Next Generation Statistics: Fantastic Week 8 Football Games

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Now in its third season, next-generation statistics have exploded rapidly. Statistics appear in game shows, they are run in countless articles, tweets and podcasts throughout the week, and the Next Gen Stats database is free to access.

In this weekly column, we will immerse ourselves in the statistics of Next Gen Stats and explore the matches between players and teams. The goal is simple: Next Gen provides truly unique analytical data that we can use to uncover boundaries when making decisions about fantasy composition. More importantly, Next Gen Stats' data vaults make us more informed viewers of the game.

Let's break down the slate of the 8th week through the Next Generation Statistical optics.

Eagles at Jaguars (9:30 am ET); in London

Key Match: Who has the advantage in the battle of 3-4 playoff teams?

Week 8 is a pivotal week for the Eagles and Jaguars. Both teams won their division in 2017, both teams are now at 3-4 and both teams rank 11th in their playoff race. Nobody could have considered either team in this disappointing scenario.

Obviously, the key to this game will be if the Jags' attack can come off the rug after three abominable performances by Blake Bortles. Unless Jacksonville can muster a semblance of transient offense, no matter how much Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon can "hammer" the ball to the ground. In the past three weeks, Bortles' 7.7 percent completion rate, below expectations, is the fifth worst of next-generation statistics statistics. Facing the pressure of the opposing pass, Bortles posted a score of 14 out of 36 (39%) for 5.0 yards per attempt and a ratio of 0: 3 TD / INT. His 20.5-year-old under-duress ranking is the NFL's second worst performance over the past three weeks, among the skilled passers-by.

This is the worst stone week for Jacksonville and one of the best players in the division.

According to next generation statistics, the Eagles exert pressure 31% of the time on snapshots (highest rate in the NFL). Meanwhile, the Eagles go on 30% of pass attempts, either behind the line of scrimmage or the second best rate in the NFL. The loss of Derek Barnett for the season (shoulder) hurts, but make no mistake: the seventh of Philly is still vicious. Jags are in trouble.

Ravens to the Panthers (1 pm ET)

Key pairing: Can Cam Newton still beat Ravens in high school?

One of the main reasons Cam Newton currently has his best season in finishes (65.6%) and his bagging rate (4.6%) is due to the fact that the Panthers' aerial attack is finally condensed. The time when Cam had been asked to sweep the rock deep into the big, bulky receivers is over. Seriously, though – Newton's deep ball attempt rate is well below that of the 2016 season (15%) and last year's (10.4%):

Shorter passes pay off in Carolina. According to next-generation statistics, Newton has a pass rating of 105.6 for passes traveling less than 10 yards (4th in the NFL). In fact, Newton finishes 76% of his throws that run less than ten meters in the air (ninth best).

Unfortunately for Cam – and the Panthers' passing offensive this week – the Ravens are blocking air attacks at all depths of the field. Baltimore is the NFL's fifth-best passer (77.2%) for throws that fly less than 10 yards in the air and fifth for passes that run between 10 and 19 yards in the air (76.3 smugglers). Christian McCaffrey has not yet finished worse than the PPR RB22 in any game this season, but it's hard to be confident in another Panther against that Ravens defense that only allows 22.2 yards per disc, the lowest in the NFL standings.

Jets at Bears (1 pm ET)

Key Matchup: Can Trubisky beat the blitz?

In his last three games, the second-year caller of the Bears has accumulated the weeks QB1, QB5 and QB2 in the fantastic. During that time, Trubisky racked up 315 yards per game and accumulated 3/53, 8/47 and 6/81/1 days of ground running. Trubisky is on fire for fantasy … but there is some dissonance between his figures and the actual game. This week, Trubisky will have to understand the Jets' heavy blitz pattern. According to next generation statistics, Todd Bowles' defense sends at least five assists in 34% of the cases, the fourth highest rate behind Arizona (43%), Baltimore (38%) and Cleveland ( 35%).

Trubisky has not been as bright as the blitz this season: it has the seventh lowest NFL completion rate (-7.3%) and the fifth worst YPA pass (6.1 ). Trubisky makes an excellent QB1 game for the 8th week because of his second reaction scrambling ability, but his overtaking floor is lowered against aggressive jets. Seek out innovative head coach Matt Nagy for quick strikes against Tarik Cohen to control the Jets attack.

The buccaneers in Bengals (13h ET)

Key Matchup: Which version of Andy Dalton will we see?

While the catastrophe of the 7th week of Andy Dalton in Kansas City still worries all minds (15 of 29, 148 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), the Bengals need a draw for to prepare again. They will get it this week. Tampa has been a turnstile in pass production this season, allowing YPG to have the highest number of passes, the highest number of fantasy points, the highest TD success rate, and the highest rate of smugglers. the league.

