[ad_1]
Early voting for the mid-term elections began in all states of the country. Enthusiasm – and voter turnout – appear to be high, with hundreds of thousands of ballot papers arriving in Florida and voters lining up in Texas.
According to survey data, voter turnout has increased among Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Tuesday afternoon, more than seven million people had voted early, according to data compiled by Michael McDonald, professor of political science at the University of Florida and studying the elections.
"If these trends persist, we could see a participation rate at least equal to the participation rate in 1966, which was 48%. If we beat that rate, we have to go back up to 1914, when it was 51%. , "he said." We could consider a participation rate that hardly anyone has ever known. "
Public data on advance voting suggest that Republican voters are more likely than Democrats to have voted so far, but it is too early to draw definitive conclusions. Here is a guide explaining how early voting works and why the information we see now may not look like the final result after polling day.
How does advance voting work?
Early voting operates differently in each state, but it usually takes two forms: in person and by mail.
In general, postal votes tend to distort Republicans' reputation, in part because mail voting is popular with older voters. Some states facilitate mail voting for older people, but more difficult for younger people: in Michigan, for example, anyone over the age of 60 can get a postal ballot. Advance votes in person tend to favor the Democrats.
How are the anticipated voting figures collected?
Advance voting figures are collected from local electoral authorities and states, who keep track of who voted. These data can be analyzed using computer models or publicly available information – such as the registration of age, race or a party – so to make an informed guess about how someone voted
But any analysis of early voting figures lacks crucial evidence because the available data do not include how a person actually voted. And it is important to keep in mind that not all registered Democrats always vote for Democratic candidates.
Which party is in the lead?
This is a sensitive issue, partly because the people you voted for are not public information, but because the snapshot of the results of the advance poll on a given day is not necessarily the end result. Whoever is in the lead now may not be the party that actually wins.
At the present time, seemingly Republican voters have voted more than voters in a democracy, but this is largely due to the fact that postal ballots are sent to them several weeks before polling day (for give them time to vote and mail it.) When the advance poll is first opened, postal ballots are usually the first votes to count.
"The electoral cycle generally varies from one country to another – and this is not true in all states, but nationwide – Republicans tend to increase the score early with the vote of absentees , the Democrats are coming back with a rather large increase in the number of anticipated votes in person, and then on polling day, the vote tends to be closer to parity with a slight advance from the Republicans, "said Tom Bonier, Executive Director. from TargetSmart, a data analysis company that has collected early voting figures. "Republicans tend to have to catch up on election day."
Age is also a factor, McDonald said.
"With Election Day approaching, you will find that young people tend to vote later than older people," he said. "So young people will enter the electorate as we enter next week."
How does this compare with 2014 and 2016?
Early voting has become more popular in recent years, with more than 22 million people voting in advance at the 2016 election. And the enthusiasm at the halfway point in 2018 is high. Election turnout on Monday, the first day of advance polls in Texas, rose 325 percent in Dallas County and 213 percent in Harris County, Houston's home, from the first day of 2014, according to figures provided. by the Texas Democrats.
Voter turnout appears to have increased significantly since 2014. But McDonald cautioned against year-to-year comparisons because many variables may change in every state of the world. election to the other.
"Even when we can look at past data, laws may have changed or campaign strategies may have changed, so that may not reflect a real difference," he said. "But I think that given these numbers – and I've been doing it since 2008 – the participation rate is higher."
Source link
