Nancy Pelosi: What Democrats Think of His "Transitional" Speech

Soto, who has long supported the idea of ​​a transition plan and supports Pelosi, said it would be useful to know very early who would be the heir.

"I think a lot of that will be determined in the elections," he said, citing next month's caucus elections that will determine not only place # 1 in the caucus, but also a series of positions of responsibility.

Math problems are looming

The calculation can be tricky. Eleven of the 26 Democrats in the running, 11 said they would oppose Pelosi as president, while 19 other Democrats who are in districts that rely on democracy or who are Firmly in favor of their party said they would oppose it, according to a CNN tally. These numbers are increasing among Democrats in Republican meager districts.

Pelosi can win the Democratic nomination to become president with only a simple majority in caucus elections. It becomes more difficult in January, when the whole House votes and will require 218 votes, which is equivalent to a majority of the House at that time.

If Democrats have a significant majority – say, 230 or 240 – Pelosi could afford to lose some support from his ground caucus and win the presidency. If the majority is thin – say 220 – his journey is more difficult.

This is the argument of transition that could help, say some MPs, especially for new freshmen who campaigned to vote against it.

"I think it would help some of the blitzed candidates with anti-Pelosi ads to be able to say that she will not be here forever, giving them some coverage," said another Democratic member who does not speak no elections to the leadership and asked not to be named.

But there is another trap that could help Pelosi. According to the rules of the House, a president is elected by a majority of the members who vote for an individual. If members choose not to run – or vote "present" – the threshold for becoming a speaker is lowered. That happened in 2014, when the then president, John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, got 216 votes out of 408 votes.

Pelosi runs under his leadership

"If Nancy Pelosi is running for president, it's because we won the majority, and a good deal of that will be under her leadership to support our caucus and our candidates across the country," said the representative. Eric Swalwell, California Democrat. "And I think that will have eliminated the argument that she drags the candidates."

Pelosi's allies told CNN that she had no intention of giving up the presidency and letting Hoyer or Clyburn serve as a gateway to the next generation of leaders. In other words, if she retires, she expects Hoyer or Clyburn to leave her, sources said, although this decision ultimately returns to both men.

By all accounts, however, Pelosi does not seem to be going anywhere.

"I'm really expecting her to be the speaker," said California representative Ro Khanna, adding that if the Democrats won, Pelosi would be in charge. of a major victory including a large number of female candidates. "I can not imagine how we could not … allow him to claim at least the hammer."

Proponents of the idea of ​​transition also believe that it makes sense that the caucus itself goes through a major transition – from minority to majority for the first time in eight years.

"I think you need an experienced person at the highest level to help us organize this and to get organized and get off to a good start," said Representative Robin Kelly of Illinois.

Facing new students, Democrats opposition

It is unclear, however, how effective the speech will be on new students and incumbents who have already vowed to oppose Pelosi – some of whom may need to keep the mallet one more time.

"I think the time has come for someone new," said Paul Davis, Democratic House candidate in Kansas, about the idea of ​​a transition.

The Democratic representative Kurt Schrader of Oregon, critic at the voice of Pelosi, described his speech as a "desperate" attempt to become a speaker "at the expense of the Democratic Party".

Schrader told CNN that he and other incumbents who oppose Pelosi will provide a "safe place" for new freshmen in Congress this fall, as they face pressure to go back on their campaign promise and support Pelosi on the ground.

"We respect the work that she has done in the past, but there is always time to move forward," he said. "Unfortunately, she does not see that for the moment."

In her recent comments, Pelosi refused to set a deadline for passing the relay, claiming that she would not make a "lame duck".

"There has to be a transition at any time," Pelosi told CNN's Dana Bash at an event on CNN last week.

Nevertheless, while members equate the idea of ​​a leader of the transition, some want clarification. Another member who asked not to be named, said the caucus would need "much more clarity" to know if Pelosi would stay for "six months" or several years. "A transition could be a little more peaceful.The inconvenience of this peace is uncertainty."

While Pelosi quietly and closely worked with younger members to help them get into the caucus, the minority leader told the LA Times newspaper that she would not participate in choosing the next generation of leaders.

"Whoever comes next is not mine," she said. "If I said," I want so-and-so to be my successor, "it's not correct."

And if the idea of ​​transition is enough to satisfy his caucus – especially the new members who have moved away from her during the election campaign – remains to be seen.

"Her biggest challenge will be with new members who are committed to publicly supporting someone else (plus, of course, current members who do not want her)," she said. a Democratic member. "In the end, these things could be a real problem to reach 218."