Next Generation Statistics: Fantastic Week 7 Football Games

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Now in its third season, next-generation statistics have exploded rapidly. Statistics appear in game shows, they are run in countless articles, tweets and podcasts throughout the week, and the Next Gen Stats database is free to access.

In this weekly column, we will immerse ourselves in the statistics of Next Gen Stats and explore the matches between players and teams. The goal is simple: Next Gen provides truly unique analytical data that we can use to uncover boundaries when making decisions about fantasy composition. More importantly, Next Gen Stats' data vaults make us more informed viewers of the game.

Let's cut the slate of week 7 through next-generation statistics optics.

Titans at Chargers (9:30 ET); in London

Key Match: Philip Rivers' best start in career against Titans goes up and down

Philip Rivers is undoubtedly the best start of his long underrated career. The Chargers are (finally) legitimate contenders for the AFC this season – largely thanks to Rivers' stellar play. According to next-generation statistics, Rivers is the only NFL QB to have more than 100 passers-by under pressure, in narrow windows (less than a meter away), during fast throws (under 2.5 seconds) and during deep passes. (20+ yards downfield):

After an effective run against the Browns (207 yards, 2 touchdowns for only 20 attempts), Philip Rivers and Co. travel to London to face an uneven secondary Titans. While Adoree Jackson plays in his mind (57.2 for smugglers), Malcolm Butler is systematically hit. Butler gave another TD last week to Michael Crabtree. Over the entire campaign, Butler allowed a completion rate of 13% higher than expectations (eighth worst), a score of 132.1 (11th worst) and 11.2 yards per target (12th worst) ). Look for rivers to relentlessly target Butler's coverage in week 7.

Patriots at Bears (1 pm ET)

Main Match: Bears Front Seven vs. Sony Michel

Even though they did not show up on the road in Miami during the sixth week, the Chicago seventh is obviously mean. The Bears rank third in bag referral (9.0%), despite the lowest level of blitz in the league, according to next-generation statistics (19.6, the highest rate ever). low). Chicago is also doing a fantastic job of limiting big heats, as only 7% of rushes against them have gained 10 yards or more. This is the best clip of the NFL. The Bears do not have a single standout defenseman, though. They are just doing a great job limiting the big games. Overall, only 13.1% of points against their brave front have been stuffed for zero gain (or loss), according to next-generation statistics. It's the second lowest in the NFL.

However, this week is the Bears' toughest test to date. Sony Michel has accumulated more than 80 rushing yards in three straight games and is currently eighth in terms of success rate among all RB with 15 or more passes in this period. Chicago needs to find a way to fill the gaps when the Pats deploy the Bears. Because, according to the statistics of the new generation, Sony Michel is third in YPC (7.5), third in gains of more than 23 yards (23.8%) and second in success rate (72%) in front of a light box (six defenders or less). According to next generation data, the Bears only allowed 4.0 YPC and a 50% success rate when they only have six defenders in the area (the NFL average is 5.0 YPC a success rate of 52%).

Invoices for Colts (1 pm ET)

Key Match: Andrew Luck vs. Air Yards

Finally, Andrew Luck seems to be almost perfectly healthy. Slowly but surely, each week, Luck's aerial pass attempts have increased. Keep in mind, T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) has not played a full match since the 3rd week:

Now, Luck is facing a tricky Bills secondary that allows the sixth-smallest number of air yards per attempt (7.11), the seventh-worst fancy-fold, and the ninth-worst passer (82.1). The completion rate of 2.4% below Buffalo's expectations is the 13th best. T.Y. Hilton is trying to come back this week, but whatever her health, it's great to be lucky to get back to normal.

Texans at Jaguars (1 pm ET)

Main Match: J.J. Watt Returns to Form Against Jags Offensive Line

In good health after scary leg and back injuries in years that threatened to derail his career, J.J. Watt has returned to his previous form completely.

Of all the defensemen with 100 clear shots on the season, Watt is the second in completed innings (9), the fifth in QB (23), and he is tied for the league lead in the sacks (7) – by Next Gen Stats. In addition, Watt has recorded several hits in QB in 4 games out of 6 and now has a dream match in week 7. When Watt is on the right side, he will face the replacement of the Jags for Cam Robinson (ACL). at the left tackle. Over the past two weeks, Jags' LT Josh Walker has led to the most fast-paced games in the league (PFF). Warning.

Lions in dolphins (1 pm ET)

Key Match: Kerryon Johnson's Discussion Week?

It could finally be the week we all waited for. Theo Riddick (knee) is injured and does not take advantage of the Lions leave, perhaps giving Kerryon Johnson the photos and opportunities he needs finally have a deserved monster game.

