MLB – Colorado Rockies magic could bring NL West title

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The Colorado Rockies have never won a division title. If they keep winning games the way they did it Wednesday night, it might finally happen. They beat the Diamondbacks 5-4 on DJ LeMahieu's one-out, two-run, walk-off home run:

It was LeMahieu's first career walk-off hit, let alone walk-off home run. It came after Charlie Blackman had curiously bunted Gerardo Parra over to second (Paul Goldschmidt could not handle his hard one-hopper, a Goldschmidt play usually gobbles up). Given that Blackmon has 26 home runs, you do not want to see him give up at Coors Field.

But it has been that kind of season for the Rockies. Somehow, things are working out. They've been outscored by two runs, but they're 80-65 and are 1½ games up on the Dodgers. My editor Dan is a huge Rockies fan and he describes their success as other, "It's a different type of lineup."

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That's what we saw with LeMahieu on Wednesday. It's his 15th home run, a career high, and while he's one of the game's most extreme opposite-field hitters, he usually pulls his home runs – Wednesday's winner was just his third opposite-field home run of the season.

Meanwhile, the bullpen was spectacular in relief of Jon Gray, who was inefficient 94 pitches. Chris Rusin, Scott Oberg and Wade Davis threw five innings and retired all 15 batters they faced.

Not so spectacular is the Arizona bullpen. LeMahieu's home run came off Yoshihisa Hirano, installed Tuesday as the new closer. Back to the drawing board for Torey Lovullo. The Diamondbacks have played 11 games in September and this has happened:

– Blew has 2-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth

– Blew has 2-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth

– Lost in the 10th

– Lost again in the 10th

– Blew has 4-3 lead in the ninth by giving up six runs

– And now this game

The Diamondbacks are now 3½ games behind the Rockies, and it's going to be almost impossible to recover from both the Dodgers and the Rockies to win the division. And they're even more back in the wild-card race.

Dodgers avoid sweep: The Reds entered Wednesday afternoon's game in Cincinnati with a 6-0 record against the Dodgers – they improbably swept LA at Dodger Stadium back in May – goal the Dodgers finally pulled one out, winning 8-1 as seven pitchers combined for a five -hitter and 11 strikeouts.

The Dodgers can point to their mediocre record against the worst teams in the NL

Reds: 1-6
Marlins: 2-4
Mets: 4-2
Padres: 12-4
Giants: 7-9

That's 26-25 overall. The weird part is the Dodgers have two teams in their head-to-head matchups (all but the Reds) to the tune of 236-181. That run differential suggests they should be 32-19 in these games, so they've underperformed the expected win total by six wins. That aligns with what has happened all season. The Dodgers are more likely to have a record of 88-58, which would be the best in the National League. Instead, they're 79-67.

Yes, some of that is the bullpen's lack of success in close games. The Dodgers are 21-21 in one-run games. It's also a misnomer that good teams dominate one-run games. Sometimes they do. But what good teams actually do is dominate in blowouts. In games decided by five or more runs, the Dodgers are 25-8. They're 13-19 in games decided by two runs. So some of the blame goes to the offense. Check this out:

High-leverage situations: .642 OPS (29th in majors)
Low-leverage situations: .778 OPS (third in majors)

Dodgers hitters stink when games are close and pad their stats in blowouts. Blame the offense just as much as the bullpen.

If the Dodgers fail to make the playoffs, they're going to look back at a stretch from late April to early May. After starting the season 11-10, they went 5-16 to fall to 16-26. That included the Reds, two of three to the Padres and three of four to the Giants. So the worst stretch of the season is against the part of the schedule.

AL Cy Young race is a Snell game: Blake Snell was at it again, giving Jose Ramirez home run in the seventh – as the Rays beat the Indians 3-1. Snell fanned nine and improved to 19-5 with a 2.03 ERA.

