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This happens too often every summer: a new litany of weekend shootings in Chicago appears in the news.
A new study from Arizona State University and Purdue University examines this phenomenon. The authors reviewed data on nearly 6 million crimes reported in Chicago between 2001 and 2014 to identify factors that could promote or suppress various types of crime.
"The results were interesting," said Sherry Towers, a research professor at the Simon A. Levin Center for Mathematical, Computer and Modeling Science at the ASU School of Mathematical Sciences and Statistical Sciences. "We found that most types of crime in Chicago had very different characteristics depending on the time of year, the time, the days of the week and even the holidays.
The research team, consisting of Siqiao Chen, Abish Malik and David Ebert of the VACCINE Center of Excellence of VACCINE Department of Purdue University, published their findings in the latest online issue of PLOS ONE.
Weekend crime
In terms of assault and aggravated assault, the pattern of days of the week was particularly pronounced, with a significant peak on Friday and Saturday. Friday pay days were also correlated with higher battery and assault rates.
"People often spend the weekends and interact with a wider variety of people than they usually do on a weekday," said Towers. "Significantly, especially on Friday and Saturday nights, alcohol is likely to be involved and this can increase aggression."
The authors found a heavy reliance on temperature aggression, where higher temperatures than usual – particularly in June and July – were associated with a sharp rise in these crimes.
"The confluence of hot summer days and weekends is therefore a perfect storm that brings a series of shootings," said Towers. Conversely, the authors found that rainy and windy days tended to suppress crime. "People just do not want to go out in bad weather."
The authors are experts in the field of "predictive analysis" for the maintenance of order.
"If you can tell police where and when to focus their resources, it will allow them to have more effective information and reduce crime," said Ebert. "There are natural time patterns for human activity, but they vary at the neighborhood level. It is therefore important to select them and provide the agents with this information. We just do not want to put the cops on points, but put the right officers in the right place and at the right time to monitor certain activities. "
The authors note that while Chicago shootings dominate the news, Chicago's rate of shootings per capita is actually lower than in many other US cities.
"Chicago is not even in the top five," said Towers. "Cities like St. Louis, Baltimore and New Orleans have much higher rates. But Chicago has a much larger population, which means that even though its rates are lower than those of other cities, their numbers are higher, and it is this number that attracts people's attention. In addition, models based on weather and time of day are important in all communities, even small towns. "
The authors also found that holiday effects were important for many types of crime. Aggressive crime drops dramatically at Christmas and Thanksgiving, for example. "Even criminals spend time with their families," Towers said.
The authors' study "Factors Influencing the Temporal Patterns of Crime in a Major American City; a predictive analysis perspective ", appears in the newspaper PLOS ONE.
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