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Where we will call:
Choice of vote: Dem. representative Do not know Did not answer
Explore the 2016 elections in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
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Sean Casten is a scientist and a businessman of clean energy.
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Peter Roskam is the current representative and a former lawyer. He voted for the tax reform bill and to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
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The Sixth of Illinois is emblematic of a type of district that might decide to take control of the House: a well-educated suburb who voted for Hillary Clinton but who usually has a Republican vote and a strong power against a newcomer policy.
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(We interviewed this district from September 4 to 6 and found a close race.)
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This district, in the western suburbs of Chicago, has a median income of nearly $ 100,000.
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Mr. Roskam won by 18 points in 2016 and started the summer with a four-fold cash advance, a major advantage in an expensive media market. But Mr. Casten has significantly narrowed the gap.
Results of previous elections:
| President 2016 | +7 Clinton |
| President 2012 | +8 Romney |
| House 2016 | +18 Rep. |
It is generally preferable to examine a single survey in the context of other surveys:
Our participation model
An important question is added to the standard margin of error of a poll: who will vote? This is a particularly difficult issue this year, as special elections have shown that Democrats voted in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about their likelihood of voting with information about the frequency with which they voted in the past. In previous races, this approach was more accurate than simply taking people to the word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we have spoken to 150 constituents, we will show you the results of our survey based on several participation scenarios.
Our survey under different participation scenarios
| Who will vote? | Is. s & # 39; be | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | – | – |
| People who are almost certain to vote, and no one else | – | – |
| People whose voting history suggests voting no matter what they say | – | – |
| People who say that they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truth | – | – |
| Every active registered voter | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | – | – |
The types of people we have reached so far
Even if the participation rate was correct, the margin of error would not capture all the errors of a survey. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We dont do.
Respondents are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically committed to accurately represent everyone.
How did we manage to reach different types of voters
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 to 64 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – | – | – |
| Female | – | – | – | – | – |
| White | – | – | – | – | – |
| Not white | – | – | – | – | – |
| Cell | – | – | – | – | – |
| Landline | – | – | – | – | – |
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to underrepresented groups. Once we have talked to more voters, we will show you other common ways of weighting a poll.
Our survey under different weighting systems
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Our estimate | – |
| Do not weight through education, as in many polls in 2016 | – |
| Do not be weighted by the main vote, as most public polls | – |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, as in most public polls | – |
Undecided voters
We still do not have enough undecided voters to say a lot about that.
Problems and other issues
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's work as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or do you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Reps. Keep the house | Dems. take the house | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
What types of voters said
Voters in the country are deeply divided according to demographic criteria. But do not overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable.
Sex
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – |
Age
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – |
| 30 to 44 | – | – | – |
| 45 to 64 | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – |
Race
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | – | – | – |
| Not white | – | – | – |
Race and education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not white | – | – | – |
| White, graduate | – | – | – |
| White, not a student | – | – | – |
Education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or less | – | – | – |
| Some College Educ. | – | – | – |
| 4 years university graduate. | – | – | – |
| Post-grad. | – | – | – |
Party
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Independent | – | – | – |
| Another party | – | – | – |
Primary vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Other | – | – | – |
Intention to vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | – | – | – |
| Very probable | – | – | – |
| Rather likely | – | – | – |
| Probably not | – | – | – |
| Not at all likely | – | – | – |
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