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She is almost certainly right. And the reason is, well, mathematics.
Let's look at the numbers starting with this one: 23. This is the number of seats that Democrats must win to be able to take the majority back to the House in six days.
Of these 49 people, Republicans currently hold 42 – including 29 vacant seats, 10 lean democratic districts and 3 presumably Democrats. (A GOP seat – the 2nd of New Jersey – is considered to be solid democratic.)
Give the Democrats ONLY the seats of Republicans that are strong, leaning or likely to replace them as of today, and the minority party is more than halfway to reconquer the House. Give the Democrats the GOP seats that are leaning or likely to replace them and simply split the Republican races in the center – 14 for Democrats, 15 for Republicans – and you have a pickup of 28 seats for Democrats, more than they must regain the majority in the House lost in the 2010 elections.
Suppose the Democrats fall back mainly in the races – the story tells us that a party tends to win the lion's share of the closest races – and that the Democrats not only win the House, but the do with a comfortable margin. If Democrats win 75% of all races qualified as fights (and take all GOP seats inclined or likely to play for the opposition party), you are talking about a gain of more than 40 seats.
The point here is that the potential of Democrats – as a young sportsman in the NBA project – is very high. And the party's own vulnerabilities are almost non-existent. Three seats held by the Democrats are currently classified as fighting or worse: 1) the 14th Pennsylvania Open District, where representative Conor Lamb (D) left to run (and probably win) in the 17th district; 2) the 8th district of Minnesota, where Republican Pete Stauber is slightly favored to win a Democratic seat; and 3) the 1st open district of Minnesota. And that's all. Three places.
The significance of this massive inequality in terms of vulnerability is that even in a national political environment that leans – even slightly – towards the Democrats, the party is extremely well placed to win these 23 seats and perhaps many more.
It is six days after the election, it is a fact.
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