Millions of people left behind by diabetes lead to increased insulin demand

LONDON (Reuters) – A global diabetes epidemic is fueling a record demand for insulin, but tens of millions of people will not get the injections they need without dramatic improvements in access and affordability , concluded Wednesday a new study.

Diabetes – which can lead to blindness, kidney failure, heart problems, neuropathic pain and amputations – now affects 9% of adults worldwide, up from 5% in 1980.

The vast majority suffer from type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity and lack of exercise, and cases are spreading particularly rapidly in developing countries as people adopt more lifestyles. Western and urban.

The researchers said that the amount of insulin needed to effectively treat type 2 diabetes would increase by more than 20% over the next 12 years, but that it would be out of reach by half of the 79 million Type 2 diabetics who need it by 2030.

The lack is particularly acute in Africa, where the team headed by Dr. Sanjay Basu of Stanford University estimated that the offer should be multiplied by seven to treat patients at risk who were at the stage of the obligation to treat. insulin to control their blood sugar.

"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are very inadequate compared to projected needs, particularly in Africa and Asia," Basu said.

"Despite the US government's commitment to treating noncommunicable diseases and ensuring universal access to diabetes medications, insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult to access for patients."

The global insulin supply is dominated by three companies – Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Eli Lilly – that offer various programs to try to improve access to their products.

However, insulin remains expensive and prices can be particularly out of reach of the poorest countries, where tortuous supply chains and high profit margins often make the solution unaffordable for many patients.

Overall, Basu and his colleagues calculated that global insulin use would increase to 634 million vials by 1,000 units by 2030, up from 526 million in 2018.

Their study, published in the journal Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology and funded by Helmsley Charitable Trust, was based on diabetes prevalence projections from the International Diabetes Federation.

Dr. Hertzel Gerstein of McMaster University of Canada wrote in an accompanying commentary that it was important to estimate and secure insulin supplies, but added that the forecasts needed to be treated with caution because they were based on mathematical models.