 94% of the voters | 38% | 58% | 4% |
| Not white 1 / 4% | 100% | – | – |
Race and education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not white n = 1 / 4% of the voters | 100% | – | – |
| White, graduated from college 13 / 53% | 39% | 61% | – |
| White, not graduated from college 9 / 40% | 37% | 53% | ten% |
Education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or less n = 4 / 17% of the voters | – | 75% | 25% |
| Some college educ. 6 / 26% | 57% | 34% | 8% |
| College Grad 4 years. 9 / 38% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Diploma 5 / 20% | 21% | 79% | – |
Party
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| democrat n = 5 / 19% of the voters | 89% | – | 11% |
| Republican 12 / 50% | – | 100% | – |
| Independent 7 / 31% | 73% | 13% | 13% |
| Another party 0 | – | – | – |
Party registration
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 8 / 31% of the voters | 80%. | 13% | 7% |
| Republican 13 / 54% | 8% | 85% | 8% |
| Other 3 / 15% | 72% | 28% | – |
Intention to vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain n = 18 / 78% of the voters | 45% | 49% | 5% |
| Very probable 5 / 19% | 21% | 79% | – |
| Fairly likely 0 | – | – | – |
| Probably not 1 / 2% | – | – | 100% |
| Not at all likely 0 | – | – | – |
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