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The islands of New Caledonia and the French Pacific voted on Sunday to decide to become an independent nation, as part of a very attentive support test for France 's support for the country. one of its many territories scattered throughout the world.
Located some 18,000 kilometers from the French mainland, New Caledonia is home to a quarter of the world's known nickel reserves – an essential electronic component – and constitutes a strategic footing for France in the Pacific.
Some 175,000 people have the right to vote in isolated islands lined with spectacular beaches, opinion polls suggesting a large majority of people wishing to remain French.
But it is to be feared that the referendum will make tensions between the Kanak indigenous people, who tend to favor independence, and the white population, which resulted in deadly violence in the 1980s.
The quasi-civil war claimed the lives of more than 70 people. This led to the 1998 Noumea Accord, which paved the way for regular decentralization of powers as well as Sunday's referendum.
On Friday, separatist activists crisscrossed the Nouméa waterfront in convoy of some twenty cars, waving the Kanak flag to the screams of "Kanaky" – their name for New Caledonia.
The separatists urged Kanak voters to opt for self-determination, freeing the chains of "colonial" authorities in Paris.
However, indigenous peoples account for less than 50% of the electorate and some Kanaks remain in France, particularly because of the 1.3 billion euros (1.5 billion dollars) that the state French gives each year to the islands.
"I'm not sure we have all the assets to succeed," said Marc Gnipate, a 62-year-old retiree.
Polls suggest that 63 to 75 percent of voters will choose against breaking with France, which claimed the islands in 1853 and used them once as a penal colony.
Under the 1998 agreement, in case of "no", two more referendums on independence can still be organized before 2022.
– Balancing China in the Pacific? –
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to give a televised address Sunday after the results at 12:00 GMT (23:00, Nouméa time).
He largely stayed away from the countryside but said during a visit to Noumea in May that "France would be less beautiful without New Caledonia".
Macron also worried about China's growing influence in the Pacific, where Beijing invested heavily in Vanuatu, a separate territory from France and Britain in 1980.
Accusing that the United States has "turned its back on the region in recent months," Macron said China "was building its hegemony step by step" in the Pacific – suggesting that an independent New Caledonia could provide the next foot in Beijing.
Australia also raised concerns over China's activities in neighboring island states – which, according to estimates by the Lowy Institute think tank, would have received $ 1.78 billion in aid. Beijing between 2006 and 2006 – thus increasing its own spending.
While Australia remains officially neutral on New Caledonia's vote of independence, Denise Fisher, former consul general of Canberra in Noumea, said she appreciated the stability offered by the presence French France in the Pacific face the rise of China.
"Australia is fortunate to have a well-endowed Western ally, especially France, in the region, especially at a time marked by many geostrategic changes and the arrival of new actors. like China in the region, "she told ABC.
"There are some uncertainties that are emerging now."
With its 269,000 inhabitants, New Caledonia is one of the rare French island outposts, a legacy of the nineteenth century empire, which remains of strategic importance.
The referendum will test the attractiveness of the remaining part of France for such remote territories, which depend heavily on state aid but many feel neglected by Paris.
Both French Guyana in South America and the archipelago of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean have been shaken since last year by major demonstrations against the standard of living and apparent negligence.
In New Caledonia, there are fears that the vote will reveal tensions over blatant inequalities that persist despite the government's efforts to redress the economic balance in favor of the Kanaks.
"In Noumea, people earn a salary, but in the tribes, no one earns a salary or any kind of cash income," said veteran activist Elie Poigoune.
The Kanak community is falling prey to school dropouts, chronic unemployment and poor housing conditions.
Young offender gangs have become increasingly common in the streets and both sides fear violence between them if the "no" wins.
Polls suggest separatist activists will be disappointed by Sunday's referendum results
Native Kanaks represent less than half of the population of New Caledonia
New Caledonia, where a referendum on independence will be held on Sunday
New Caledonia is French since 1853
