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NEW YORK– Given the goal of the Trump administration of a complete and verifiable denuclearization of North Korea during the first term of President TrumpSecretary of State Mike Pompeo is keen to maintain the commitment of the United States and North Korea. As he prepares for the upcoming talks with North Koreans, he leaves a prominent tool on the table: the prospect of an official declaration to end the Korean War.
"It's hard to know – I do not want to prejudge where we'll meet," Pompeo said this week to the question of whether President Trump and Kim Jong Un could sign a statement for end the war at their next summit. "But make no mistake, real progress has been made."
By leaving the possibility open, Pompeo asserts that the United States is open to some form of negotiation with North Koreans to achieve denuclearization – and that it presents itself with more than mere demands. The Trump administration, which claims that its efforts have averted the war, insists it will continue talks with North Korea after a late break in the dialogue.
Trump said his next meeting with Kim would be "in the not-too-distant future", in a "place to be determined" – but not in Singapore.
Until the denuclearization is "definitive and fully verified", Mr. Pompeo said that the crippling US sanctions against North Korea would remain in force, but that the United States would use the prospect of a possible end-of-war declaration to keep North Koreans at the table.
"The declaration of the end of the war is inevitable," said David Maxwell, senior official of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who had previously served in the US military in Japan and South Korea. He argues that North Korea and South Korea want it and can initiate it on their own. "We must find a way to make this event a positive event, so that the United States can take the opportunity to strengthen its alliance with South Korea and continue to push North Korea to continue denuclearizing."
According to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong Un said at his last meeting that North Korea would dismantle a major nuclear facility if the US took "unspecified" matching measures. The official end of the war is a measure that the North Korean regime absolutely wants.
Critics warn that such big bartering with Kim could only lead to even greater demands from North Korean negotiators. Among other more distant aspirations of the regime beyond a declaration ending the war, let us quote a formal peace treaty with the United States, which could then see US forces withdrawn from the Korean peninsula.
Kim's regime has long aimed for a complete withdrawal of the US armed forces, and his ally, China, would likely support all related initiatives, as thousands of fewer US forces in a neighboring country would be seen as a boost. to the Beijing regional power.
"We have already abandoned a lot, and North Korea has done very little.We have already damaged the readiness of the army by suspending the military exercise that must actually take place every summer so to maintain basic readiness, "said Maxwell. "We fall into the trap that we have these last three decades, that is, we have to give up something and North Korea does not do anything."
Duyeon Kim, a nuclear and Korean expert at the Center for a New American Security, said North Koreans would likely present a declaration ending the war as "the ultimate defeat of the United States", at least to their national audience. . The question is what the United States could possibly get in exchange for signing such an important document.
"I would like to see a proportionate market, and that means the North should give something substantial," she says. "If the inventory of their program is the only transaction that they are willing to do, then I would suggest to the administration to insist on a list of all facilities and materials related to the cycle. fuel throughout North Korea. "
For his part, Kim Jong Un took steps to move the process forward, telling Moon at its summit that he would allow international inspectors to check his country's "permanent dismantling" in a key missile facility. The details of this have yet to be refined, but the opening has been well received by the Trump administration.
"In order for the DPRK (North Korea) to become denuclearized in a year, the United States and the members of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) will need access to the DPRK, "said an administration official at CBS News earlier this month.
While National Security Adviser John Bolton said that North Korea could be denuclearized in one year, Pompeo is more conservative, saying the efforts will be completed by 2021. The administration will not fix a calendar closes. It is also unclear what actions, inactions or demands of Pyongyang could entice the Trump administration to withdraw from the diplomatic process.
This week at the United Nations General Assembly, Trump highlighted his administration's current position on the North, telling reporters: "We are in no hurry.
In his speech to world leaders gathered, Trump said his administration has "made more progress than anyone ever did, frankly, with respect to North Korea."
The president's frustration over the talks earlier this month was reversed when he canceled a planned Pompeo visit to North Korea, citing a lack of progress.
While the White House embarked, a few weeks later, on another visit to Pompeo, and that it seems to be planning another Trump-Kim summit, it did not mention any particular changes in terms of denuclearization movements. The administration reacted positively to the Moon meeting in Pyongyang, and there was letters from Kim Jong Un to Mr. Trump that the president described as "beautiful".
"I think we will conclude an agreement," Trump said on Wednesday. He then softens his statement with an element of doubt; "Are we going to make a deal, I do not know, I think so."
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