So, does this make a surprise for the AL Cy Young Award? With apologies to Gerrit Cole and a couple of relievers, the five contenders:

Pitcher ERA IP SO W-L Bwar fWAR
Chris Sale 1.96 147 221 12-4 6.6 6.1
Blake Snell 2.03 164 195 19-5 5.9 3.7
Trevor Bauer 2.22 166 214 12-6 5.6 5.9
Justin Verlander 2.72 195 258 15-9 5.0 5.7
Corey Kluber 2.91 195 194 18-7 5.3 4.8

A few notes: (1) Corey Kluber is going to skip his next start. (2) Chris Sale is also one of the first and only one of the two. (3) Trevor Bauer is still out because of a stress fracture in his leg. (4) Yeah, Snell's FanGraphs WAR is a little low; it's kind of silly to think he's only getting better than a replacement-level starter.

Anyway, I think we can eliminate the two Cleveland pitchers since they've had a chance to have an advantage.

The issue is not going to end up qualifying for the ERA title if it does not pitch 15 innings the rest of the season. Even if he does, that will mean he will have thrown 20 innings the final two months. You can argue that it's all that matters. Some voters, however, will understandably have trouble voting for a guy who's barely pitched the final two months.

But Snell has only 17 more than Sale. That might give Verlander a chance, especially if he finishes strong. He has more than Sale, but you could argue about the value of those innings. He has given up 28 more runs than Sale in those 48 innings (5.25 runs per nine), so he is here again. Still, he has gone out there every turn, helped save the world for the bullpen and pitched in a pennant race down the stretch.

Then there's Snell's win-loss record. We all know W-L is not a key indicator anymore, but in a close race, it could be the difference-maker. If he ends up with 20 wins and ends up with 13, that could push Snell to Cy Young honors.

The A's are good, the Orioles are not: The A's beat the Orioles 10-0. The Orioles got one hit. The A's scored all 10 runs in the third inning. Yes, the Orioles keep coming up with new ways to lose.

And a bonus highlight of Matt Chapman:

One quick highlight of Willians Astudillo that you will watch a thousand times: Make it two thousand:

OK, so who is Willians Astudillo? He's a rookie with the Twins, previously in the Phillies and Diamondbacks organizations. In his 17 big league games, he has played catcher, second base, third base, left field and – get this – one inning in center field (no putouts). He even pitched an inning.

The most remarkable thing to know about him, however, is that he rarely strikes out. In 48 flat appearances in the majors, he has only two strikeouts. At Triple-A, he fanned just 14 times in 307 APs. In winter ball, he fanned four times in 204 at-bats. He's a modern-day Joe Sewell. There is no one like him in the majors. I mean, there really is not anybody like him in the majors. Did you watch that highlight?

What to make of him? He also rarely walks and does not really have a position (he mostly played catcher and third at Triple-A). He can hit a little (.276 / .314 / .469 at Rochester), but not a lot. Maybe there's a utility guy / third catcher. I hope so. Because we need Willians Astudillo in the majors, that's for sure.

Red Sox win 100th: David Price cruised in a 1-0 win over the Blue Jays, giving up three hits and no walks with seven K's in seven innings. That's two really good times since that short DL stint, and he has 1.56 ERA in the second half. On Tuesday, Price said he does not plan on opting out of his contract (which has four years left). He also says that he has to prove himself in October, he has never won a postseason start: "I could go 35-0 with a zero [ERA] and it would not matter. I need to win in October. "

A few notes from ESPN Stats & Information:

– The Red Sox have 100 wins for the first time since 1946. Nineteen Franchises have won 100 since the Red Sox last did it. (This is remarkable for the past 50 years.)

– Alex Cora is the fifth manager, joining Mickey Cochrane, Ralph Houk, Sparky Anderson, Dusty Baker.

– The Red Sox could become the seventh team to win 110-plus games. Three of those won the World Series: 1998 Yankees, 1927 Yankees, 1909 World Series. Two lost in the World Series: 1906 Cubs and 1954 Indians. One did not reach the World Series: 2001 Mariners.

Not that I'm still bitter about that or anything.

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