Mid-term elections: Trump effect weighs on US economic boom

It may be appalling to relatives in his native Belgium, not to mention the family of his wife in Mexico, but Laurent Deconinck considers himself a passionate Donald Trump politician. The benefits, he says, while walking in his factory in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, are all around him.

Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports can increase metal costs, but Deconinck passes them on to customers – clearly detailed in his invoices. At the same time, investment deductions encouraged by Republican tax cuts have provided funds for the purchase of new kits for the manufacture of metal components, he said, signaling a $ 300,000 machine he bought.

And last year, the prospect of a trade war with Beijing drove a customer who sold clogged pet knee braces to abandon a Chinese supplier and entrust the work to Deconinck's plant in Minnesota.

"Many people do not want to be associated with Trump because they do not endure the rude language and meanness of what he says, but they love the action," he says, elevating voice on the din of the production of his company Machining Technology. Mr. Trump "is trying something new".

Americans will go to the polls on November 6 in a mid-term election likely to overthrow or overthrow the Trump presidency.

Faced with the threat of losing one or even both houses of Congress, which could pave the way for many investigations into Trump White House, Republicans are counting on a thriving economy to give themselves a head start on voters in places like Minneapolis.

The unemployment rate in the metropolis is 2.6%, less than in any other urban area of ​​the United States with at least 1 million inhabitants and far from the 8% unemployment rate that prevailed in the region during the crisis financial.

Yet, as the president prepares to travel to Minnesota on Thursday to galvanize his party, state Republicans view the elections with concern. Two Republican deputies stationed in the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul are threatened. The Republican candidate for governorship, Jeff Johnson, who enthusiastically embraced Trump, remained in a recent poll conducted behind Tim Walz of the Democratic-Peasant-Labor Party – the Democratic affiliate in Minnesota. And Democrats seek to break the Republicans' leadership in the state legislature.

In simple terms, the President's message of economic resurgence may resonate with business owners such as Mr. Deconinck, but he is drowned in many parts of the state under Trump's polarizing influence as well as on very busy issues like health care and appointment. Brett Kavanaugh at the Supreme Court.

According to Real Clear Politics, Democrats are 7.4% ahead of Republicans in polls for the November parliamentary elections.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Center showed that while there was strong interest from both parties, 67 percent of US Democratic voters were more enthusiastic than usual at the idea. to vote, exceeding 59% of Republicans. This reinforces the Democrats' hope of winning at least one of the two houses of Congress.

"Let's just say that many Democrats would like to vote now," said RT Rybak, a former Democrat Mayor of Minneapolis.

For many Republican candidatesthe economy, rising stock markets and December tax cuts are the cornerstone of their attempt to retain power in Washington and state capitals. Congressman Jason Lewis, for example, facing a fierce battle for suburban voters against Angie Craig, a former health care technology executive, brought home the bonus that he said had unblocked by the tax reduction package.

In June, Trump told a rally in the town of Duluth, near the Iron Range mining area in Minnesota, that wages were rising for the first time in 20 years and no one had ever seen the type of growth he chaired. Leaving aside the inaccuracies in his statements, the president had many reasons to praise the expansion of the United States. Annualized growth across the country has been at its fastest pace in four years in the second quarter, reaching 4%, and the Federal Reserve predicts that unemployment will fall to a near record lows of 3.5% year-over-year. next.

Fed Chairman Jay Powell said that if tariffs were detrimental to some manufacturers, no damage was still visible in the aggregate data. Indeed, the manufacturing sector, a key sector for Minnesota, has created more than 7,400 jobs over the past year, while the construction workforce has grown by more than 6,800. Vacancies, up 16% over one year, broke records.

Less skilled workers are starting to feel more benefits. Hourly wages for jobs for applicants with a high school diploma are announced at a median rate of $ 14 an hour, up 15% from the last two years, according to government figures of the state.

Although the Minneapolis-St. Paul area suffers from serious deprivation, companies believe that the biggest obstacle to their growth is the lack of candidates to fill vacant positions. Data from the State Department of Employment and Economic Development show that there are two vacant positions for every unemployed person in the metropolitan area, resulting in a frantic rush for workers.

