Mid-term voter enthusiasm reaches historical levels

October 28, 2018 / 13:50 GMT

By Dante Chinni and Sally Bronston

WASHINGTON – This year's midterm elections have many unknowns, but one thing seems clear: a lot of people are going to vote. Poll data in the early rounds, the signs indicate that 2018 will be a medium-term success in terms of voter turnout.

Last week, NBC News / Wall Street Journal revealed truly remarkable figures for the percentage of voters very interested in elections.

Overall, 65% of respondents said they were very interested in these mid-term elections. This figure is higher than any number seen recently. The closest election was 2006, when 61% said they were very interested in this medium term. In addition, the data trend is valid for a wide range of demographic groups, from women to Democrats and Republicans, to white, African-American and Hispanic voters.

Beyond the polls, there is more concrete evidence that voters are preparing for November. Regarding the advance polls that have already been cast, the number of ballots cast two weeks ahead of 2016. More than 8.1 million people have already voted in 2018, according to TargetSmart data. Two weeks before polling day in 2016, the figure was 7.9 million.

Even taking into account the increasing number of anticipated votes in each election, these figures suggest an impressive level of voter involvement. Do not forget that these numbers compare this mid-term electorate to the last presidential one.

But the figures are even more remarkable when you compare the 2018 advance vote to the early vote in the last half of 2014, in the states with key races.

Georgia, Tennessee and Texas each recorded an increase of more than 500,000 anticipated votes from the same point in the 2014 election. According to TargetSmart data, in each of these states, the early 2018 vote has more than doubled compared to the same point in 2014.

And the vote in all these states this year is similar to that of 2014 – they each have a run in the Senate and the governorship this year, just as they did in 2014.

Arizona, Florida and Nevada, three other states that did not hold major Senate races this year and did not have one in 2014, are also seeing their numbers grow substantially – all of them two figures in terms of percentages.

None of this indicates who the electors of these states will ultimately choose. There are "models" for what the vote so far looks like, and in some states, numbers of how many Democrats and Republicans have voted, but the fact is that we will not know the results until votes are counted.

The data, however, clearly suggest a point. Whatever happens when everything is counted, no matter who wins or wins, it will be difficult for anyone to cite voter apathy as the cause. These figures show an electorate involved in the 2018 election and ready to show it to the polls. This is what a committed population looks like.