Migrant Caravan Updates: What You Need to Know

A large Central American procession is heading north across Mexico, defying President Trump and facing little resistance from Mexican authorities. We will follow the advance of the caravan through Mexico and the United States is preparing for its arrival at the border.

When will the caravan reach the United States?

The caravan is still more than 1500 km from the US territory and the map below shows that there is still a lot of Mexico to go. If the group manages to advance 15 miles a day, it would take more than two months for the caravan to arrive at the Rio Grande. And it's a long way to go for families with children.

This schedule changes significantly if the members of the caravan manage to board buses, trucks or freight trains, in which case they can reach the US border in less than a week. But this is a major effort in the absence of a major fundraising effort to provide mass motorized transport.

Is not that what happened with the last caravan – the one that angered President Trump earlier this year?

Yes. The caravan, organized by a militant group for migration, Pueblo Sin Fronteras, reached about 1,500 people at one point. About 400 of them ended up entering the United States to apply for asylum.

The big difference? This caravan was organized. He had leaders, legal advisers and a support network in the United States and Mexico. Most importantly, there were chartered buses.

Rather than trying to cross into the Rio Grande Valley – the closest place, geographically, from Central America – this caravan has made it to Tijuana. That made sense, because there was a large contingent of supporters on the California side. The caravan's legal advisers have directed members to US ports of entry, where it is legal to enter the United States to seek asylum.

[Graphic: Navigating the invisible boundary and physical barriers that define the U.S.-Mexico border]

Will this caravan follow the same route? At this point, and no one leading or directing the movement, there is no way to find out. It is possible that the group will split up along the way and spread to different areas of the border, where some will approach entry points to seek asylum and others will try to sneak in and avoid capturing.

Trump seems determined to avoid replaying the chaotic scenes last week at the border bridge between Guatemala and Mexico, where crowds forced themselves to cross barriers and thousands of people arrived in Mexico without control or verification. If thousands of migrants are massing like the one facing McAllen, Texas, or another US border town, it's not hard to imagine a volatile confrontation.

How did this caravan get so big?

The United Nations estimated that more than 7,000 people have joined the caravan, although the size of the group seems to be fluid. Most of those traveling north come from Honduras, where the caravan originated. There was no evidence of the presence of "Middle Eastern citizens" in the ranks of the group, as claimed by Trump.

It is difficult to predict how many of its members will eventually reach the US border. It is likely that the size of the caravan remains elastic when some abandon or return, and others join us.

It is important to remember that more than 50,000 people were arrested last month along the US-Mexico border. Therefore, even if 5,000 members of the caravan went to the end, they would only represent a fraction of the current flows. As one Homeland Security official says, "We get a caravan every day."

[Record numbers of families are crossing the U.S. border, prompting threats of new crackdown]

Many migrants told reporters that their decision to leave had been made in a flash. They were waiting for the opportunity to introduce themselves but could not afford to try the trip otherwise. The cost of hiring a coyote smuggling guide to travel from Central America to the United States may exceed $ 10,000. But catch a backpack and hit the road with a mass movement? It's free.

And on a road plagued by gang kidnappings, extortion and other criminal predators, jumping into a caravan offers some degree of protection. There is a lot of security and the processions attract a large number of police officers.

Why does the Mexican government not stop the caravan?

The Trump administration is pushing Mexico to take a stand and block the advance of the group. This has not happened for many reasons – and it is unlikely to happen any time soon.

A big one: President Enrique Peña Nieto's six-year term ends on 1 December. He is one of the most unpopular presidents in Mexico's recent history. He has little incentive to use the growing strength of impoverished Central Americans to appease Trump. It would be humiliating for him.

Mexico is already taking steps it has never taken in the past, seeking help from the United Nations to select and process asylum seekers, and the government says that more than 1,000 members of the caravan did. Mexican Federal Police officers also blocked the caravan at the border with Guatemala last week, although many of these migrants simply crossed the river to continue their journey.

It is also important to note that in Mexico, joining a caravan like this in the hope of reaching the United States is not bad. Poor migrants from Central America are treated more like pilgrims than criminals. When they arrive in Mexican cities, people offer them food, clothes and other gifts to support them and encourage them to go ahead.

In a very Catholic country and at a time when Pope Francis urged sympathizers and support from migrants around the world, many Mexicans feel that they have a moral duty to help the caravan. An attempt by their government to repress the caravan by force would run up against this feeling and a political disaster.

What happens next?

In a few days, the caravan will arrive in Arriaga, Chiapas, a railroad hub where, for years, poor migrants have been on freight trains to Mexico City and other more distant destinations. In recent years, Mexican authorities have cracked down on train operations, forcing migrants to return to highways. But if a significant portion of the caravan manages to board Mexican freight trains, this would significantly reduce the time needed to reach the US border.

In the absence of this, members of the caravan may continue along the road, hitchhiking or dragging themselves into the grueling heat.