Most unpredictable trends, times of the week 6

Wait, maybe we have not gone beyond the jokes "as we expected". There are many things we saw during week 6 and I certainly would not have been able to anticipate or believe before the season. In some cases we have witnessed the last part of a surprising trend that lasts all season. We also saw ugly cameos or surprisingly excellent games of players and teams that were not really on the radar before the campaign. Let's review these stories, and although I may not have planned for August, I'll try to find out if they will continue to appear in the coming weeks.

Here's what I did not expect to see during the 6th week of the 2018 season:

Switch to an unpredictable scenario:
KC-NE | LAR | MIN | MIA
BUF-HOU | JAX-DAL | LAKE

The leaders would lose a heart broken by the patriots … and would not be confused

If a team does not fear a trip to Foxborough, it's Andy Reid's bosses. Kansas City were 2-1 against the Patriots since Reid took over as coach, although their only loss came in the playoffs. In this game, the Patriots limited Alex Smith to less than 5 yards per pass in a loss of 27 to 20 leaders. A year later, the Steelers limited Smith to 5.1 yards per attempt by winning an 18-16 win at Arrowhead. In the following spring, the chefs traded against Patrick Mahomes. It seems like they wanted to add a more dynamic weapon to give them a hand in games like this one.

The Chiefs fans obviously do not want to lose, and given that Kansas City is back 15 points at halftime to take a 33-30 lead in the fourth quarter with 8:38 to play Sunday, there is undoubtedly a malaise in coeur They suffer their first defeat of the season against a team that will surely be ranked first in the World Cup standings next January. Kansas City is still at the top of the AFC at 5-1, but it would have been nice to sneak out of Foxborough with a win back and an undefeated record intact.

At the same time, it was a different game than the Chiefs had lost in the playoffs against the Patriots, the Steelers and even the Titans a year ago. The patriots were not able to put them away. New England did not win because Kansas City did not stop picking up midfield and struggled to take all scoring opportunities. The Patriots won because they had the ball last. It would be impossible to say that the chefs will have a different chance in January, but this is not a team that should be afraid of anyone this winter. Instead, all AFC members will be terrified of facing Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The Patriotes survived through the skin of the teeth. In the first game, Mahomes missed a very open Kareem Hunt on the same road concept the Chiefs had used for a touchdown pass to Hunt in the first week of the season. In the third run that followed, a pressurized Mahomes threw his foot back and knocked down Tyreek Hill for a more difficult attempt on a pass that, in his opinion, should have made six. The leaders kicked.

The Patriots seemed to have sent six, but they once again dropped two defensemen on the blitz to eliminate the shallow passages. They managed to put pressure on one or the other side, and that was enough to dispel Mahomes. The former Texas Tech star knew that he had a dream match against Hill, lined up against 31-year-old defensive back Jason McCourty, unassisted in the middle of the field, and he threw the ball off his foot back with all the power Mahomes. could gather. This was not enough. The pass was badly started and should have been removed. Had Mahomes been able to set foot at the end of his U-turn – heck, there had been only one free runner from one side of the pitch and that Mahomes could have managed – Hill would have brought a landing.

Instead, the leaders paged. At the next game, Tom Brady hit Rob Gronkowski for 42 yards. The Patriots scored a seven point lead and the Chiefs then hit Hill for a long touchdown to tie at 40-40. The Patriots had the ball with just the time to score and have served time. Sony Michel converted a third and a before Gronkowski won through a 39-yard reception in the fourth quarter, putting the Patriots at the beck and call of Stephen Gostkowski.

Even then, as their defense was essentially put aside in a game in which the Patriots scored for 340 yards and 173 points more, the Chiefs can still hope for a potential rematch in January. The lead defender of the men's coverage in the 39-yard Gronkowski pass was reserve defensive back Josh Shaw, who had been inactive all season before Sunday night. The Chiefs only rushed three and ended up with a defensive back that had not taken a defensive shot in KC The uniform found itself face to face with the best tight end in the history of the league on a road out of the game with the match online. You can understand why Reid may not have been pleased with defensive coordinator Bob Sutton after the match.

Shaw was on the ground because the leaders were hit hard by injuries in their already limited high school. Eric Murray has not been able to play. Armani Watts and Daniel Sorensen are already on the injured list, but the real absence was the safety of the star, Eric Berry, who has not played yet this year while he was suffering badly in the heel. Justin Houston, who had a hamstring injury, was defeated by a loss of $ 33.6 million. All Pros have been unable to play Sunday night. It showed.