During the year, the Dolphins dropped the sixth-highest number of yards in the first leg (166.8), mainly because of the poor coverage of their linebackers. Only the Falcons (8.8) and Chiefs (7.7) allow more receptions per match than the Fins (7.2). According to next-generation statistics, Miami allows a pass mark of 106.9 for receivers out of the backfield (sixth at worst). If Riddick actually misses Week 7, his absence would open 20 roads and 6 targets per game in the Lions offensive. This is an extremely valuable role for Johnson.

On the field, Johnson will face a difficult task against a seventh in Miami, who makes only 19 or 19% of his innings at the end of the scrum (18th out of 32). Dolphins rarely pile up too, hitting at least eight defensemen in 18.6% of the games played (11th lower). It is likely that Miami will not be able to stack a team often against a Detroit team that handles 60% of the time with 11 people (3RM), according to next-generation statistics. If Riddick misses the goal, it will become a huge attraction for Johnson … until LeGarrette Blount wins two defeats of the goal line.

Vikings at Jets (1 pm ET)

Key Match: Continuation of Adam Thielen's Nuclear Rhythm

Once again, Adam Thielen is in an explosive zone. As we mentioned in this space last week, Thielen avoids more difficult confrontations on the outside as he runs half of his routes from the slot, according to next generation statistics. As a result, Thielen attacked the Cards (11/123/1) because he had mainly avoided coverage of Patrick Peterson's lockdown limits.

The next victim of the burns is Parry Nickerson, the man covering the Jets slot machines. New York is allowing third-most yards per game (133.2) for opposing slot machine play, according to next-generation data. Hold on. It gets worse (for the Jets). Nickerson (128.9) is the 15th worst passer and has 4.8% of his catch on the press cover, the seventh lowest. Adam Thielen is about to go wild in the slot against the free and fleeing slot scheme of the Jets.

Panthers at Eagles (1 pm ET)

Key Match: Carson Wentz's less aggressive approach against the Panthers

Carson Wentz is back to the ball.

Over the last three weeks, Wentz has collected 275 yards and / or scores in each game, while his pass rate of 3.9% above expectations in this period is fourth (next generation stats) . Wentz's 110.8 smuggler rating (fourth in the standings) in this heat-up series stems largely from the Eagles' less aggressive aerial approach:

Wentz's rushing yards dropped 2.2 yards a year, creating more effective shots in the Eagles' offense. This is largely why Wentz's percentage of completion has increased by 8.2% over the previous year, in 2018. This week, the Eagles face a sneaky draw against the Panthers team, which limits production in the short and intermediate areas. Carolina had the eighth lowest pass score (87.8), the ninth lowest success rate (54%) and allowed the second lowest yard after the catch (3.5). ) on such throws. The white pass attack of Wentz and Philadelphia must be accurate to beat the Panthers' side.

Browns at Buccaneers (1 pm ET)

Key Pairing: The Right Place for Jarvis Landry

This could be the most obvious wheel, a perfect match of the season. How bad do you think Bucs' high school has been this year? Horrible stone, no? They were worse than that. Much worse.

Tampa is the last in the passer (123.9), the last in YPA (9.2), the last in success rate (56%), the last in TD pass rate (8.1%) and the last in fantasy points allowed by release (0.66). In addition, there are no more teams per game for opposing players than Tampa Bay (172.8), while home defender, Mr. J. Stewart, continues to struggle. Of the 113 cornerbacks qualified, Stewart scored 142.7 as the closest defender to a receiver. It's the fourth worst of the NFL. Landry manages 60% of its transit routes from the slot, according to next-generation statistics.

The last three weeks have been quiet for Landry (receiving 4/34/1, 5/69, 2/11), but he still holds 23% of the team's goals and 18% of the aerodromes. Both figures are second on Cleveland. In addition, eight of Baker Mayfield's 19 pass attempts in the red zone were also won by Landry. In fantasy, we continue the opportunity compared to recent production. All in Landry.

Saints at Ravens (16:05 ET)

Main Match: Drew Brees vs. Ravens Blitz

Drew Brees and Co. underwent its toughest test to date in Week 7 on the road to Baltimore. The Ravens have the most underrated NFL defense and can defeat enemy air attacks from multiple angles. This year, Baltimore tops the NFL bag standings (10.8%), keep opponent QBs at a 12.0% success rate below expectations (the best) and give a rating of 65.4 for smugglers.

The Ravens have an incredibly aggressive pattern that uses at least five defensive backs on the field almost 80% of the time. Despite all their speed on the field, the Ravens are fighting in third place in the league (35%). When the Ravens send at least five rushers, they go home for the second best league bag, with a whopping 20%. The Baltimore 55.5 rating, sanctioned in the blitz, is the third best behind L.A. Chargers and Tennessee.

