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It is therefore not surprising that the Brexit deal proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May fails to hope for a better deal than that already provided by Britain.
The beleaguered Prime Minister's best argument is that the agreement reflects the will of those who voted in favor of Brexit in 2016. It complies with the Brexit Brexit standard. But only.
The May agreement covers four key areas:
- the future status of residents in each other's countries;
- outstanding payment obligations of the United Kingdom towards the EU;
- the details of the relationship between the transition period from March 30, 2019 to December 31, 2020;
- and the Irish backstop, which concerns relations between Northern Ireland, Britain and the EU.
Most of the critical issues of future relations appear in a seven-page political statement subject to further negotiations. During the transition and in the foreseeable future, this agreement would bring the United Kingdom to the status of rule-taker.
To "leave" the lawyers who predicted that the EU would stop insisting on adhering to its fundamental, treaty-based "Four Freedoms" in order to maintain access to the single market, the negotiations offered a brutal awakening.
The ensuing process revealed that Brexit supporters were miserably ignorant of the breadth and complexity of the UK's forged EU membership. Or worse.
Although it is more likely that it is unlikely that a Brexit "without agreement" will be avoided, the policy and processes over the next four months and over make it more possible that it should be the case.
If May survives the attacks of her own party, can she collect votes in Parliament to make an agreement? If she can not, and then? Here are some scenarios.
New relationship
Members may soon understand that the May agreement is the best option. A majority could still vote for her. Those who focus on more freedoms to impose immigration controls could describe the deal as a success.
The approval would largely represent the maintenance of the status quo for most businesses, investors and individuals and would reduce the uncertainties and risks of a harsh and disruptive Brexit. Passage would reduce the specter of a government led by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose positions represent the UK's most radical left-wing agenda for generations.
New chef
May is currently facing a vote of censure, led by opposing Brexit supporters within his own party. Triggering a vote requires 48 letters, but the dismissal of the Prime Minister requires 158. It is far from clear that anyone can get enough support within his party to take over.
If the vote of censorship fails, the month of May is untouchable for at least a year. If that succeeds, his successor will probably oppose the current agreement and support a tougher Brexit.
New eelections
The rejection of May's proposed deal could lead to new elections. May, after rebuffing conservative rebels, could lead the party against the Labor Party in a de facto vote on its deal.
If May wins, the "new relationship" scenario results and the transaction continues. If the Labor Party prevails, an approval is always likely, followed by another, but still constructive, way of negotiating the terms of future relations with the EU.
New referendum
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair is one of the supporters of a new "People's Vote", saying the proposed agreement reflects the reality of what Brexit really means, which is unclear at the time of the referendum. Recent polls show a tendency to "stay," with a majority of 54-46.
In a referendum, voters could choose between: 1. staying; 2. the May agreement ("soft Brexit"); or 3. hard Brexit (in which the UK refuses the negotiated option and still leaves).
This makes a referendum complicated, given the likelihood that no option would command a majority, potentially confusing, without clarifying the situation.
New business
Some opponents of the May agreement are seeking to reopen negotiations. EU negotiators, both in Brussels and in powerful Member States, including Germany, have rejected this option. In these circumstances, it is unlikely that the general framework of the agreement will change.
New deadline
While the UK is concerned about national politics, the EU is considering elections to the European Parliament scheduled for May 2019. The United Kingdom is not expected to present any candidate. An extension of the Brexit deadline of 29 March is unlikely, as this could upset delicate European political dynamics.
New vote
If the May deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there could be a massive sell off of the financial markets. Such a reaction may require rethinking enough MPs to vote again for approval of the agreement, although bipartisan support for May's agreement (or another) seems unlikely.
Many conservative opponents are looking for a totally different style of Brexit and market reactions are unlikely to deter them. May's current majority is meager and depends on the votes of the party of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, which has already opposed this agreement.
Labor MPs, who could theoretically leave room for victory, are politically motivated and a financial market crisis is unlikely to affect them. Bipartite support for the May agreement (or another) is unlikely. The workers exceeded expectations when May called early elections in 2017 and they feel that any new election could give them back the power.
Not in agreement
Brexit supporters have long argued that no deal is better than a bad deal. The short- and medium-term impact of the lack of an agreement is likely to upset the UK economy and the lives of its residents. In the immediate future, outstanding emergency measures should be adopted en masse.
One-off and temporary measures would be needed to ensure that security, air transport, medical supplies and other essentials would continue with minimal disruption. However, no expedited mechanism exists to agree and implement such measures.
Despite the limited support granted to an uncompromising Brexit, it remains the default scenario, in the absence of an affirmative vote for anything else.
It does not matter
Once all the protagonists have understood how limited the UK's options are, a sufficient number of MPs and the public could realize that the country's vote in favor of the EU's exit has clearly underestimated the complexity of the relationship, its costs and its potential consequences.
Even if there is no new referendum, the absence of judicious options could give rise to a majority favorable to the revocation of the formal triggering of the Brexit process under Article 50. It is legally uncertain that the United Kingdom may unilaterally withdraw its opinion of Brexit.
However, it seems politically likely that, if asked early enough, a way to allow the UK to do so could be found.
This "thoughtless" scenario would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the European Union and take advantage of the benefits of membership, without interrupting the debate on legitimate concerns about the future of Europe; only this time, with a more realistic assessment of the issues.
Following next year's elections, the EU could also start tackling the issues raised not only by the UK but also by other countries seeking fundamental reforms in Europe.
An EU with a UK active and contributing as a member could well go in a direction that benefits both sides.
