Midterms: Winners and losers

Tuesday was the most anticipated, most excited – and probably the most watched mid-term election of modern times.

The reason was simple: it was widely considered a referendum President TrumpDonald John TrumpMidterms: Winners and Losers GOP Representative, Mike Bost, re-elected to Illinois Sisolak becomes the first Dem to win the Nevada Governor's Run since 1994 MORE.

Still, the verdict is far from clear as the dust starts to settle.

Tuesday was an election night where the most important figures on either side were neither winners nor losers.

MIXED

President Trump

The bottom line: the president's party has lost its majority in the House of Representatives.

It is an extremely important development. This is not just an injury to political pride. This entails the specter of ongoing turmoil.

Democrats will now take over the committees of the House and, most importantly, have the ability to summon whomever they want. This could cause real problems for Trump, his administration and even his associates.

But it could have been a lot worse.

Democrats will likely win about 35 seats in the House, although the results are not yet final. This is very much in line with the historical standards of the president's party in his first half term.

In the first half-term of President Obama, in 2010, the Democrats experienced a disastrous night, losing 63 seats. In 1994, President Clinton saw his party lose 54 seats.

Just as importantly, Republicans have exceeded expectations in the Senate, sweeping at least three Democrats from the upper house. Meaning. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyMidterms: The Winners and the Losers The Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with Larger Majority McConnell thanks Trump as first results favor Senate GOP PLUS (Indiana.), Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampMidterms: winners and losers Senate GOP exceeds expectations with an enlarged majority McConnell thanks Trump as early results favor Senate GOP PLUS (N.D.) and Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMidterms: Winners and losers Senate GOP surpasses expectations with expanded majority McConnell thanks Trump as first results support Senate GOP PLUS (MB) all lost, while fellow Senator Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonMidterms: The Winners and the Losers The Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with an Enlarged Majority Five Conclusions to Remember from a Mid-term Election That Split into More Divisions (Fla.) Trained his rival GOP.

The GOP suffered its only loss in the Senate after 2 am Wednesday, when Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenMidterms: Winners and losers Sisolak becomes the first Dem to win the Nevada governor's race since 1994 The GOP Senate exceeds expectations with an enlarged majority NEXT (D) had to oust Sen sitting Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerMidterms: Winners and losers Sisolak becomes the first Dem to win the race for the governor of Nevada since 1994 The Senate of the GOP exceeds expectations with an enlarged majority NEXT (R) Nevada.

But this Democratic victory could be neutralized by results in Montana, where Sen sat. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterMidterms: Winners and Losers Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with Enlarged Majority GOP will retain majority in Senate PLUS (D) was slightly behind the GOP challenger, Matt Rosendale, in the early hours of Wednesday.

Trump will argue without a doubt that the Senate's performance at the GOP is high.

During President's protests in the last days of the campaign, he traveled twice to Indiana, Missouri, and Florida, three of the states where the GOP had the best results.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, press secretary at the White House, told reporters that until most of the races in which the president competed were winning, the candidates are doing extremely well.

The consequences of the loss of the House may take some time before being felt at the Oval Office.

But for the moment, the president will focus on some important cash liners.

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas)

O'Rourke was undoubtedly the liberal star of the medium-term cycle.

His offer to overthrow outgoing President Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzMidterms: winners and losers Senate GOP exceeds expectations with an enlarged majority Blue wave clashes with Trump's red wall PLUS (R-Texas) captivated the Liberals' imagination far beyond the Lone Star State – and garnered acres of positive media coverage.

O'Rourke raised a whopping $ 38.1 million in the third quarter – a figure that has never been equaled in any Senate race.

But he lost again, in the end.

Cruz was projected winner around 22h20. Eastern time Tuesday night. Early Wednesday, with 97% of the reported cases, his lead was about 3 percentage points.

The charisma and the perceived authenticity of O'Rourke allow him to maintain a passionate passion. And he can pretty well point out the tremendous progress he has made – Cruz had won by 15 points in 2012.