Berry was last seen by chance, arresting Gronk. He has not played since the start of the season in 2017, when Berry helped Gronkowski score two passes and 33 yards on six targets before tearing his Achilles in the fourth quarter. The Kansas City Secondary School no longer looks in good shape since the end of Berry and, even though there is no guarantee that he can close Gronk the next time these two teams will play, old Berry is one of the few defenders of the league to be able to. to hold against him in the cover of the man. The Chiefs may have lost, but I think they will hope for a rematch against these Patriots with a more experienced Mahomes and a healthy Berry. To be honest, after watching one of the games of the year on Sunday night, I hope we will also see a rematch in January.

The Rams would start 6-0

Instead, it's not just that the Rams started 6-0. His How they started 6-0. When you look at the ESPN victory probability statistics, the opponents do not even really need to procure additional equipment for the Rams this season. They were neglected in the second half for two times. After skewing 13-10 during the initial possession of the second half of the first week against the Raiders, the Rams were favored to win every second period defeat apart from their match against the Seahawks in Seattle.

The scary thing about Rams up to now, is that they seem to be able to walk on banana peel and continue. It was not an irreversible team. In the Seahawks game, they lost Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp as a result of injuries and gave Marcus Peters episodes of hypnosis over a long touchdown pass. In the Vikings' match, Wade Phillips's defense dropped at least one goal: intercept Kirk Cousins ​​and see kicker Sam Ficken miss a 28-yard goal, but the Rams still won by a touchdown against one of the best of the NFC. teams.

In Sunday's 23-20 win against Denver, the Rams were able to defeat the Broncos' excellent game, which had not yet kept the Von Miller couple's promise with the fifth overall pick Bradley Chubb. The rookie doubled his season total on Sunday, collecting three of Denver's five sacks while lining up against All-Pro tackle Andrew Whitworth. Jared Goff suffered only 22.9% of his fallout pressure, but the Broncos were able to cover enough ground to rush to catch Goff when he rushed.

to play

Ryan Clark explains why Todd Gurley is the key to Sean McVay's multi-purpose call and explains how it makes the Rams difficult to stop.

The crossing attack had a day to forget. While Kupp was temporarily leaving his team due to a lower leg injury and failed to get a pass, Goff scored only 14 of 28, totaling 201 yards and one interception. The pass bounced on substitute Josh Reynolds' chest and in the arms of Darian Stewart. give the Broncos a short field and a touchdown. The dominant offensive of the L.A. Red Zone did not reach Denver, scoring only 20 points in five trips inside the 20-yard line. Goff bagged points 3 and 3 to score a 47-yard field goal, which Cairo Santos immediately missed.

Instead, the running game in Los Angeles took over. Todd Gurley, who had only one run of 20 yards or more in 101 attempts to race, had four races over 20 yards in 28 races. The Broncos came in 20-13 with 20:57 to qualify in the fourth quarter, but the Rams sealed everything with a 5-minute, 30-second practice, which allowed them to complete a single pass, leading to a 21-yard field. yards of Santos. The Broncos scored a late touchdown to improve the final score, but they never touched the ball in the second half with a chance to tie the score or take the advantage.

The defense against the Broncos becomes a serious problem. Denver did not allow the opposing team to exceed 100 yards in the first three weeks of the season, but after Kareem Hunt ran for 121 yards in Week 4, the door was closed. Is open. The Jets ran for a hard money of 323 yards in the fifth week before the Rams followed with 39 yards in the sixth week. Vance Joseph's defense, ranked third in the race defense league a year ago, became the first team to drop at least 250 rushing yards in consecutive games since the 2011 Buccaneers.

If anything, it is about to become more difficult for the Rams. They have a relatively comfortable game against the 49ers in San Francisco, but they will then have the toughest part of their season: home games against the Packers, Seahawks and Chiefs, and a road trip to New Orleans. . The FPI gives them only a 17% chance of winning these four matches and 12.8% of not losing their match at 11-0. At the same time, however, the Rams could naturally feel comfortable with the numbers – or whoever else – right now.

"The history of the league" is a little exaggerated, but even after a breakthrough in 2017, what Thielen did to start the season is remarkable. Sunday marked Thielen's sixth consecutive game with 100 yards on the receiving end, while the Vikings' striker had 123 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's 27-17 victory over Arizona. He is now ready to touch 1899 yards at the end of the year, and although "rhythm" statistics can often be considered a travesty, Thielen shows no signs of dropping out.

Thielen became the 10th player in league history to cumulate six consecutive 100-yard games, joining the group that had recently figured Odell Beckham Jr. in 2015. The record is eight, set by Calvin Johnson in 2012 It's the year in which Megatron became the first player in league history to break the 1,900-yard mark at 36 yards from the legendary 2,000-yard mark.

