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JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu survived Monday a political confrontation that threatened to bring down his coalition and trigger early elections.
Netanyahu was able to convince the Minister of Education, Naftali Bennett, leader of the ultra-nationalist Jewish party, to give up the threat of the coalition. This left his government with a small parliamentary majority and seemed to give the prime minister at least a few more months.
While Netanyahu can declare victory, the big winner of the crisis seems to be Hamas, the militant Islamist group that controls Gaza. Last week, Hamas revealed major divisions in Israel over Gaza politics that could result in the collapse of the ruling coalition at any time.
Here is a closer look:
CONFLICT IN GAZA
Israel and Hamas are fierce enemies who have waged three wars since the militant group took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Israel and Egypt have maintained a strict blockade on Gaza in order to weaken Hamas, devastating thus the already fragile economy of the territory.
Since the end of March, Hamas has organized mass demonstrations along Gaza's perimeter fence to lift the blockade. More than 170 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier were killed during the weekly demonstrations. But in recent weeks, Egyptian and US mediators have moved towards an unofficial ceasefire that would ease the blockade in exchange for placating protests.
These advances were disrupted last week when an Israeli military raid in Gaza unleashed two days of fierce fighting in which Palestinian militant groups fired about 460 projectiles, including an anti-tank missile that fired hit a bus, Israel, while the Israeli air force hit dozens of targets in Gaza.
In total, 14 Palestinians, including 12 militants, were killed, while a Palestinian worker working in Israel was killed by a rocket in Gaza.
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CRISIS IN ISRAEL
While the parties were on the brink of another war, Egyptian mediators set a truce to end the fighting. This triggered a political crisis in Israel.
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who had called for a much tougher response, resigned in protest. Bennett, who also wanted more action, said he would resign if he did not receive the defense portfolio.
Netanyahu on Sunday rejected Bennett's ultimatum and took control of the defense ministry, appearing to set the stage for the collapse of his coalition. But in a last minute turnaround, Bennett withdrew on Monday and said he would give Netanyahu a chance to tackle Israel's security problems more firmly.
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CALCULATION OF NETANYAHU
As leader of the opposition 10 years ago, Netanyahu vowed to take a harder line against Hamas than his predecessor, Ehud Olmert. However, since taking office in early 2009, Netanyahu has concluded that overthrowing Hamas would require a lengthy military operation that would cost many lives.
Reluctant to pay such a price, he seems to be content to control a weakened Hamas.
Maintaining silent Gaza benefits Netanyahu on many levels. The border cities of the working class in southern Israel are considered strongholds of the ruling party, the Likud. Netanyahu does not want elections at a time when his base is angry at the ceasefire.
Netanyahu also long claimed that Israel had more serious security problems on its northern front – Iranian forces being active in neighboring Syria and Hezbollah having amassed an arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles in Lebanon.
Yechiel Leiter, Netanyahu's former chief of staff, said the fight against Iran was the "hallmark" of the prime minister's agenda.
"Gaza is not an existential threat," said Leiter, who is now a senior fellow of the Kohelet Policy Forum, a conservative think tank. "Iran is the main program that plays backstage". That's why Netanyahu has not "fought hard" against Hamas, he said.
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DIVISION INSTEAD OF CONCESSIONS
Netanyahu can also have a more in-depth program.
Hamas took control of Gaza from the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority in 2007, leaving President Mahmoud Abbas in power in parts of the West Bank.
By allowing Hamas to survive, Netanyahu deepens the territorial and political split between the West Bank and Gaza. As Palestinians are weak and divided, Netanyahu has little incentive to make concessions, which allows him to expand settlements in the West Bank and strengthen Israeli control over the territory.
Abbas fears that Israel and the United States will collaborate in a peace plan that would cement this division, failing to meet his demand for an independent Palestinian state including the entire West Bank and Gaza under his control.
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HAMAS MEETS CARDS
Hamas is on top since the ceasefire. Suffering from a minimum of casualties, he has been gaining popularity among the public in Gaza and is now working with Egyptian mediators to extend the ceasefire to lift the blockade. Any recovery in the economy will deepen the group's government on Gaza.
In addition, Hamas has shown that while he may not be able to defeat the Israeli army, he could disrupt life in southern Israel and exert strong pressure on Netanyahu.
Another barrage of rockets would almost certainly bring about the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition or force him into a war he did not want. This should give Hamas additional weight as the ceasefire talks proceed.
Reuven Hazan, a political scientist at the Hebrew University, said Hamas had become a key factor in the upcoming Israeli election campaign. "The people of Gaza will be able to decide what issue we are focusing on, how much we are focusing on, and whether the government will be favorably viewed or not," he said.
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DELICATE BALANCING LAW
Netanyahu will have to proceed with caution. If the ceasefire talks move forward and he makes concessions to Hamas, he could face a reaction from Bennett, who can bring down the coalition and impose new elections at any time.
Another coalition partner, the centrist Kulanu party, urged Netanyahu last week to dissolve the government and hold early elections.
Its leader, Moshe Kahlon, has not issued any ultimatum. But the two men will meet later in the week, which means that Netanyahu is not out of the woods yet.
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Isabel DeBre, associate editor, contributed to the report.
Copyright 2018 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, disseminated, rewritten or redistributed.
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