Mortality from smoking and lung cancer in the United States from 2015 to 2065 | Annals of Internal Medicine

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (J.J., P.C., J.T., R.M.)

Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut (T.R.H.)

Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC (D.T.L.)

National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland (E.J.F.)

Cornerstone Systems North West, Lynden, Washington (L.C., J.C.)

Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts (C.Y.K.)

Grant: By the National Cancer Institute, the National Institutes of Health (U01CA152956 and U01CA199284).

Disclosures: Dr. Tam reports a grant from the National Institute for Combating Drug Abuse and personal fees from the US Food and Drug Administration outside the submitted work. The unnamed authors here have revealed no conflict of interest. Disclosures can also be found at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M18-1250.

Disclosures of the editors: Christine Laine, MD, MPH, Editor-in-Chief, says his wife holds stock / asset options with targeted diagnoses and therapies. Darren B. Taichman, MD, PhD, editor, says that he has no financial relationship and no interest in disclosing. Cynthia D. Mulrow, MD, MSc, Senior Editor, says she has no relationship or interest in disclosing. Deborah Cotton, MD, MPH, Associate Editor, says she has no financial ties and no interest in disclosing. Jaya K. Rao, MD, MHS, Associate Editor, says she owns stock / stock options at Eli Lilly and Pfizer. Sankey V. Williams, MD, deputy editor, says that he has no financial relationship or any interest in disclosing. Catharine B. Stack, PhD, MS, Associate Editor of Statistics, says she owns shares in Proctor & Gamble, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson.

Repeatable Research Statement:Study protocol: Details of the protocol and template are available in the Supplement. Statistical code: An earlier version of the Smoking History Generator is available upon request (email, [email protected]). Dataset: Prevalence rates for smoking, initiation, cessation, and intensity from 1964 to 2065 are available at https://resources.cisnet.cancer.gov/projects/#shg/sbc2.

Corresponding author: Rafael Meza, PhD, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029; email, [email protected].

Address of the current author: Drs. Jeon and Meza and Ms. Cao: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029.

Dr. Holford: Department of Biostatistics, Yale University, PO Box 208034, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520-8034.

Dr. Levy: Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, 3300 Whitehaven Street, NW, Suite 4100, Washington, DC 20007.

Dr. Feuer: Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892.

Dr. Tam: Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029.

Ms. L. Clarke and Mr. J. Clarke: Cornerstone Systems Northwest, 8665 Berthusen Road, Lynden, WA 98264.

Dr. Kong: Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac Street, Suite 1010, Boston, MA 02114.

Author contributions: Design and Design: J. Jeon, T. R. Holford, D. T. Levy, E. J. Feuer, L. Clarke, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Data Analysis and Interpretation: J. Jeon, T. R. Holford, D. T. Levy, E. J. Feuer, P. Cao, L. Clarke, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Article Writing: J. Jeon, T.R. Holford, D.T. Levy, J. Tam, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Critical Review of the Article for Significant Intellectual Content: J. Jeon, T. R. Holford, D. T. Levy, E. J. Feuer, J. Tam, L. Clarke, J. Clarke, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Final approval of the article: J. Jeon, T. R. Holford, D. T. Levy, E. J. Feuer, P. Cao, J. Tam, Clarke L., J. Clarke, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Statistical expertise: J. Jeon, T. R. Holford, D.T. Levy, E. J. Feuer, P. Cao, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Obtaining Funding: T.R. Holford, D.T. Levy, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.

Administrative, technical or logistical support: P. Cao, L. Clarke, J. Clarke, C.Y. Kong.

Collection and assembly of data: J. Jeon, D. T. Levy, P. Cao, C.Y. Kong, R. Meza.