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Looking at the division's standings in the first three weeks of the 2018 NFL season, perhaps the most surprising thing is at the top of the AFC East. Rather than the New England Patriots, you'll see the Miami Dolphins. New England is 1-2 after conceding consecutive Jaguars and Lions games, while the Dolphins are 3-0 after their consecutive victories against the Titans, Jets and Raiders.
New England started slowly before coming back to win the division. They have won the AFC East in 15 of the last 17 seasons, the only exceptions being 2002 and 2008. In 2008, however, it was the Dolphins who won the division title when Tom Brady was injured. This Miami team took the league completely by surprise with an innovative attack and one of the most important football defenses.
Do we look at a repeat of the same scenario 10 years later? Sunday's AFC East showdown (1pm, CBS) could provide some answers. Here's what to watch for when the Pats and Dolphins face each other.
When dolphins have the ball
Let's start here: Little of what the Dolphins seem offensive seems to be lasting, or even solely attributable to what their actual offense is doing. (Things look very cool schematically and they jump big games, but read on to see why there is not as much under the hood as you might think.)
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Miami ranks 23rd in yards and 31st in playoffs in 2018. The Dolphins rank seventh in yards per game, but are 28th in first practice, 28th in third and 25th in yards per unit. They shot only 32.4% of their impulses in points, 21st in the league. And despite all this, they have the 11th highest number of points in the NFL. What is happening on earth?
Well, they are one of 14 teams with a defensive touchdown or special teams, after getting a return score from Jakeem Grant at week 1. So that helps. Most importantly, they are enjoying the best field position in the league, starting their average on the 35.4 yard line – nearly three yards closer to the end zone than any other league team and over seven yards team. (Three yards might not seem like a lot, but that equals the difference between the team with the second best position on the field and the team in ninth.) It's not nothing.) The Rams enjoyed last season.
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Ryan Tannehill had seven touchdowns on just 74 pass attempts, a rate that far exceeds his career standards (throwing a touchdown on 9.5% of his passes would almost double his career-best hit rate), and the Dolphins have Also a 52-yard touchdown pass from Albert Wilson last Sunday. Thus, eight of their 75 passes have been scored. The probability that this continues seems to be extremely low. In addition, Tannehill's current 9.3-yard attempt is far ahead of his best career result of 7.7 yards per attempt, indicating that he is likely to experience some regression in this regard. Given the current target allocation of the offense – Grant leads the team with 14 targets although she played less than 40% of the shots on the offensive – it would not be surprising that the offense made a great not back quickly enough.
If and when this happens, Dolphins better hope their racing game improves. He must be almost better than last week against the Raiders, when Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore teamed up for 15 yards in eight races. It's not as if Drake, who had burst last season in the leadership role, had crushed him before, though; He averaged just 4.0 yards per race in the first two weeks of the season.
That said, the likelihood of the Miami offensive falling off a cliff this week, in particular, seems weak. The New England defense has been eliminated in the air and on the court this season, and this week the Patriots have placed one of the few reasonably qualified lineman defenders (linebacker Ja & Whaun Bentley) on Injured Reserve. . They struggled to create pressure (only the Raiders have less sacks than the four new New Englanders), the high school seems eminently easy to beat and the front has not been pushed enough (they grant 4 , 7 yards per race).
When the patriots have the ball
The Patriots had their worst start in years. New England has only 57 points in the first three weeks of the season, its fourth lowest total at this point of the season in the days of Tom Brady-Bill Belichick. (One of the next three seasons is 2008 when Brady tore his ACL on the opening day.) This total also represents a sharp drop from last year, as Patriots had 99 points in their first three games of the season.
The New England racing game, in particular, has struggled to get on track – and it should not stop soon. Jeremy Hill was lost for the season against a torn ACL during the first week, and Rex Burkhead was placed in the injured reserve with a neck injury earlier this week. Add to the fact that rookie Sony Michel still seems to be bothered by the knee injury that hit him during training camp and has been extremely inefficient so far – 24 runs for 84 yards – and that does not look good for the attack of the Patriots. James White is clearly the team's best option in the background at this point, but he is already close to a third of what would be a career record and he did not carry the ball than 13 times. (His 43 races last season were the most important of his career.) The Pats like to use short passes as an extension of the racing game and White does a great job on this front (he has already 14 catches for 125 yards and two scores); but the absence of pillars like Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola is definitely felt early in the year.
The difficulties of the game also do not seem to be the fault of the offensive line. According to Sports Info Solutions, online players at the Patriots' attack have only made three blockages this season and have committed only one possession penalty in the game. The line ranks ninth in the adjusted range of Football Outsiders, which credits the offensive line in the running game based on a percentage of yards earned per race. The Pats had only 9% of their points in the backfield, the third lowest in the league. Instead, the fault seems to be attributable to the backs, who did a lower than average job creating yards after first contact. (New England ranks 22nd in the league after touch yards.)
The problems of the racing game, however, are poorly compared with New England's difficulties in an area that should be familiar to anyone who has ever attempted to identify an offensive problem for the Patriots over the years: the exceeded. Brady struggled for a few years in the early 2010s to pitch the ball, but in recent seasons he had cleaned up the problem and became an excellent long-distance pitcher. This year has been a return to mediocre form. On throws of 15 yards or more, Brady has only 6 of the 18 yards for 139 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His 57.4 ranking on these shots ranks 31st among 34 quarterbacks who have attempted at least five passes at 15 yards or more.
The loss of the burner Brandin Cooks, who offered the Patriots offense his only element of deep speed last season, played a role, as did Brady's inability to establish a meaningful connection with Phillip Dorsett – the struggles that we saw last week against the Lions were particularly noteworthy. Perhaps more worrisome is his struggle to connect in real life with Chris Hogan, who has only seven assists for 84 yards in three games. Cordarrelle Patterson was a non-factor. The heavy training guys – Jacob Hollister, James Develin – had minimal impact. And Rob Gronkowski started off smoothly with just 13 passes for 186 yards and a score.
This is not the best news for the Pats they face off with a Miami pass defense that has been spectacular so far this season. Cornerback Xavien Howard, in particular, seems to be a guy at the start of the season. Howard has been featured in the cover 13 times this season by Sports Info Solutions, and his opponent's pass mark is 7.05 on those shots. (Yes, you read that right.) Brady usually bounces back after weak performances like the one he's had against the Lions, but he's in a particularly tough situation this week. That said, choosing against him and Belichick seems to be a particularly reckless idea. Whenever it looks like they are really skidding, they always manage to reverse the situation. And then, these guys are a ridiculous 14-1 against Miami at home in their time together.
Pick: Patriots 31, Dolphins 24
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