Now we have a classic force in the battle of strength. Drew Brees is an elite player in a lot of categories, but he must absolutely reduce his opponents against the blitz this season. I'm looking forward to seeing what Brees and Sean Payton have put together against one of the best defenders in the league:


Rams at 49ers (4:25 pm ET)

Combination of keys: What is the key to the precipitation offense of Rams?

Nobody can slow down Todd Gurley.

After his incredible 2017 season in which he finished with 25.8 PPR fantasy points per game (12th best of all time), Gurley rewrote the history books this season. He averages a monster at 29.0 FPG while his weekly finals on his last 10 regular season games are so good that they look almost fake:

Now, Gurley is facing a defense against the Niners that played pretty well. San Francisco charges the box with the second highest number of defenders per race (7.15), giving 3.96 YPCs allowed (tenth best). Unfortunately for San Francisco, Los Angeles will not allow the 49ers to defend their normal defense during the seventh week. The Niners send eight or more defenders in fourth place (30.2%), but the Rams are widely spaced. and the constant-motion offensive opens the gaping path for Gurley.

Head coach Sean McVay has done an outstanding job in preparing for L.A.'s attack. Gurley's 129 teams have come out of 11 men (3WD) this season, naturally creating a space within the defensive gaps. As a result, 47% of Gurley's attempts are against six or fewer defenders (the lowest rate in the league):

San Francisco is well against the race when they get into their normal pattern, but they are hit for 6.3 YPC when they have six or fewer defensemen in the box, by Next Gen Stats. It's the fifth worst of the NFL. In fact, 27.3% of the points against San Francisco have gained 10 yards or more when they have six or fewer defensemen in the box (worst in the NFL). Ouch.

Cowboys at Redskins (4:25 pm ET)

Key pairing: Dak Prescott and pressure

This has been a common theme in this space all year, but Dak Prescott really fights against the pressure. This is largely because its recipients can not separate. According to next-generation statistics, Cowboy receivers are only 2.4 meters away at the target point when Prescott is under duress – the NFL's second worst number. Only receivers of Sam Darnold (2.2 meters away) are less likely to open when there is pressure.

As a result, Prescott is 29th (out of 34) in terms of completion rate, 29th in YPA and 27th as a passer when he is under pressure this season, according to next-generation statistics. This will be a problem at week 7. The Redskins put pressure on the opposing quarter on 31.9% of the returns (the fourth highest rate in the NFL) and scored 51.5 for the smugglers when the opposite quarter is under pressure (average 58.0). Prescott should take out the ball quickly this week as he can not afford to hold the rock at his usual staple (3.03 seconds, third fastest time to start).

Bengals at Chiefs (8:20 pm ET); Sunday evening football

Key Match: How will the Bengals choose to cover Tyreek Hill?

The main concern of the Bengals this week must be Tyreek Hill. Head coach Andy Reid did a great job using Hill's unique skills: he lined it up 55 times out of 5, allowing him to play 38% of his shots and separate him in the backfield or tight at a 6 percent clip. This Next Gen Stats heat map shows Hill's various alignments:

I do not know how the Bengals will try to cover Hill.

Staying home, William Jackson, plays in the press coverage 55% of the time (eighth highest rate), which … does not work against Hill. The left corner, Dr. Kirkpatrick, has been more effective than Jackson this season, but he also insists quite often (44%, 22nd out of 103). This season, Hill has only been covered by nine of his 51 targets. When the defenses are stupid enough to press Hill, he roasted them for 6/171/2. In addition, when Hill enters the slot, he will face Tony Mcrae, who will replace injured Darqueze Dennard (shoulder). Mcrae played 70 shots in his career. Good luck, Bengals!

Giants at Falcons (8:15 pm ET); Monday night football

Main Match: Saquon Barkley. That's all.

There is not a better individual match against Saquon Barkley than the Atlanta Falcons. Opposing offensives are aiming for their semi-final 11-0 times per game against Atlanta, by far the most in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, no team allows more receptions per opponent than the Falcons. The (missing) coverage of Atlanta is definitely not a secret. It's been a problem for three years, as the Falcons' defense has led the NFL in number of allowed receptions per game at the RB from 2016 to 18.

According to next-generation statistics, recipients who line up in the background capture 80.4% of their passes against the unfortunate coverage of the Falcons (third highest rate). Saquon currently ranks second behind Alvin Kamara in number of goals per game (8.5) while Atlanta has spat 14/102 (Christian McCaffrey), 15/124 (Kamara), 6/55 (Bengals RB) , 4/75 (James Conner) and 7/40 (Bucs RBs) weeks 2 to 6. Just for fun, the all-time record of receiving a single-half yard game by a half-defender was set by Marshall Faulk in 1999 (reception of 12/204/1). Quarterback midfielder Eli Manning will spice Barkley with goals against the Falcons' defense.

– Graham Barfield is the editor of fantasy football content for NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter @ GrahamBarfield.

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