Most countries do not meet the UN's goals to reduce premature deaths from chronic diseases

These are the results of the most detailed global analysis of deaths from so-called noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) – chronic diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes.

The study conducted by Imperial College London, the World Health Organization and NCD Alliance, reveals that a 30-year-old woman in the UK has a 9% chance of dying of four non-communicable diseases: cancer, cardiovascular disease and stroke), chronic respiratory disease and diabetes – before age 70, compared to 12% for a woman living in the United States and 6% for a woman residing in Japan . A 30-year-old man living in the United Kingdom has a 13% chance of dying from a noncommunicable disease by the age of 70, compared to 11% for a man living in Switzerland and 18% for a man living in the United States. .

The analysis, published today in The lancet, also revealed that the majority of countries in the world, including the United Kingdom, the United States and China, may not achieve the United Nations goal of reducing the number of premature deaths from NCDs.

Professor Majid Ezzati, of the School of Public Health of Imperial, said: "Noncommunicable diseases are the leading cause of premature death in most countries.Poverty, the uncontrolled commercialization of Alcohol and tobacco systems make chronic diseases more dangerous to human health than traditional enemies such as bacteria and viruses. "

Too many people are dying too early

Noncommunicable diseases kill nearly 41 million people a year, or seven out of ten deaths worldwide, 17 million of these deaths are considered premature (that is, before the age of 70 years).

The new research is published before a key UN meeting on NCDs next week. In 2015, the United Nations set a goal of reducing by 2030 the number of premature deaths (between the ages of 30 and 70) attributable to four key noncommunicable diseases: cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes. .

The group behind this research, commonly known as NCD Countdown 2030, warns that its findings suggest that the UN goal will be missed in all nations except 35 for women and 30 countries for men.

The study also reveals that men and women in most countries around the world are at a higher risk of prematurely dying from NCDs than infectious diseases such as malaria or HIV.

United States, United Kingdom and China down

Researchers analyzed data on deaths from noncommunicable diseases in more than 180 countries. Their findings revealed that the risk of premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases was lowest in high-income countries, particularly in South Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Australia.

But other high-income countries lag behind leaders, notably the United Kingdom (17th for men, 27th for women), the United States (53rd for men, 44th for women) and China (80th for men, 76th for women).

Overall, women in South Korea, Japan, Spain and Switzerland were the least likely to die prematurely of the four major noncommunicable diseases. Countries with the lowest risk for men were Iceland, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

In contrast, men from Central Asia (Mongolia, Kazakhstan) and Eastern Europe (Russia, Belarus) were among the most likely to die from the four major noncommunicable diseases by the age of 70 . For women in sub-Saharan Africa (Sierra Leone), Ivory Coast), Guyana, Afghanistan, Yemen and Papua New Guinea were among the most at risk for premature death in the four major noncommunicable diseases.

The study reveals that only 35 countries are on track to reach the United Nations goal for women and only 30 countries for men.

Denmark, New Zealand, Norway and South Korea, as well as Brazil, Iran and some high-risk countries in Eastern Europe are among the countries that are UN. In comparison, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, India and China will fail to reach the target for both sexes.

The authors say that if deaths due to noncommunicable diseases decreased slightly more rapidly in 50 other countries (for women) and 35 countries (for men), they would also reach the goal.

According to the analysis, the situation is deteriorating or stagnating in 15 countries for women, including the United States and 24 for men.

Katie Dain of the NCD Alliance said: "Progress in noncommunicable diseases is seriously inadequate, and after the UN high-level meeting, the 2030 NCD countdown will help ensure that to renew, strengthen and increase the commitments to reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases that we have before us translates it. "

Solutions to help countries reduce deaths

Professor Ezzati explained: "While much of the world does not meet the UN's goal of easing the burden of chronic disease, dozens of countries could achieve this goal with a moderate acceleration already favorable trends in the right set of policies. "

Professor Ezzati added, "Treatment of high blood pressure and control of tobacco and alcohol use can prevent millions of deaths from cancer, heart disease, stroke and other noncommunicable diseases. as soon as possible. "

The team points out that the results are limited by the data available, citing major gaps in the completeness and accuracy of the data in some countries. They explain that improving the registration of deaths in countries could improve accuracy.

James Bennett, lead author of the School of Public Health study, said: "It is important for international aid agencies and governments to report on their commitments to global health goals. health. We identify the best performers in reducing deaths from chronic diseases, as well as those that need additional help. "

Regional summaries (2016 data)

World

For women, the highest rates of premature mortality resulting from four key noncommunicable diseases – cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and diabetes – have been observed in some African countries such as Sierra Leone and Cote d'Ivoire . In these countries, women aged 30 had a one in three chance of dying from these diseases before their 70th birthday.

The lowest risks of premature death among women have been observed in South Korea and Japan, with a probability of 5 to 6%.

For men, the highest rates of premature death of the four major noncommunicable diseases have been observed in Central Asia, Eastern Europe and some Pacific islands, for example, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Fiji. In these countries, men aged 30 had more than one in three chance of dying from these four diseases before their 70th birthday. The lowest levels were recorded in Iceland, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway, where men had 10 to 11% chances.

Great Britain

Women aged 30 in the United Kingdom had a 9% chance of dying of four noncommunicable diseases by their 70th birthday, placing them 27th in the world and 19th among 40 European countries.

In the United Kingdom, 30-year-old men had a 13% chance of dying of four noncommunicable diseases by their 70th birthday, placing them in 17th place among the lowest in the world and 9th in Europe.

The odds of dying from the four major noncommunicable diseases fell in the UK to 74th fastest in the world for women and 27th fastest in Europe (compared to the starting level in 2015).

For men, the rate of decline in the UK was 45th in the world and 25th in Europe.

Europe 

For European women, the highest premature mortality rates in four key noncommunicable diseases were observed in Moldova and Ukraine (17% and 16%). The lowest levels were recorded in Spain and Switzerland, with a risk of 6% and 7%.

For European men, the highest premature mortality rates among the four noncommunicable diseases were observed in Russia and Belarus (37% and 35%). The lowest levels were recorded in Iceland and Switzerland, with a risk of 10% and 11%.

United States

Women aged 30 in the United States had a 12% chance of dying of four non-communicable diseases by their 70th birthday, ranking them 44th in the world, but the highest among all high-income countries. Turkey and Panama. There has been a slight increase in the risk of death from these diseases among American women since 2010.

In the United States, 30-year-old men were 18% more likely to die of four noncommunicable diseases before their 70th birthday, placing them in 53rd place among high-income countries and worse than in Liberia. Mexico and Angola. The risk of death from illness among American men has hardly changed.

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More information:
"Countdown to noncommunicable diseases 2030: global trends in mortality from noncommunicable diseases and progress towards the achievement of sustainable development goals 3.4 & # 39; & # 39; by NCD Countdown 2030 Contributors are published in The lancet. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan… (18) 31992-5 / fulltext

ncdcountdown.org/TEMP-NCD2030/