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Now in its third season, Next Gen Stats has exploded quickly. The statistics are featured in game releases, they are used in countless articles, tweets and podcasts throughout the week, and the Next Gen Stats database is free to access.
In this weekly column, we'll look in detail at Next Gen stats and explore player-team encounters. The goal is simple: Next Gen provides truly unique analytical data that we can use to uncover boundaries when making fantasy programming decisions. More importantly, the deep data vaults of Next Gen Stats make us more informed viewers of the game.
Let's take a look at the slate of Week 4 through the lens of Next Gen Stats.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Gio Bernard vs. Falcons LB Corps
For the third week in a row, the Falcons' defense faces a return of shivers. During Week 2, Atlanta was crushed for 14/102 by Christian McCaffrey. Alvin Kamara then lost 15/124 on 20 targets last week. Per Next Gen, the Falcons defense has already allowed 29 receptions to receivers out of the backfield – by far the most in the NFL. Buffalo is the next closest team (25). Over the last two years, Gio Bernard has averaged 7.3 targets per game when Joe Mixon is out (or plays less than 10% of shots). Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara both averaged 7.3 targets per game, most of the BRs of that period. Bernard will engulf the catch of the week 4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: FitzMagic vs. Bears' Stout Defense
You can only hope to slow down the beard, the airfield breaker and the first named: Ryan FitzMagic.
Seriously, though, Fitzpatrick's departure is unprecedented. Since the 1970 merger, only Tom Brady (1,327 yards in 2011) has thrown more passing yards in weeks 1-3 of the season than Fitzpatrick this year (1,230). It's just amazing. Subsequently, Fitzpatrick (10.7) was third behind Deshaun Watson (12.1) and Patrick Mahomes (11.6) in the yards per attempt. The expected completion percentage of Fitzpatrick, based on the difficulty of his throws, is 63.2%. In fact, Fitzpatrick made 70.3% of his attempts, the league's second best differential.
Fitzpatrick and the Bucs intend to ship the ball relentlessly, and are now facing their toughest challenge of Week 4. Chicago leads the NFL in the sacks (14) despite a bombardment of 18, 6%.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Lions vs. Sean Lee-less Defense
When Sean Lee misses the time, the Cowboys' defense will collapse. Last year, the Cowboys were out for five games, which had a cataclysmic effect on the Dallas defense. Without Lee in the lineup in 2017, Dallas gave the NFL the highest score (105.1). When Lee played, the Cowboys defense was close to the league average (82.1, 15th of 32 by Stats).
What's more, according to The Quantitative Edge, the Cowboys allowed 4.8 yards per carry (most) and a 47.8% pass rate (fifth at worst) when Lee did not play last season . After defeating the Patriots 26-10 in the third week, the Lions rely on Lee's absence in this crucial Week 4 game between two 1-2 teams.
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (1 pm ET)
Key Correspondence: Bill Presses Against Aaron Rodgers
Perhaps the biggest key to any showdown this week will be the Bills' heavy front against Aaron Rodgers (knee). In three games, the Bills led all teams at a 34.4 percent pressure rate while Rodgers's 5.2 assists per coed attempt was eighth:
However, Rodgers still seems to be coming down when he is under pressure while 18 of his 24 attempts (75%) under pressure went to separate receivers or to the slot. Buffalo may start the Packers by harassing Rodgers in the backfield, but that should not delay Davante Adams' target charge (8, 12, and 9 assists in weeks 1-3).
Houston Texans at the Colts of Indianapolis (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Will Andrew finally air him?
At least for football, it's time to panick about Andrew Luck. In three games, no quarter has a lower average casting depth than 5.5 yards. T.Y. The average number of Hilton's aerial yards per target this year with Luck back in the center. More worryingly, luck was not effective enough to justify his departure in fantasy. His 5.3 yards per attempt are significantly worse than Joe Flacco's last season (5.7). Luck was forced to throw the rock 53 times in Week 1, leading to a weekly QB11 finish, but he finished in front of the Fantastic Twenty-Four in two weeks 2 and 3.
Now, Luck and Co. have to face the Texans in the division – who have imposed a tight period to 23.6% of attempts this season, the best NFL rate by Next Gen Stats. Houston is also doing extremely frequent shelling, sending five or more passing players on a 34.4% pass (fourth highest rate). This is a potential disaster scenario. The 72.1 pass to the blitz is the fifth worst in the NFL.
