Natural gas prices jumped 18%, the biggest rise in 4 years

With forecasts adjusted to cooler temperatures, natural gas prices have been declining and have now risen 49% since the beginning of November. Government data released last week showed that the amount of natural gas stored in US storage facilities increased by 65 billion cubic feet to 3,208 cubic feet, or 15 billion cubic feet. % less than last year and 16% less than the average of the last five years. According to Kilduff, it was also the smallest amount of gas stored during the first week of November, since 2003.

"It's more like a short press than anything else, there's more cold weather on the horizon, and some weather forecasts have been reinforced," Kilduff said. "Any kind of cold start-of-season wind like this will cause worry and worry about the very limited supply as winter approaches."

Mark Fisher, CEO of MBF Asset Management, has associated volatile morning trading with the loosening of a popular hedge fund strategy.

"What has happened is that you have had a considerable number of macroeconomic funds that … for years have been buying mostly oil, selling natural gas, and the traders have done extremely well, and in a very good way. little time, this trade has imploded and I "I'm sure many people drawing a margin from this trade are forced to buy natural gas and sell crude oil, which has added to this new energy debacle "said Fisher in an interview with" Squawk Box ".

The United States is the world's largest producer of natural gas and gas prices have been under control in recent years. Gas prices were above USD 4 per MMBtu in 2014, a year of extreme cold, known as the 'polar vortex'.

"The March and April gap is almost as chilly as the previous month [futures contract], "said the McGillian gene from Tradition Energy.

"This suggests that the market has stabilized (…) We have not seen this type of price force since the polar vortex and this followed an icy cold in the morning. Winter 2013/14, "said McGillian. "It's mid-November, and the situation is explosive, mainly with extremely low storage levels and a reminder of the demand for a long, cold winter. This has created a volatile cocktail on the market. "

Analysts said the amount of gas stored fell as warm weather persisted in October, which led to increased use of air conditioning. Unlike other years, there was no break between the use of air conditioning and heating.

Some analysts say US exports add to the storage deficit. The United States exports liquefied natural gas on board ships, as well as by pipeline to Mexico.