But a loss is always a loss. If Mr. O. Rourke has new political ambitions – and there is every reason to believe that he may be a candidate for the presidency – he will have to pursue them without any platform in elected office.

WINNERS

House Democrats

It was a strong night for the Democrats in the House. The result is in line with expectations – not a dazzling victory, but not a squeaker either.

On Wednesday, at 2:30 am, the New York Times provided for a democratic popular vote margin of more than 7 percentage points and a 23-seat majority.

Democrats will return to the presidency – probably, but not definitely, for the current leader of minorities Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia's Alesandro PelosiMidterms: Winners and losers Ryan midway through: "Tonight's story is repeated" Spillover of the elections: to watch now MORE (D-Calif).

They will be able to block the essentials of the president's national agenda. They may also initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump if they wish – even if the enthusiasm generated by this tactic is much less clear among party leaders than among grassroots supporters.

This is a result that will change Capitol Hill's dynamics – and expose Trump to a meticulous scrutiny that he has never faced before.

Republican Senate

Realistically, the night could not have been better organized for the GOP in the Senate. With two competitive races still outstanding – in Arizona and Montana – they won between two and four seats.

Two would be a solid show. Four would be at the top of the Republican expectations.

Republicans also rejected the democratic challenges in the two states where the opposition party was likely to succeed.

Besides the victory of Cruz, Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnMidterms: Winners and Losers The Senate GOP exceeds expectations with the expansion of the majority of Trump supporters and the celebration of a party in the middle of returning elections MORE (D) easily beat Democratic opponent Phil Bredesen, a former governor, in Tennessee.

That's enough to make the Senate majority leader smile even more Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMidterms: Winners and Losers Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with Larger Majority Defeating Heller Defender at Nevada PLUS Senate RunThe face (R-Ky.). Trump and McConnell telephoned to congratulate each other on the successes of the night.

Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownMidterms: Winners and Losers Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with Larger Majority Renewed in Kasich After Defeat for "Dividing the Country" Against Trump MORE (D-OH)

Brown, an often neglected figure, proved his political appeal on Tuesday.

He was reelected by more than 6 points in Ohio – a state that President Trump had raised by 9 points in 2016. Brown's accomplishments were all the more remarkable as his party's candidate at the post governor, Richard CordrayRichard Adams CordrayMidterms: Winners and losers Renacci strikes Kasich after defeat for having "split the country" against Governor Trump's victory DeWine solidifies GOP's keeping on Ohio PLUS, was comfortably defeated by Republican Mike DeWine.

Brown was part of a larger ensemble where the Democratic senators from Rust Belt and the Upper Midwest had a much better time than many of their colleagues.

Meaning. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinMidterms: Winners and Losers Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with Enlarged Majority Baldwin Defeats Vukmir in Wisconsin Senate Run MORE (Wis.), Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseyMidterms: The Winners and the Losers The Senate GOP Exceeds Expectations with Enlarged Majority Casey Wins Third Senate Mandate Against Barletta Supported by Trump MORE (Pennsylvania.), Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharMidterms: Klobuchar winners and losers re-elect to race in Minnesota Senate Countdown to election: Trump presents mid-term mid-term referendum | Senate seats most likely to tip | A high turnout raises Dem's hope | Controversy over Trump announcement | Weather forecasts head for key states | DOJ will monitor voting in 19 states MORE (Minn.) And Debbie StabenowDeborah (Debbie) Ann StabenowMidterms: winners and losers Senate GOP surpasses expectations with greater majority Michigan voters approve MORE recreational marijuana (Mich.) Have all been re-elected comfortably. Trump has gone all out, with the exception of Minnesota, in 2016.

But Brown is more left-wing than his colleagues at Rust Belt, making his success all the more intriguing.

The ease of his victory will fuel speculation about an Ohio-led White House until 2020.