Jets from New York to Jaguars Jacksonville (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Sam Darnold against his first elite defense
After laying an egg in Week 3 against the Titans, the Jags are in prime position to win a home win against the youngest QB of Week 4. This season, Jacksonville holds the fifth highest percentage difference in the season. completion (percentage of actual completion) less expected), they forced pressure on 29.7% of pass delays (11th best) and allowed a TD on only 2.1% of pass attempts ( third best). After a strong start to the first week against Detroit, Darnold dropped again to weeks 2 and 3 (passing score of 59.0, the worst in the NFL span). Good luck, rookie!
Miami Dolphins at the New England Patriots (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Will the Pats run be played?
It's odd to see the Pats offensive struggling in so many categories. At the moment, New England is 26th in attack, 20th in rushing attack and third in its latest success. After finishing sixth in the first two consecutive heats, the Pats are only 17th this season. In addition, Brady and Co. were fifth and sixth, respectively, in 2016-17. Now, New England is one of five teams that have no points to start this season.
Back at home against the Dolphins, Sony Michel and the Pats are in a good position to qualify for the fourth week. By Miami, only a defensive lineman (Davon Godchaux) ranks in the top 40. stuffed tracks. In the first three weeks, Miami is a 14th success rate in terms of success (46%). Now, Rex Burkhead (neck), New England must find a semblance of continuity in attack.
Philadelphia Eagles to the Tennessee Titans (1 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Front Seven dominates the Titan race
The explosive and efficient passes undeniably win the matches in the NFL, but completely eliminate the infringements of the forces of race is one-dimensional. That's exactly what Philadelphia does. The Eagles pass the defense was so much to start the season, but their avant-garde kept their defense afloat.
Of the 129 defensive linemen with at least 50 caps this year, the Eagles have an absurd number of four players in the top 20 disruption rate of Next Gen Stats. This is true. Derek Barnett (disruption rate of 17.9), Chris Long (disruption rate of 13.7), Brandon Graham (disruption rate of 11.2) and Fletcher Cox (disruption rate of 11.2) tore down all Offensive line players. Philadelphia stopped 35% of its losses for a loss or a draw, by far the best rate in the NFL. The next closest team is Buffalo (31%). Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry have a tough day before the fourth week.
Seattle Seahawks at the Arizona Cardinals (4:05 pm ET)
Key Matchup: David Johnson against the card framing staff
Josh Rosen is finally Under the center after a brutal start to Sam Bradford in which Arizona was the last to score (9.7%), yards won per game (5.0) and points scored per player (0.65) weeks 1-3. Even after three insignificant competitions, the change was late.
Johnson's slow start can be attributed to a number of things that work against him. Arizona has averaged only 47.3 games per game, by far the worst of the NFL. The average offensive revolves around 63 to 64 games per contest. The simple lack of volume of play has, unsurprisingly, erased Johnson's touch account. Because the offense can not even withstand a race between the 20s – much less points to score – Johnson averages only 14.7 hits and 59.7 yards per game. In 2016, Johnson averaged 22.9 hits and 129.9 yards per scrum, while the Cards attack designed by former head coach Bruce Arians played the second-highest number of games. games per game in the NFL (67.9).
New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy does not consider Johnson an offensive weapon either. In his 2016 monster season, Johnson achieved 26% of his total separate courses from Arizona training. This year, McCoy has deployed DJ as a broad receiver only eight percent of the time. This Next Gen heat map shows McCoy's lack of innovation. Here's where Johnson's aligned with all of Arizona's passing games this season:
Last week head coach Steve Wilks said Johnson was going to "run more roads in the slot … I have total confidence." This did not happen during week 3 (zero slot machine capture). Today, facing a Seahawks team that has only awarded 11 RBs (fifth-smallest) receptions, combined with the offensive and troubled coaching staff of the ####################################################################################### | Arizona, the outlook for week 4 of Johnson remains reduced.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (4 pm ET)
Key match: Baker Mayfield vs. Secondary Raiders
Mayfield only made 23 assists in the third week in relief of Tyrod Taylor (concussion), but there was something to excite. Per Next Gen, Mayfield completed 76% of his passes and had a score of 103.7 inside the box against the Jets. Throughout the season, Taylor struggled with his pocket command: he completed only 49% of his passes and earned a score of 64.4 inside the box.
In addition, while Taylor struggled to make shots, we should normally expect a quarterback, Mayfield having a completion rate of 5.2% above the expectations of Week 3:
Now, Mayfield faces a Raiders team that has the sixth highest score (101.9), the third highest pass (8.7) and has forced the pressure at the lowest rate in the league (15.8%) to start the season. It's a perfect place for Mayfield's official debut.