Johnson has enjoyed a lot of trash time this season; while he did not set the record because he caught senseless passes, 278 of his yards at the reception went on orders in which his team had only a 1% chance of winning, which led the league. Thielen is 100 yards away this season, placing him third overall behind Zay Jones and Beckham.

to play

Adam Thielen says his celebration is called the Dead Arm Dance, and Kirk Cousins ​​explains how he was inspired by Thielen and Stefon Diggs.

It is remarkable to think that things could have happened differently. The Vikings have almost marginalized Thielen after the 2016 season by trying to sign a contract of several years to Alshon Jeffery. The addition of Jeffery would have pushed Thielen into the slot and would have taken away much of his target share, given that the third failure of the Vikings' real offense in 2017 – Laquon Treadwell – had only reached 35 targets. Thielen would probably have seen something like 50 or 60 targets before hitting the free agent in 2018.

Instead, Jeffery rejected the Minnesota offer and went to Philadelphia. The Vikings focused their efforts on extending Thielen, who signed a $ 19.3 million contract over four years. At this point, Thielen's deal should be considered the best veteran football contract when you remember lower underdogs such as Paul Richardson and Albert Wilson have received $ 8 million in bids per season this spring. Sammy Watkins will earn almost more in the average year of his current contract ($ 16 million) than Thielen will do with his entire new contract. The product of the state of Minnesota would touch close to $ 20 million per season when it was moving to a free agency in 2019.

Forget the pre-season; this one seemed unlikely as recently as this week, when Ryan Tannehill's shoulder injury apparently went from nuisance to problem. Tannehill was traded Sunday morning, opening the door to Osweiler for what appeared to be a counter-current confrontation against the Bears. You can imagine Vic Fangio's defense drooling at the prospect of facing a quarterback for part or all of a match for the fourth time in five games.

And then, perhaps even to Osweiler's surprise, he had the game of his life against the Bears, a 31-28 overtime win. The same Osweiler, who had recorded 72.9 passers since leaving the Broncos, totaled 380 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday. Osweiler threw two interceptions, but he brought back the Dolphins for two decisive TDs in the fourth quarter, put them in position for a winning touchdown in overtime, and then recovered after the unimaginable breakaway of the line. Kenyan Drake's goal to complete two passes. and set up the winning field goal with 3 seconds to go.

Although Osweiler could have made more shots than anybody would have expected on Sunday, we can probably miss something from his performance. His two interceptions on either side of the half-time, both with cornerback Biles Kyle Fuller, were completely out of Bad Brock's playbook. They prepared the Bears for a touchdown and cost the Dolphins a three-pointer, and the resulting 10-point swing was enough to advance the game in overtime.

In particular, the 6-foot-7 Super Bowl winner was helped by a fierce Miami receivers game. While Osweiler did screen checks throughout the game, the Dolphins racked up 274 yards after capture on Sunday, including two long touch passes by Albert Wilson. The YAC total in Miami was the highest for a quarterback in a single game this season and the fifth highest of the decade. In terms of percentage of yards, 72.1% of Osweiler shipyards were generated by its receivers after the take, making it the 10th total for a smuggler with 40 or more attempts over that period.

The Dolphins focused on the receivers who can create after the take – they were fourth on average for YAC – but it was an incredible loss to a team that had the league's fifth-best league record in the league. prevention. yards after taking in the game. The Dolphins have consistently done what was the league's best defense against the DVOA after the restart. While Osweiler got the ball quickly and Khalil Mack was slowed down by an ankle injury and successful double teams, the Bears failed to register a sack and reversed the quarter on just four occasions. out of 44 launched. If you do not rush the quarter and do not attack after recovering the ball, even Brock Osweiler can beat you.

The Dolphins would have the most terrifying red zone defense of football

What dolphins do in the red zone is unsustainable … except that they continue to do so. The goal of a good red zone defense is to keep the teams out of the goal zone and to maintain offensive offensives at goals. Doing this was enough to win the Patriots game on Sunday night. The opposing strikers have nine touchdowns against just three goals when they find themselves in the red zone of Miami this season, a ratio that a defense coordinator would not want to see next to his team.

What is remarkable, is that dolphins were faced with 21 possessions of the red zone. The NFL midfielder outside of South Florida turns about 12% of the opponents in the red zone into elements that do not allow points. This average team has two things this season. Miami has new. The opposing offenses failed to score more than 42% of their trips to the interior of the promised land against the Dolphins.

