Ministry of Justice and Justice Investigations May Hide Preliminary September Results of Tesla Results

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Tesla is expected to reveal preliminary production and delivery results for the September quarter this week. While there is still uncertainty about the company's performance, the SEC's recent lawsuit and the Justice Ministry's recent investigation into Elon Musk's tweets may eclipse the figures announced. It is a little risky that the press release contains comments on the lawsuit before the SEC, but it would be a good idea to say something about it. If Tesla does not, he will have missed an opportunity to shape the opinions of investors.

The Tesla results update letter for the June quarter contained Model 3 production forecasts of 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles and deliveries were expected to exceed this outlook. He also said, "During the month of July, we repeated the weekly production of about 5,000 model 3 cars several times, while producing 2,000 S and X models a week."

Like 13 weeks ago in the September quarter in some respects, it would not be unreasonable to expect that Tesla manufactured 65,000 models, 3 but there are at least two compensating factors. The first is that the company seems to have gone through extraordinary steps to reach the level of 5,000, like building an outdoor manufacturing line. In the short term, this has probably not been sustainable. The second factor is that Tesla probably had timeouts during the quarter, so that every week would not have generated 5,000 models 3 per week.

Google's "Teslike Model 3 Order Tracking" document tracks and projects model 3 production and shipments. It tracks VIN numbers and comments from Tesla buyers and owners.

Production seems to be on the right track

It seems that Tesla should reach its goal of producing 50,000 to 55,000 models 3 as the Order Follower sets it at 52,582. If August has shown a slight slowdown, this is not too surprising for three reasons. First, I think there was still pressure in July. Thus, when the company announced its results from June to early August, it could still say that it still produced 5,000 models 3 per week. Secondly, the month of August tends to be a month in which automakers reorganize their production lines for new models. This is not really the case for Tesla, but there has been a significant shift from RWD to AWD. The third is due to holiday schedules. Although Musc seems to work non-stop, the rest of the staff probably needed some free time to recharge their batteries.

The graph below estimates that Tesla has produced 93,611 models 3 since its introduction. Bloomberg also predicts how many models 3 have been built and its estimate is 94,376. Although the two are not quite correct, it is interesting to see that they have very similar forecasts.

Deliveries should be facilitated by 11,166 models 3 in transit

On September 16, Musk tweeted that the company had "gone from hell to logistics" in response to a Model 3 buyer waiting for his car. Although many reports have been made about the problems faced by Tesla, they should be much easier to solve than production problems.

The order tracking document estimates that Tesla has made considerable progress on delivery issues. and sold just over 55,000 Model 3s during the quarter (55,298 to be exact). Do not forget that there were 11,166 patterns 3 in transit at the end of the June quarter, an increase of more than 9,000 compared to the end of March. I would not be surprised to see this number decrease by a few thousand, which will help with the delivery number.

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Tesla is expected to reveal preliminary production and delivery results for the September quarter this week. While there is still uncertainty about the company's performance, the SEC's recent lawsuit and the Justice Ministry's recent investigation into Elon Musk's tweets may eclipse the figures announced. It is a little risky that the press release contains comments on the lawsuit before the SEC, but it would be a good idea to say something about it. If Tesla does not, he will have missed an opportunity to shape the opinions of investors.

The Tesla results update letter for the June quarter contained Model 3 production forecasts of 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles and deliveries were expected to exceed this outlook. He also said, "During the month of July, we repeated the weekly production of about 5,000 model 3 cars several times, while producing 2,000 S and X models a week."

Like 13 weeks ago in the September quarter in some respects, it would not be unreasonable to expect that Tesla manufactured 65,000 models, 3 but there are at least two compensating factors. The first is that the company seems to have gone through extraordinary steps to reach the level of 5,000, like building an outdoor manufacturing line. In the short term, this has probably not been sustainable. The second factor is that Tesla probably had timeouts during the quarter, so that every week would not have generated 5,000 models 3 per week.

Google's "Teslike Model 3 Order Tracking" document tracks and projects model 3 production and shipments. It tracks VIN numbers and comments from Tesla buyers and owners.

Production seems to be on the right track

It seems that Tesla should reach its goal of producing 50,000 to 55,000 models 3 as the Order Follower sets it at 52,582. If August has shown a slight slowdown, this is not too surprising for three reasons. First, I think there was still pressure in July. Thus, when the company announced its results from June to early August, it could still say that it still produced 5,000 models 3 per week. Secondly, the month of August tends to be a month in which automakers reorganize their production lines for new models. This is not really the case for Tesla, but there has been a significant shift from RWD to AWD. The third is due to holiday schedules. Although Musc seems to work non-stop, the rest of the staff probably needed some free time to recharge their batteries.

The graph below estimates that Tesla has produced 93,611 models 3 since its introduction. Bloomberg also predicts how many models 3 have been built and its estimate is 94,376. Although the two are not quite correct, it is interesting to see that they have very similar forecasts.

Deliveries should be facilitated by 11,166 models 3 in transit

On September 16, Musk tweeted that the company had "gone from hell to logistics" in response to a Model 3 buyer waiting for his car. Although many reports have been made about the problems faced by Tesla, they should be much easier to solve than production problems.

The order tracking document estimates that Tesla has made considerable progress on delivery issues. and sold just over 55,000 Model 3s during the quarter (55,298 to be exact). Do not forget that there were 11,166 patterns 3 in transit at the end of the June quarter, an increase of more than 9,000 compared to the end of March. I would not be surprised to see this number decrease by a few thousand, which will help with the delivery number.