[ad_1]
Where we will call:
Choice of vote: Dem. representative Do not know Did not answer
Explore the 2016 elections in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
-
Bill Nelson is the incumbent, elected for the first time in Congress in 1978 and in the Senate in 2000.
-
Rick Scott is in his second term as governor of Florida; he became rich as a health leader.
-
The country's largest battlefield state has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1996. President Trump won by just one percentage point in 2016. Polls indicate that the Florida Senate could be again close.
-
It's one of the most expensive Senate races in the country and perhaps the most grudging. In their only debate, Mr. Scott accused Mr. Nelson of having accomplished little in four decades in Congress. Mr. Nelson has accused Mr. Scott of frequent lies and multiple conflicts of interest. The second debate was delayed because of Hurricane Michael then canceled.
-
Mr. Scott, who, if elected, would be one of the richest members of the next Congress, put $ 73.8 million of his assets into a blind trust, but the Times found that He had many ways to know about investments.
-
Scott chairs a rebounding economy, but he can not run for a third term. After entering politics as a favorite of the Tea Party, he changed the subject. He is now advocating the legal protection of immigrant "Dreamers" and the limitation of offshore oil drilling. This year, he signed a law restricting gun restrictions after mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland.
-
Other issues are health care – Mr. Nelson blames Scott for not wanting to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act – and the responsibility for a red tide outbreak on Florida's beaches .
-
Men are fighting for a big Hispanic vote. Mr. Scott made frequent visits to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, but Mr. Nelson was approved by his governor, Ricardo Rosselló.
Results of previous elections:
| President 2016 | +1 asset |
| President 2012 | +1 Obama |
It is generally preferable to examine a single survey in the context of other surveys:
Our participation model
An important question is added to the standard margin of error of a poll: who will vote? This is a particularly difficult issue this year, as special elections have shown that Democrats voted in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about their likelihood of voting with information about the frequency with which they voted in the past. In previous races, this approach was more accurate than simply taking people to the word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we have spoken to 150 constituents, we will show you the results of our survey based on several participation scenarios.
Our survey under different participation scenarios
| Who will vote? | Is. s & # 39; be | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | – | – |
| People who are almost certain to vote, and no one else | – | – |
| People whose voting history suggests voting no matter what they say | – | – |
| People who say that they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truth | – | – |
| Every active registered voter | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | – | – |
The types of people we have reached so far
Even if the participation rate was correct, the margin of error would not capture all the errors of a survey. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We dont do.
Respondents are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically committed to accurately represent everyone.
How did we manage to reach different types of voters
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 to 64 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – | – | – |
| Female | – | – | – | – | – |
| White | – | – | – | – | – |
| Not white | – | – | – | – | – |
| Cell | – | – | – | – | – |
| Landline | – | – | – | – | – |
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to underrepresented groups. Once we have talked to more voters, we will show you other common ways of weighting a poll.
Our survey under different weighting systems
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Our estimate | – |
| Do not weight through education, as in many polls in 2016 | – |
| Do not weigh by party registration, as in most public polls | – |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, as in most public polls | – |
Undecided voters
We still do not have enough undecided voters to say a lot about that.
Problems and other issues
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's work as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Who would you like to see control of the US Senate?
| Dem. | representative | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
If the general election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Florida Amendment 4, which would automatically restore the voting rights of those convicted of crime, with the exception of the convicted of murder or sexual offense once their sentence ends including prison, parole and probation? Would you like to vote yes or no on amendment 4?
| Yes | No | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
What types of voters said
Voters in the country are deeply divided according to demographic criteria. But do not overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable.
Sex
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – |
Age
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – |
| 30 to 44 | – | – | – |
| 45 to 64 | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – |
Race and education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not white | – | – | – |
| White, graduate | – | – | – |
| White, not a student | – | – | – |
Education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or less | – | – | – |
| Some College Educ. | – | – | – |
| 4 years university graduate. | – | – | – |
| Post-grad. | – | – | – |
Party
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Independent | – | – | – |
| Another party | – | – | – |
Registration of the party
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Other | – | – | – |
Intention to vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | – | – | – |
| Very probable | – | – | – |
| Rather likely | – | – | – |
| Probably not | – | – | – |
| Not at all likely | – | – | – |
Source link