Not only the cornerback of the Bucs is in trouble, but his seventh forward does not generate pressure either. He created a recipe for disaster for Tampa and a fantastic choice for us. According to next-generation statistics, Tampa has put pressure on only 23% of the season's setbacks (the lowest rate). In the Bengals with four wins this season, Dalton shredded the seconds by facing pressure (111.8 smugglers) while he was battling heat in the three Cincy defeats (13.5 smugglers). Dalton will see many empty pockets in the eighth week. Hope we get Good Andy.

Seahawks at Lions (1 pm ET)

Key Matchup: What difference does Damon "Snacks" Harrison make to Detroit?

At the dawn of the eighth week, the Lions unquestionably have one of the worst anti-assault defenses of the NFL. They allowed a gigantic 6.02 YPC to fight back this season, by far the worst clip of the NFL. According to next generation statistics, Lions allow 4.5 yards after a defender closes in a worse time (over 51%), more than 51% of the points against seven are successful (ninth ) and they score points at the end or behind the line. melee only 17.8 percent of the time (11th worst).

However, the indigent home defense of Detroit is about to receive a huge boost. This week, the Lions transferred a fifth-round pick to the Tanker Giants in exchange for the league's best defenseman. According to next-generation statistics, Harrison is one of the best online players since the beginning of 2016:

Harrison has been training with the Lions on Thursday this week, perhaps putting him on the right track for his Detroit debut against Seattle. We will see. Whether it's ready this week or next week, one thing is clear: the Detroit Rally Defense is about to improve exponentially.

Broncos at Chiefs (1 pm ET)

Key Matchup: Breaking the potential point of Philip Lindsay

While Royce Freeman (sprained ankle) is probably away for the eighth week, rookie Philip Lindsay is in an almost perfect situation this week against the Chiefs. While Kansas City High School has played significantly better in the past month – it has maintained the passer rating at 68.3 (the second best of that period) – it is routinely crushed by receivers.

This year, the Chiefs have allocated 7.0 receptions (second place) and 73.0 yards (most) per game to the half-enemies. According to next generation statistics, 18.3% of total pass production allowed in Kansas City this season went to receivers out of the backcourt (tied with Atlanta for the ninth record). Given that Freeman is likely to miss Week 8, Lindsay is expected to handle most of Denver's tasks. Before getting injured in the ankle during the 7th week, Freeman had made 10.0 routes on average and a rate of 35% per match. The expected increase in Lindsay's playing time should allow more targets for the shifted satellite to come back, which drives all Broncos to the target rate per route (29%).

Red skins among giants (13h ET)

Key Matchup: Is this the week in which Eli passes? Narrator: "Probably not."

No team puts pressure on the quarterback more often than Washington (34.4%). Meanwhile, no quarterback turns into a turtle against the pressure faster than Eli Manning. Seriously, when Manning is under pressure, he has bagged 28.8% of the time, making it the ninth highest rate in the NFL. The Giants offensive line does not do any good at Manning (8.4% adjusted bag rate, ninth at worst). But, to be fair, Manning rarely stays in the pocket and throws under duress. According to next generation statistics, Manning gets rid of the ball in 2.88 seconds (the seventh fastest) and averages only 5.9 total yards per attempt (the seventh least) under pressure. Manning's lack of aggression is particularly evident during the third try, as he throws an average of 2.2 yards off the sticks (the worst of the NFL). With limited pocket mobility, Manning turns into a duck sitting against the violent players in the front. Washington has one. Be careful.

Browns at Steelers (1 pm ET)

Key Matchup: It's the week of Jarvis Landry. Again.

Like last week, Jarvis Landry finds himself in a ruthless confrontation. After ridding the poor-quality Bucs 10/97/1 slot machine coverage, he has to face the Steelers' team, who gave the opposing machine passerers 141.5 yards per game. It's second only behind … Tampa Bay. In fact, 46.2% of the total allowed Steelers production went to slot machine receivers (highest clip in the NFL).

Since Baker Mayfield took over the Browns, Landry has led the team in target goal share (27%), aerial yards (30%) and red targets (8). He saw double-digit targets in each game (45 in total) and made 60% of his routes from the slot. Landry is about to eat again.

Colts at Raiders (4 pm ET)

Key Match: Andrew Luck vs. Raiders Tankers

Who does not like a good fire sale?

The Raiders are clearly Play for 2019 (and beyond), giving Andrew Luck and the Colts smugglers a spot on the road to stay in search of the AFC South title. Over the past month, Andrew Luck has finally examined his health status or almost, since he has recorded 15 pass marks and averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt. In the first three games of the season, Luck's 5.6-yard air shots ranked third in the NFL's lowest points.

Without Khalil Mack and behind a failed secondary that put their two most talented halfbacks on the bench (Gareon Conley and Rashaan Melvin), it's not surprising that Oakland ranks third in the standings (102.8 ) and last in terms of forced pressure rate (15.8%). ). In their last four games, the Raiders have allowed a pass gain of 20 yards or more on 15% of their attempts (the lowest rate in the NFL). With T.Y. Hilton found her maximum speed after being blocked for two weeks by a hamstring. The Colts air attack was launched in the 8th week.

