Netflix, a darling of Wall Street again, confusing his own pessimistic predictions



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Just three months ago, Netflix was sentenced. Show ended, they said, and investors proceeded to a deactivation of the action as to a dramatic drama, hitting 15% of its value.

Today is hotter than the third season of Stranger Things (do you just want to give us a release date?), Netflix having exceeded the forecasts of Wall Street and its own subscribers.

If anyone needs a demonstration of the craziness of paying too much attention to a single shaking figure set at three months, it's here.

According to Netflix's indications, 5 million net subscribers should be added to the stack in the last quarter. The number has entered a smidgeon of less than 7 m, a new record for the period from July to September.

"As a reminder, the quarterly forecasts we provide are our internal forecasts at the time of reporting and we strive to make them accurate," said Chief Reed Hastings, pending action for the pessimism of the past. society. "This means that in some quarters we will be high and others low compared to our expectations."

Well, duh.

Under promise, no longer deliver, is intelligent. The problem is that Netflix took it to the point of appearing ridiculous, especially since there were good reasons to think that the third quarter would be better than the second disappointing.

Its content has been put forward, with notably a new season of Orange Is The New Black, one of its flagship products, as well as another release of the BoJack animation comedy Horseman and the second season of the Ozark police drama.

Netflix continues to invest heavily in its own programming, with more than a quarter of the $ 8 billion it spends on content for the local team. This means that you are spending a lot of money, but moving is wise.

Competition for externally produced rates is piling up with a host of newcomers seeking to join the streaming party, some in the United States, but many more elsewhere as well. This can make purchasing purchases more expensive and could destroy Netflix numbers,

But with the way it is moving ahead and the performance of the original Netflix Emmys, there is every reason to believe that the streaming giant will get by.

Bearing this in mind, the bulls were back in the ascendancy of Wall Street and the shares of Netflix jumped. This is partly due to the company's fourth quarter forecast of 9.4 million new additions.

This seems rather difficult and could be perceived as a reaction of Mr. Hastings to the estimation of the low ball of the third quarter. He will be banged again if he does not manage to hold on, even if he warns to bet too much on the internal forecasts. So is the stock.

So do yourself a favor and write this 100 times: I will not focus on the quarterly numbers. Then write it again. Wall Street will not do it, nor will the media, but if you do, you can earn some money by skipping the next time Mr. Hastings gets the egg on his face.

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