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Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers could face windy conditions Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. (Justin K. Go / Getty Images)
The impact of the weather on the score in the NFL is often overlooked by inexperienced sports bettors when they bet on total points, also known as over / under, but this could be a factor crucial. Every week Gregory Porter, contributor and forecaster of Post's Capital Weather Gang, will highlight a wagering opportunity based on weather forecasts.
This week, he advises to win the first leg (44.5 points total) Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns.
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According to Porter, the remnants of tropical storm Gordon will hide south of Ohio on Sunday afternoon, creating a generally unstable atmosphere around Cleveland at kickoff. Intermittent rain showers are likely at some point during this match, but the real story could be the wind. Strong southeasterly winds (with bursts above 20 km / hr) could hinder both teams' passes and kicks, suggesting a weaker scorers affair.
Source: NOAA via CIRA / RAMMB
Outdoor games have a lower overall rating – an average of 2.0 points per disc over the past five years in dome stadiums versus 1.78 points per disc outdoors – and strong gusts of wind upset the passing game. A study published by Scott Spratt of Pro Football Focus in 2017 found that completion rates fall of almost two percentage points when winds exceed 10 mph and Brian Burke did a similar study five years earlier, concluding that similar gusts of wind were number of yards per attempt.
As Pittsburgh will be without star Le'Veon Bell for Game 1, relying more on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger may not be an option, which would reduce scoring opportunities. As for Cleveland, it has not yet proven that it could move to a medium level, let alone in windy conditions.
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