49ers at Cardinals (4:25 pm ET)

Key Match: Will Byron Leftwich, the new offensive coordinator, save David Johnson's season?

The Cardinals have not played for more than a week, but they will have a new identity in the eighth week against the Niners. The new offensive Byron Leftwich takes over for Mike McCoy, promising to (insert)mimic the use of David Johnson by former head coach Bruce Arians. We will see. In 2017, Arians hired Leftwich and enthusiastically congratulated him when the opportunity was given to him.

Whatever it is, the use of Johnson can not be worse. As we have noted in this space all year round, Johnson performs only three per cent of its splits as receiver (or in the slot), a significant drop from its 2016 season under Arians (20). % of links in the slot or off). In addition, former offensive coordinator Mike McCoy used Johnson as a "hammer" on the back – instead of the dynamic weapon that he Actually is:

Throughout the season, the Cards' defense allowed a gain of more than 10 yards or more in seventh place, although the unit sent eight or more defensemen in the area at the second-highest rate. high of the league. In addition, no team allows more fancy points per target to compete than the Arios. The fantastic owners of David Johnson have new hope.

The Packers at Rams (4:25 pm ET)

Main match: Robert Woods draw

Robert Woods has quickly become a fantastic breeder this season, totaling at least 5 catches and over 78 yards in six straight games. Woods is at the top of the target rankings (26%) while his 653 airfields have a better performance than the speed demon Brandin Cooks (579).

Without Cooper Kupp (knee) last week, Robert Woods was the main receiver of Rams slot machines, performing 62% of his connections from the inside. This is a considerable jump from its average of the entire season (slot rate of 30%, according to next-generation statistics). Now, Woods is facing a Green Bay high school that has done a decent job of slowing down the receivers, but is still playing slot machines. By next generation, the Packers give 97.3 yards per game to the domestic receivers (tenths), while 42% of the total allowed passes went through the slot (fourth highest rate). Kupp is "dubious" to play for the 8th week, allowing Woods to remain Rams slots player for another match. Load.

Saints at Vikings (8:20 pm ET); Sunday evening football

Key Matchup: Will the saints use long games to exploit the Vikings?

The defense of the Viking passes has been very hectic to start the season, it is the least that can be said. This year, Minnesota allowed Jared Goff to play perfectly and had a 68% success rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 111.2 score for Josh Allen in Week 3. These are all easy season highs for Allen.

Of course, the Vikings also just demolished rookie Sam Darnold on the road in Week 7, forcing three interceptions, three sacks and two fumbles (one lost). So, what is behind their inconsistency?

Well, one factor might be Minnesota's lack of discipline in coverage when the quarterback holds the ball for an extended period. Next-generation statistics data show that the Vikings lost a whopping 10.5 yards per attempt and 116.1 yards when they allowed the other side more than 2.5 seconds to throw:

You do not need the incredible data from Next Gen to tell you that Drew Brees is amazing no matter how long he has the ball in his pocket. However, the Vikes' inability to maintain their coverage could cause trouble if the Saints decided to call off the developing passing games longer. While Xavier Rhodes still plays near a world level (5.5 yards per target; 69.1 smuggler allowed to play when he is the closest defender), the opposite corner of the border, Trae Waynes, is working in coverage (8.9 yards per target, 96.8 passers allowed). Michael Thomas will receive a well-deserved background treatment from Rhodes this week, but Rhodes has an ankle injury and was burned for the playoff season by 7/85/2 when the two teams met. The way the saints try to defeat the unstable Vikings' defense is a perfect scenario in prime time.

Patriots at Bills (8:15 pm ET); Monday night football

Key Match: The Impact of Josh Gordon

It's official: Josh Gordon is back. Gordon may never return to his 2013 form (6.2 receptions, 117.6 yards per game), but he played a pivotal role in the recent offensive turnaround by the Pats. In the last month, Gordon has become an important part of the New England attack:

Not surprisingly, Gordon's presence allowed the Patriots to employ a much more diverse attack. In weeks 1 to 3 (without Gordon), the Patriots used 11 people (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) just 35.6% of the time (the lowest rate in the NFL), according to statistics from the next generation. In the last month, New England used 11 people in 57% of cases. Over this period, the Pats are averaging the fourth total yards per game and posting the league's best pass rate when they are in "11":

This week, Josh Gordon will likely focus on the Bills' best corner, Tre & # 39; Davious White. Among the qualified corner players, White is ranked among the top 25 yards per target when he is the closest defender (according to next generation stats). White also plays press coverage on 56% of his shots, the eighth highest rate in the league. Prepare your popcorn.

– Graham Barfield is editor-in-chief of fantastic football content at NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter @ GrahamBarfield.

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