It will be difficult for the Dolphins to continue in this direction, but I would have said that before the Bears match and Miami continues. Over the last decade, no team has accumulated more than nine points to retain from the red zone in a full season, with the 2012 Patriots topping the list. The 2017 Dolphins have experienced the entire season with no business in the red zone. Outside of their own red zone this season, the Dolphins basically have an average 2.5% league delivery rate. (The average is 2.4%.) If Miami was really a takeaway, you would have thought that it would begin to do so before entering the shadow of its own end zone. .

Even if the red zone defense does not stay as good, the Dolphins have a high enough talent to continue to lose their passes and find themselves at the height of the AFC playoff picture. . Even after losing a heart broken by the Bengals last week, the Dolphins still have a 21% chance of making a comeback in the postseason, according to the FPI. With Lions, Texans and Jets at the schedule of the next three weeks, the Dolphins could start a winning streak.

Texans would be in first place in AFC South

As someone who was rather optimistic about the Texans before the season, it would not have shocked me to believe that Bill O'Brien's team would be at the top of the AFC Cup South and in a position to qualify for the playoffs after six weeks. Nor will I pretend for a moment that my optimism was justified. It was a bad team during those six weeks, one that managed to concoct a series of three consecutive wins over the generosity and mistakes of his opponents.

• Face à une équipe de Titans sans Marcus Mariota ni aucun de leurs combats offensifs de départ lors de la deuxième semaine, les Texans ont pondu un œuf, permettant à Tennessee de marquer un touché sur un faux botté de frappe dans lequel les Texans n'ont tout simplement pas couvert le tireur d'un côté du ballon. champ.

• Au cours de la semaine 3, les Texans ont permis à Eli Manning de marquer 25 buts sur 29 pour un total de 297 verges avec deux touchés dans son premier match à domicile. Ils ont pénétré sept fois à l'intérieur de la ligne des 35 verges de New York et ont marqué trois buts avant deux touchés pour que le score soit proche. Deshaun Watson a également été choisi dans la zone des buts par Alec Ogletree.

• Pour remporter leur première victoire de la 4e semaine, les Texans devaient se voir offrir un court peloton par l'entraîneur des Colts, Frank Reich, qui a curieusement choisi de l'attaquer aux quatrième et quatrième manches de sa propre ligne de 43 verges en prolongation avec 27 secondes. go.

• Au cours de la cinquième semaine, les Texans ont échoué au début de la partie en inscrivant un jeu brutal au quatrième but et au but. Ils ont laissé tomber leur choix de six choix, leur gestion de l’horloge a été retardée avant que Watson ne déclenche une interception horriblement chronométrée, puis l’entraîneur des Cowboys, Jason Garrett, a décidé quatrième et un de la ligne des 42 mètres de Houston en prolongation, avant que le ballon parti de DeAndre Hopkins ne marque un but gagnant.

Dimanche, les Texans ont confortablement mené Josh Allen et les Bills 10-0 à la mi-temps. Buffalo avait 69 verges offensives, alors que les Texans étaient sur le point de prendre le ballon. Un score aurait peut-être mis le jeu hors de portée. Au lieu de cela, les Texans ont accumulé autant de premiers essais que de cadeaux (deux) sur leurs cinq prochains disques, marquant ainsi zéro point.

Lors de leur sixième et dernier tour de la demie, Watson a de nouveau échappé, mais les Texans ont récupéré. Houston a ensuite piloté Hopkins et une pénalité pour interférence de passe de 41 verges à la ligne de Buffalo, mais a été repoussé à la ligne des 8 verges par une course de moins un mètre, un laissez-passer de moins un mètre et une fausse début. Watson a raté un troisième essai et les Texans (13-10) ont été obligés de marquer un but égalisateur. Et puis Nathan Peterman est arrivé …

Brock Osweiler and Nathan Peterman lancerait des passes de touché moins d'une heure les uns des autres

Peterman a assez bien joué pour que les Bills prennent les devants. Après que les Bills aient marqué un but pour porter le score à 10-6, Peterman a repris un court peloton et a converti les troisième et 11e avec un fade parfait à Zay Jones pour donner aux Bills la tête. Lors du trajet suivant, Peterman convertissait les troisième et troisième et troisième et 15 pour gagner un temps précieux sur l'horloge tandis que les Texans traînaient avant que les Bills ne finissent par cogner à 4:08.

to play

Johnathan Joseph sécurise l'interception et la restitue à 28 mètres pour le touché décisif.

