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For teams that meet only once every four years, the Patriots and Lions know each other very well during the Sunday night game. After all, Detroit head coach Matt Patricia has learned from New England head coach Bill Belichick as a defensive coordinator for the past six seasons.
This experience may give Patricia some lead over other coaches facing New England. But it certainly means that Belichick and Tom Brady have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Patricia. And no one adapts his game plan to his opponent better than the Patriots.
The Patriots have won seven of 11 all-time Lions games and won the last four in the series, all since Brady took the New England quarterback position. In fact, the last Lions victory on November 23, 2000 actually marked Brady's debut in the NFL. He went 1-on-3 for 6 yards in a 34-9 loss.
New England to Detroit
Start: Sunday, September 23 at 20:20 ET
TV: NBC
Propagate: Patriots -7
Three things to watch
1. How the Pats attack Patricia's defense
In New England, Patricia's defenses have generally yielded yards but no points. In a small sample of two games in Detroit, it's the opposite, as the Lions are ranked 31st, but 17th is allowed. They were also crushed by their opponents in the field to 179.5 yards per game, the worst in the NFL. Will the Patriots, who prefer Brady to throw the ball and average 3.5 yards per run, benefit? Or are they going to stick to what they do best and maybe put Brady in danger against a run to the pass that counts eight sacks, third in the NFL through two games? We'll see, but it will not help the Lions if cornerback Darius Slay can not play after leaving last week's game with a concussion.
2. What will Matthew Stafford be?
After throwing four interceptions against the Jets in the opening game of the season, the Detroit quarterback bounced back with a big game in San Francisco (34 of 53, 347 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT). Stafford has reduced interceptions over the past two seasons, so chances are that the opening match was only a difficult night and not a sign of things to come. But he has little experience with Belichick's defenses, having played only one game against New England in his career. It was not good, with 18 out of 46 for 264 yards and one interception in a 34-9 loss in 2014.
3. The beginnings of Josh Gordon in New England
Belichick and the Pats have long been trying to turn other teams' trash into treasure. Sometimes it works (Randy Moss, Corey Dillon) … sometimes (Kellen Winslow, Chad Johnson). The legendary (mythical?) Patriot Way can put Gordon back on track? Since he led the NFL with 1,646 yards (in just 14 games) in 2013, Gordon has played only 11 games due to substance abuse issues. When he showed up late for work last week, complaining of a hamstring injury, the Browns had had enough and traded it to New England for a fifth round choice. Now he is supposed to be healthy and ready to go. It could be a great weapon for Brady, but he's five years old to be a reliable target. Time will tell us.
Final analysis
There is more pressure on Lions to avoid a 0-3 start than on the Patriots; Even getting out of the 1-2 gate would hardly hurt his playoff chances in the weak AFC. But it's still hard to bet on New England to lose two in a row, especially if the Detroit high school is shorthanded without Darius Slay.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Lions 17
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