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Where we will call in Washington 8
Choice of vote: Dem. representative Do not know I did not answer
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
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Kim Schrier is a pediatrician and a candidate for the first time.
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Dino Rossi is a former lawmaker recognized by several campaigns across the country.
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This open seat has sparked national interest as a potential for Democrats.
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This district has never sent a Democrat to the House, but he has regularly voted for the Democrats in the presidential elections. Congressman Dave Reichert's decision to retire was a fatal blow to the Republicans' chances of retaining their sequence. He even held the district during the 2006 and 2008 democratic elections.
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Mr. Rossi is considered one of the best Republican recruits of the cycle, and his candidacy is one of the main reasons why he is still considered a high level race. He raised nearly $ 3 million.
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Mr. Rossi was a state senator and has repeatedly sought state-wide offices, twice appearing as governor and once in the US Senate. He has won this district every time.
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Schrier focuses on health care and said the Republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act has prompted her to run for office.
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The district's bizarre border, which includes wealthy high-tech suburbs and Boeing facilities to the west and cherry and apple farms across the waterfalls, makes it vulnerable to the president's commercial actions.
Results of previous elections:
| 2016 President | +3 Clinton |
| President 2012 | +2 Obama |
| 2016 House | +20 rep. |
It is usually best to look at one survey in other surveys:
| Polls | Appointment | Schrier | Rossi | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBA Strategies (RE.) n = 300 lv | April 18-22 | 45% | 51% | Rossi +6 |
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Our participation model
There is a big question above the standard error margin in a poll: who will vote? This is a particularly difficult issue this year, as special elections have shown that Democrats voted in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about the probability that they vote with information about the frequency with which they voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people to the word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we have spoken to 150 constituents, we will show you the results of our survey under different participation scenarios.
Our survey under different participation scenarios
| Who will vote? | East. s & # 39; be | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | – | – |
| People who say that they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | – | – |
| People whose voting history suggests that they will vote no matter what they say | – | – |
| People who say that they will vote, adjusted for past levels of veracity | – | – |
| Every active registered voter | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | – | – |
The types of people we have reached so far
Even if we get a perfectly correct participation, the margin of error would not reflect the entire error in a survey. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We dont do.
Respondents are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically committed to accurately represent everyone.
How far have we managed to reach different types of voters?
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 to 64 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – | – | – |
| Female | – | – | – | – | – |
| White | – | – | – | – | – |
| Not white | – | – | – | – | – |
| Cell | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fixed line | – | – | – | – | – |
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from underrepresented groups. Once we have talked to more voters, we will show you other common ways of weighting a poll.
Our survey under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Our estimate | – |
| Do not weigh on education, like many polls in 2016 | – |
| Do not weigh by primary vote, like most public polls | – |
| Weight using census data rather than voting records, like most public polls | – |
Undecided voters
We have not reached enough undecided voters to say much about them.
Problems and other issues
We ask voters about health care and their support for Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court.
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's work as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or do you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Representatives keep house | Dems. take the house | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Do you support or oppose the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court?
| support | s & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Do you support the creation of a national insurance program, in which every American would be insured by a single government scheme?
| Support | S & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Are you in favor of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare?
| Support | S & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Do you or someone in your family have a pre-existing condition such as asthma, heart disease or diabetes?
| Yes | No | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
What are the different types of voters
Voters in the country are deeply divided along demographic lines. But do not overinterpret these paintings. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable.
Genre
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – |
Age
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – |
| 30 to 44 | – | – | – |
| 45 to 64 | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – |
Race
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | – | – | – |
| Not white | – | – | – |
Race and education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not white | – | – | – |
| White, graduated from college | – | – | – |
| White, not graduated from college | – | – | – |
Education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or less | – | – | – |
| Some college educ. | – | – | – |
| College Grad 4 years. | – | – | – |
| Diploma | – | – | – |
Party
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Independent | – | – | – |
| Another party | – | – | – |
Primary vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Other | – | – | – |
Intention to vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | – | – | – |
| Very probable | – | – | – |
| Fairly likely | – | – | – |
| Probably not | – | – | – |
| Not at all likely | – | – | – |
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