San Francisco 49ers to Los Angeles Chargers (4:25 pm ET)
Key Matchup: The effect of C.J. Beathard on the Niners
C.J. Beathard started five games for the Niners last season and the results were not very good. Beathard had a rating of 69.2 (second worst) and only 6.4 yards per pass (sixth worst) last season as the least efficient QB in the league. Beathard particularly struggled as a rookie. Subsequently, Beathard only realized 38.3% of his passes (sixth) and got a passing score of 32.4 (second worst) under duress last year. In the past two years, Jimmy Garoppolo has completed 54.2% of his passes and scored 63.1 stronger under pressure.
The San Francisco attack will change drastically under Beathard. Here's how the two Niners QBs have distributed their targets over the past two seasons:
Fortunately, a dead season of maturation allowed Beathard to slow down and put himself under pressure. What remains to be seen is if Beathard relies on his RBs a little lighter after leading all quarters of 2017, by far, to run behind the target rate. Matt Breida (knee) could be on the rise with Beathard in the center. Last year, former Niner Carlos Hyde averaged 8.3 goals per game with Beathard in the lineup against 3.8 goals per day with Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer. Meanwhile, the teammate and non-receiving threat, Alfred Morris, averages 0.88 assists per game over his career. Breida and perhaps FB Kyle Juszczyk are perhaps the only Niners who do not see a significant slowdown in the exit with Beathard at the controls.
New Orleans Saints in New York Giants (4:25 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Can Giants Slow Down Michael Thomas?
In three games, Michael Thomas set a single-season record for most receptions (38) in weeks 1-3 in NFL history. Thomas's absurd statistics and his 95% catch rate can probably be attributed to the increase in his use of slot machines, which went from 12.7% and 22.8% in his first two years to 32% this season. As a result, only 7.5% of Thomas's total passing goals were thrown into a tight window this year – according to next-generation statistics. Last year, 23.5% of Thomas's goals had passed through a tight air window.
After starting with 16/180/1, 12/89/2 and 10/129, Thomas is in another spot of week 4 against a Giants side team which allowed a catch rate of 78.9% and 10.3 yards per try from broadband enemy slots. Both figures are sixth in the NFL. Warning.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday evening (8:20 pm ET)
Key Correspondence: Antonio Brown vs. Media coverage; Cover of JuJu Smith Schuster against the Ravens
The best league shooter faces the best secondary of the fourth week in prime time. Of course, it's the game of the week.
This year, the Ravens High School was a resounding success – with a score of 62.8 (second lowest), an attempt of just 5.0 yards per pass (the lowest) and a completion rate of 52.7% (the lowest). Keep in mind that the Ravens' first successes are without Jimmy Smith, who is suspended one more game.
As noted by the Next Gen team, Ravens very often used press coverage (40.7%, the second highest rate) since the beginning of the year. at the line of scrimmage:
Since the beginning of 2016, Brown has the advantage over Baltimore (7/85/1, 10/96/1, 4/34, 11/213 in reception). While Brown is busy with press coverage at the border, JuJu Smith-Schuster could face easier coverage from the inside. This year, JuJu has covered 80% of its routes from the niche, while 43% of the Ravens passing passes came from enemy slot machines. Three of the four pass marks allowed by Baltimore came from a niche, while the next overall Smith-Schuster averages nine receptions and 124.3 yards per game without LeVeon Bell (including week 17 year last). enjoy more if Brown attracts the attention of the press on the border.
Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos on Monday night (8:15 pm ET)
Key Matchup: Patrick Mahomes under pressure
What Patrick Mahomes is doing is incredible. Despite pressures on 37.1% of its fallout this year (third highest rate), Mahomes still tore down enemy defenses at all depths:
Today, the attack by Mahomes and Chiefs is one of the toughest tests so far in Denver. This year, the Broncos are the sixth highest league in the league (31.6%) and their four bags in the blitzing rank fifth. This year, the Kansas City offensive line failed to absorb the attacks – allowing pressure on 58.3 percent of Mahomes' delays when the defense sends five rushers or more (third highest rate). Denver's aggressive blitz against Mahomes' aerial assaults gives rise to an incredible scenario of Week 4 on Monday night.
– Graham Barfield is the editor of fantastic football content on NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter @GrahamBarfield.
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