Vous savez ce qui s'est passé ensuite, bien sûr. Après que les Texans aient égalé le score, les Bills ont pris le dessus avec 1:34 à faire et deux dépassements de temps. Alors que la défense de Houston n’avait aucune peur de voir Peterman effectuer des lancers précis, le produit de Pittsburgh a jeté un choix brutal à Jonathan Joseph pour donner aux Texans une avance de 20-13. Les Bills ont même eu la chance d'égaliser à 1:16 de la fin, mais Peterman a lourdement renversé LeSean McCoy au milieu du terrain lors d'une vérification pour sa deuxième interception en 12 tentatives de passes.

À ce stade, Peterman se rapproche de niveaux historiquement mauvais. À une époque où les quarts jettent les interceptions moins souvent que jamais auparavant, Peterman a lancé 10 choix sur 82 tentatives de passes au cours de la saison régulière et des séries éliminatoires. Tyrod Taylor, que Peterman a remplacé la saison dernière, n’a fait que sept choix sur 541 passes depuis le début de 2017. Alex Smith a lancé sept interceptions sur 709 tentatives de passes au cours de la même période. Smith pourrait lancer des interceptions à chacune de ses 90 prochaines tentatives et avoir toujours un meilleur taux d'interception que Peterman depuis le début de 2017.

Les Jaguars donneraient 40 points aux Cowboys

Au lieu de cela, les Cowboys ont mis l’accent sur de petits avantages. Ils ont récupéré les trois échappés du match. Dak Prescott a lancé pour seulement 183 verges, mais il a amassé 82 verges au sol et un touché à faire avec deux scores de passes. The only receiver Prescott hit more than twice was slot receiver Cole Beasley, who took advantage of blown coverages and mismatches against the likes of Tyler Patmon to rack up nine catches, 101 yards and two touchdowns.

Since their triumphant win over the Patriots to go to 2-0, the Jaguars have faltered. They're 1-3, and the offense has been a bigger problem than the defense. Since he threw for 376 yards and four touchdowns during the Week 2 win over the Patriots, Bortles has spent the next month struggling to find any traction. He has posted a 75.5 passer rating over the past four games, with four touchdowns against six interceptions. He offered virtually nothing in the 9-6 loss in Week 3 to the Titans, when even a decent game would have resulted in victory given that an injured Marcus Mariota could barely spin the ball.

to play

Jeff Saturday explains why the Jaguars were knocked out by the Cowboys.

Bortles racked up meaningless yardage against the Chiefs in Week 5, so when the situation-adjusted Total QBR algorithm looks at his numbers, it pegs Bortles for a mark of 37.1 over the past month, placing him between C.J. Beathard and Josh Allen in 30th place. He's looking up at both Eli Manning and Case Keenum over that stretch.

You can blame the injuries along the offensive line for those problems, and Bortles is indeed taking heat. He's being pressured on 33.7 percent of his dropbacks, which is 25th in the league. The line isn't about to get any healthier. Jacksonville is already on its third-string left tackle with Cam Robinson and Josh Wells on injured reserve, and it signed colossal Giants washout Ereck Flowers to potentially fill in once he learns the playbook. Andrew Norwell, Brandon Linder and A.J. Cann have all missed time with injuries.

The defense will eventually help out with takeaways. The Jags forced turnovers in 17 of their 19 games last season, missing out only on a pair of midseason games against the Colts and Bengals. Over the past month, they've forced only two takeaways, both coming against Mahomes during the loss to the Chiefs. The Jags forced 17 fumbles last season — six from Yannick Ngakoue alone — but had created only one fumble all season before the Cowboys fumbled twice on Sunday. Jacksonville didn't recover either of those fumbles, but you can't recover a fumble without creating one. The Jags need to start creating takeaways and protecting Bortles to get back atop the AFC South.

Let's finish up with Rivers, who seemed to get painted with the same brush as Eli Manning over the past few years in terms of throwing his team into two or three losses per season. Over his past 16 games, Rivers has a case as the best quarterback in the league. His numbers are instructive. Since Week 7 of last season, Rivers is 352-for-539 passing for 4,584 yards with 33 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 106.2 passer rating is third among qualifying starters over that time frame behind Drew Brees and Jared Goff, while he trails only Carson Wentz with a Total QBR of 74.1. (Wentz, at 74.4, has taken 114 fewer dropbacks.)

As always, Rivers has done that while shuffling through offensive pieces. His offensive line is already beat up. Hunter Henry is out for the year. Travis Benjamin is missing. Keenan Allen has only one touchdown. His wideouts dropped catchable balls that cost the Chargers 115 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 1 loss to the Chiefs. Melvin Gordon dropped a red zone pass into Christian Kirksey's hands for an interception in Sunday's 38-14 rout of the Browns, Rivers' third pick of the year.