Conservative judges

Republican gains in the Senate greatly facilitate the process of confirmation of conservative judges.

It also seems obvious that the controversy around the confirmation of justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughMidterms: Winners and Losers Electoral Fallout: What to Watch for Alabama Now, West Virginia Voters Endorse Anti-Abortion Amendments MORE at the Supreme Court has stimulated voters to the right as much as the left.

losers

"The blue wave"

The idea that there is a widespread repudiation of Trump, ousting Republicans from their seats in supposedly safe districts of the GOP, has simply not materialized.

This should not minimize the symbolic and substantive importance of the House of Democrats taking control.

But if supporters of the left still thought that Trump's victory in 2016 was a stroke of luck, or that he would be easily defeated in 2020, voters issued a warning on Tuesday.

Andrew Gillum

Gillum, the Democratic nominee for the Democratic governorship in Florida, has been proclaimed as an emblem of the party's future: young, black, progressive and, apparently, magnetically elector.

Polls have shown him as the favorite on Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisMidterms: winners and losers Blue wave clashed with Trump's red wall Five conclusions from a controversial mid-term election MORE, a very pro-Trump former congressman, on the occasion of Election Day. But the Sunshine State has delivered another surprise.

It was an overwhelming loss for Gillum and for the activists who rallied to his cause.

To reinforce the democratic morose, Stacey Abrams, a colleague of the Gillum party in Georgia, was also late in his race for governor, accused of embezzlement by his opponent Brian Kemp, who oversees the elections to his current position as Secretary of State of Georgia.

Leader of the Senate Minority Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerThe numbers do not lie: working Americans are better off with GOP Trump calls Gillum "un-equipped" to be the governor of Florida McSally accuses Arizona's media of "protecting" the # 39, Dem's opponent, Sinema MORE (D-N.Y.)

Control will inevitably fall on Schumer given the disappointing night of Democrats in the Senate.

Its allies will argue that it is unfair, given the ruthless nature of the battleground this year for Democrats. Admittedly, the alternative strategy that Democrats could have adopted to achieve better results is unclear.

Nevertheless, Schumer would have hoped to limit losses on Tuesday to maximize his chances of eventually becoming the leader of the majority after the 2020 elections, while the card is more favorable for his party.

This task has become much more difficult.

Critics of the GOP

Most Republican lawmakers were closely linked to the president, but some members competing for re-election in competitive constituencies were dissenting.

representatives Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis Curbelo: Intermediaries: The Winners and the Losers Five Conclusions of a Mid-Term Election That Has Fragmented Many GOP Tax Law Writers Will Not Return to Congress MORE (R-Fla) and Mike CoffmanMichael (Mike) Howard CoffmanMidterms: Winners and Losers Dems Should Take Back Majority in House Coffman Loses GOP Headquarters in Colorado MORE (R-Colo.) Are two notable examples. Both have criticized the White House, particularly for its immigration policies.

Maybe they did not have a choice. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonMidterms: Winners and losers Sisolak becomes the first Dem to win the Nevada governor's race since 1994 The GOP Senate exceeds expectations with an enlarged majority NEXT The highly Hispanic district of Curbelo was scored 16 points in 2016 and that of Coffman 9 points.

But despite their attempts to keep their distance from the president, the two legislators still lost – heavily, in the case of Coffman.

Separately, critics of the "Never Trump" within the GOP have long predicted that the president would condemn his party.

Tuesday's mixed results make it look less like a time bomb than its GOP critics think.
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Maybe they did not have a choice. Hillary Clinton scored 16 points in 2016 for the highly Hispanic district of Curbelo and 9 points for Coffman.

But despite their attempts to keep their distance from the president, the two legislators still lost – heavily, in the case of Coffman.

Separately, critics of the "Never Trump" within the GOP have long predicted that the president would condemn his party.

Tuesday's mixed results make it look less like a time bomb than its GOP critics think.