Jim Johnson, who heads two companies of the recruitment company Express Employment Professionals, said clients were simplifying criminal background checks and drug testing, as well as stricter requirements for candidates to upgrade their wardrobes. before starting a new job because they fear could deter candidates.

Lucas Nathan, a 22-year-old welder who recently left North Carolina, said he got his first job in the area as a result of a single phone interview. In September, he got a new job in less than a week after being offered to three of the four companies surveyed. Two of them tried to outbid the employer for which he had opted.

"I was very surprised to see how easy it was," he says, sitting in a local cafe in Minneapolis. "Welders are needed everywhere. The economy is rising – a lot of people are starting businesses. "

Yet, Mr. Nathan, who says he will likely vote for the Republican party in November, does not seem to associate economic growth with the policies put in place since the election of Mr. Trump. Strikingly, the late September Pew poll showed Republicans and Democrats to position themselves at the national level in terms of voters' views on the best for managing the economy.

While Republicans highlight the December tax cuts as they welcome an economic rebound begun eight years ago under Barack Obama, some have also privately acknowledged the success of the Democrats in presenting the tax package as a gift for big and rich companies.

Rhonda Sivarajah, chairman of the Anoka County Board of Directors, which stretches north of Minneapolis, is concerned that the favorable economic environment could prompt Republican voters to show half-hearted appeasement.

"They feel that" my life is beautiful, that the economy is doing well ", they do not have the same level of energy. They take it for granted," says she.

According to a Republican from Minnesota, a recent private poll showed that the economy and jobs were removed from the list of voters' concerns, with health care becoming the top priority.

The Republican says that in affluent suburbs Democrats' support could increase because of women 's anger at Trump' s behavior and worry that Republican politics could hurt coverage of people with pre-existing health conditions.

This feeling can have an impact on Republicans in congressional races in neighborhoods around the twin cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Wine Weber, a former Minnesota Republican congressman turned lobbyist, said Republicans living in the suburbs are struggling to part with the president in an attempt to attract independent voters, while still appealing to the grass roots. motivated by Mr. Trump.

Erik Paulsen, a Republican member of the Congress since 2009 and whose district is located in the prosperous western part of the metropolitan area, is likely to lose his seat, according to the latest polls. While campaigning on the strength of the economy, strategists say the race in his district is dominated by other issues, including the president's personality.

This does not mean that Democrats triumph. The party may well cling to both seats in the Minnesota Senate, but its chances of gaining overall control of the chamber are far more distant.

As Democrats seek gains in urban and suburban areas, Trump's support remains strong in rural Minnesota. The first congressional district, in the south of the state, and the eighth district encompassing the Iron Range mining area, both elected as Democratic Party candidates in 2016, are yet facing powerful challengers Republicans.

The Kavanaugh audience, in which the Supreme Court candidate reacted to allegations that he sexually assaulted another teenager in the 1980s with a denial of anger, added an additional unpredictable element to the election.

Patrick Garofalo, Republican Representative to the State Legislature, says that Mr. Trump is, like Mr. Kavanaugh, a polarizing character for the electorate. But to this day, he argues, Republicans have come to have the best of both worlds.

Trump has drawn new members into the Republican coalition in Minnesota, but at the same time, party members who do not like the president do not pick on local candidates, did they? he declares. "A strong economy benefits incumbents: when the economy is doing well, voters are less likely to want to overthrow someone," he adds.

Still, Mr. Trump will be the generic factor in polls across the country. His personal approval ratings remained depressed by an avalanche of good news on the economy, including renewed optimism among consumers.

"Donald Trump, whether you like it or not, is the number one issue in this election," said Margaret Anderson Kelliher, former Democratic Party chairman at the Minnesota House. "His behavior is a particular motivator for people who are outraged."

The optimistic atmosphere of Mr. Deconinck and his fellow business owners is not necessarily reflected in their own workshops.

Terry Hill does not give Mr. Trump any credit for his booming economy. The Machining Technology employee missed the 2016 election due to the indifference of both candidates, but Hill is now preparing to vote in mid-term and against Trump's presidency.

"As a country, we must remove him from office as soon as possible," he said. "I have to vote Democrat to take control of the Senate and / or House and facilitate that. That's all it is about.