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Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I am Lisa Lerer, your host.
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In the White House, President Trump warned of an "immigration crisis": a caravan of migrant criminals bringing drugs into the country had "violently invaded Mexico" and that the United States was at the edge of an "invasion".
At the same time, less than three kilometers from the southern border, Democratic Senate candidate Beto O. Rourke had another message: "It has never been a better time for us to live, to live in Texas and to be in the United States. Border with Mexico, "he told Brownsville voters, Tex.
Mr. O'Rourke is determined to tell another story, no matter what the chair decides to say. The two men spoke simultaneously this afternoon, both saying things to reduce their participation mid-term.
Every few hours or so, it seems that Mr. Trump is trying to turn the last days of this campaign into an immigration referendum.
In the past few days alone, the call for get rid of birthright citizenship; the promise to move up to 15,000 soldiers up to the border; and the advertising campaign he tweeted – widely denounced on the left and described as "racist"and"disgusting"By some anti-Trump conservatives – featuring a Mexican immigrant who was convicted of the murder of two police officers.
The reason why Mr. Trump insists on the question is obvious: polls show that it drives its base.
What is less clear is the reaction of the Democrats. This is a problem that illustrates, once again, how the party is trying to make its way through Trump's time.
Not having a national message is not a major problem in a mid-term election, where candidates are given the opportunity to take positions suited to their states. But it is a dilemma that will quickly become the heart of the party's fortunes in 2020.
Several candidates in the midwestern competitive races have become almost Trump Lite on immigration. Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri urged Trump to "use all the tools at her disposal" to stop the migrant caravan, adding, "I am 100% supportive of this."
Phil Bredesen, Democratic candidate for the Tennessee Senate, released an announcement Tuesday promoting his decision to deploy the Tennessee National Guard on the southern border.
Mr. O'Rourke proposes a different model. In Brownsville, where I spent the afternoon covering his rally, he never mentioned the name of the president, claiming he had not seen Mr. Trump's new ad. Instead, he presented the current moment in historical and general terms, comparing it to the civil rights movement.
"We, the citizens of Texas, came together for this country when it mattered most," he told the crowd cheering gathered in a historic civic center.
Mr. O'Rourke, who has withdrawn from most of the traditional campaign mechanisms, is betting that he can build a new coalition of dissatisfied suburbs of Mr. Trump, young voters and Latinos, many of whom have never voted in their lives.
"This desire to arouse paranoia and fear on the part of the American public is a political ploy," O'Rourke said. "The people of Texas need to remember it. We do not need troops at the border.
Shortly after his intervention, the Associated Press reported that the first hundred troops had arrived at the border.
Such comments are a key part of O'Rourke's brand. Obsessed with authenticity, he says things – like defending the N.F.L. demonstrations or pressures for gun control – this might seem quirky in deep red Texas.
And yes, before I start sending me voting lists, Mr. O'Rourke faces a difficult climb.
But it is also undeniable that this guy has built something unexpected in the Lone Star State. He organizes thousands gatherings in small towns. He rolls in the money. There are t-shirts. Hats worn by celebrities. And even Halloween costumes. (So many Halloween costumes.)
He now has a list of supporters and a bank account that are the envy of many Democrats and may become even more coveted as the party focuses on the 2020 presidential race.
The absolute liberalism of Mr. O. Rourke – a model adopted by Andrew Gillum, the governor's candidate in Florida, and, to a lesser extent, by Stacey Abrams, the governor's candidate in Georgia – makes it possible to check whether, at least Trump's time, the answer for the Democrats is on the left.
It is certainly a way to raise tons of money. But will it be enough to thwart a president who is ready to stoke the biggest fears of his supporters to lead them to the polls? We will know it in five days.
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From Opinion: Trump and the midterms
The intermediate sessions always concern the current president. And then there's 2018: Even though he's not on the ballot, President Trump seems to worry everyone. Our colleagues from Opinions pages sent us this today:
Following the recent terrorist wave, the president was caught between the role of national conciliator and Republican supporter. Our opinion writers – from left to right – agreed that, with their eyes fixed on polling day, he had kissed him too much and not the first.
"How does a conservative movement supposed to believe that any healthy society needs powerful moral safety slides leave it in the hands of a president whose other statements will cheerfully tear down these crash barriers?" Our columnist Bret Stephens wrote.
If he failed as a conciliator, did he deliver as a supporter? Ross Douthat is uncertain: "In a week, the safest bet is to go back to the strategy he had followed in 2016, Trump would get – and deserve – a more disappointing political result," he wrote. .
Most people believe that Republicans will hold the Senate. For the House, sitting chairs usually lose seats in the House and this year does not seem to be an exception to the rule.
At least in one part of the country, it's really not the rhetoric of the president. The problem, wrote Timothy P. Carney, editor of the Washington Examiner, is that Mr. Trump turned Rust Belt voters into "Trump voters, but never Republicans". in the Midwest.
We will all need a break from the election season, wrote Gail Collins. The president's rhetorical speech probably came when he went to the synagogue where 11 people were murdered and said nothing.
At this time next week, the 2018 elections will be over. This weekend in Sunday Review, we plan to look into future plans for 2020. President Trump is never far from the conversation.
As the elections approach, the Times live survey project Speak to voters in some of the closest races. Today & # 39; hui, Nate Cohn and the Upshot team highlighted some ongoing surveys:
Tom Malinowski's eight-point lead over moderate Republican MP Leonard Lance Seventh of New Jersey is probably the best Democratic show in our polls this week. The district is a good indicator of races in well-educated suburbs, and there are signs of a lot of G.O.P. defection.
On election day, we may know if Democrats can excel beyond the suburbs and make progress in the Trump country. The polls close at 6 pm in Kentucky, and a lot of looks (and a needle) are going to be on Amy McGrath, new political adventurer and former fighter pilot with a widely shared campaign ad. We are probing Sixth from Kentucky tonight. She trailed by one point in our survey in early September.
You can see all our polls here.
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What to read tonight
• Our colleague Elizabeth Dias has appealed to young evangelicals to tell us about the relationship between their faith and their politics. Nearly 1500 responded. Here are six, from all political horizons, with their own words.
• After hoarding 67,000 acres of Nevada desert, a mysterious buyer revealed his vision: a blockchain-based community. Read the story.
• The trees of the Amazon rainforest absorb each year a quarter of the carbon absorbed by the planet. The new Brazilian president plans to allow rapid deforestation, writes the magazine New York, creating a catastrophe of climate change.
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… Seriously
And the winner of our first annual Halloween Costume Contest is …
Carter in California! He dressed as a "typical politician", his mother, Sue, told us with a belly and a big tie that she made for her costume.
"The final outfit included excerpts from stupid / painful quotes from various politicians over the last 30 or so years, which he pinned onto his shirt," said Sue. "Someone wants a potato?"
Thank you to everyone who sent photos! As a bonus, here are some of our favorites that we spotted on social media:
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