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NASA is currently building a giant rocket to send the astronauts back to the moon and, eventually, to transport the first crews to and from Mars.
But agency leaders are already considering the decommissioning of the Space Launch System (SLS), as it is called by the massive government rocket that has not yet flown, and the Orion space capsule.
NASA is planning the emergence of two mega-rockets that are reusable, and probably more affordable, created by private aerospace companies.
These systems are the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR), built by Elon Musk's SpaceX; and the New Glenn, a launcher built by Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin.
Read more: Elon Musk and SpaceX build a monster rocket for Mars. Here is how it is compared to 20 familiar objects.
"I think that if these commercial capabilities are put online, we will eventually pull out the government system and move to a buying capacity for launchers [rockets]Stephen Jurczyk, NASA's Associate Administrator, told Business Insider at the "The Economist Space" summit on November 1st.
However, NASA may soon find itself in a strange position, as the two private launch systems could overturn SLS on the moon – and one could be the first to send people to Mars.
The super-size is fighting with SLS
Space Launch System is often called a super-heavy rocket. This means that it is designed to launch a payload of over 55 tons (about the mass of a battle tank) into a low Earth orbit.
"We need a [super-]Jurczyk said: "Without this capability, we will not have a safe, reliable, and affordable architecture and implementation for human exploration."
Several iterations of SLS are planned in the 2020s. The first one is called Block 1. This rocket is expected to be about 322 feet in height and can be used to put about 70 tons of equipment and supplies of spacecraft in orbit.
NASA hopes to test and launch the first Block 1 rocket in June 2020 on a flight called Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1). The mission is to prove that SLS is safe and reliable by sending an unarmed Orion spacecraft around the moon and on Earth.
A crewed exploration mission 2 (EM-2) would follow several years later.
But until now, NASA has spent about $ 11.9 billion for SLS, and the agency would need $ 4 billion to $ 5 billion more than expected in 2021. In addition, the date of Expected launch of the EM-1 in June 2020 is about 2.5 years late. program.
An internal audit of NASA's program revealed that avoidable accidents, contract management problems and other performance issues related to Boeing, the prime contractor, are largely responsible for overruns. costs and delays.
Some experts estimate the average cost of launching SLS, a single-use rocket, at $ 5 billion. Presumably, SpaceX or Blue Origin could be launched at a fraction of that price since their future vehicles are reusable.
If the SLS program causes even more problems, NASA can also watch SpaceX beat the agency on the moon with a crewed mission. Indeed, Musk, the founder of the company, strives to meet deadlines to explore the solar system with BFR.
How SpaceX could beat NASA on the Moon
SpaceX employees worked in a tent in Los Angeles to build the top half of the system, called Big Falcon Spaceship.
Musk and Gwynne Shotwell, President of SpaceX, both said the spacecraft could make short launches called "hops" by the end of 2019.
Musk also plans to turn the upper deck of its Falcon 9 super-rocket into a "mini-BFR" to test and refine some of the most challenging aspects of designing a fully reusable spacecraft. An obstacle: to test a heat shield that survives reincarnation in the Earth 's atmosphere (to protect a crew and allow the spacecraft to be refueled and launched again).
In 2020 or 2021, he plans to launch a fully integrated version of BFR – a Big Falcon booster with the Big Falcon spacecraft at the top – in orbit around the Earth. (About the same time, Blue Origin plans to use New Glenn, much of which can land on Earth and be reused, to land a lander on the surface of the moon to search for ice. water.)
If the first orbital launch of SpaceX and, later, unprepared missions unfold without an explosion or incident, the company plans to launch a Japanese billionaire and a group of artists around the moon in 2023.
It remains to be seen how the space agency would react to such a feat, which is essentially a creative revival of the 1968 Apollo 8 mission. In fact, 2023 is the same year NASA plans to launch the EM-2 satellite around the moon.
It is also unclear what NASA would do if SpaceX launched its first unmanned Mars missions with BFR in 2022, followed by the first crewed missions to the red planet in 2024. The space agency has been in the space of several years hope to land people on the moon. and maybe a decade earlier than NASA would attempt a crew landing on Mars.
"We have not yet explained to SpaceX how we would work together on BFR and come to a mission on Mars – for now," Jurczyk said of NASA's leadership. "I guess it happens."
An American space agency without American spaceship
Jurczyk said that at the present time, he and other space agency leaders were focusing on the laser test launches of his commercial crew program, a competition aimed at private companies for the construction and launch of American-made spaceships.
Commercial Crew's ultimate goal is to revive US spaceflight capabilities that the agency lost in the withdrawal of its space shuttle fleet in 2011. (Since then, NASA has relied only on Russia to transport its astronauts between 150 billion US dollars.)
Boeing and SpaceX have each designed and manufactured space capsules for seven people, which are about to be approved for non-equipped and equipped test launches. SpaceX is currently looking to fly first with his ship Crew Dragon.
"Their first unprepared flight test, for the moment, is scheduled for January, and they will be followed a few months later, possibly in the spring, with their first crewed flight test for the space station," Jurczyk said. .
Read more: Boeing may have used a lobbying company to create a scathing article on SpaceX in the US media. Billions of dollars are at stake in NASA contracts.
Once Boeing's Crew Dragon and CST-100 Starliner ships have proven that they can safely and reliably launch, agency executives will further discuss their future in the future. deep space with BFR and New Glenn from Blue Origin.
"Our commitment will depend very much on the pace at which these systems and capabilities develop," Jurczyk said.
The key for NASA is to get a very heavy transport capacity as quickly as possible.
"Currently, we are seeing the way to do this via SLS, because we have some sense of the head and we are using these technologies and legacy systems," he said, referring to the fact that SLS will use engines space shuttle and other well-material technologies included.
"It's a bit of what we are," added Jurczyk. "We know we need this type of BFR – and whatever New Glenn's evolution – of heavy haulage capacity if we are going to explore the solar system by man." We do not think that another approach will be as safe and affordable. " and reliable. "
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