NFL Insiders in 2018 Predict – Projections of Statistical, Overrun and Subpart Lines for Rookie Quarter Starters



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For week 4, our NFL insider panel selects Mike Clay's four-star rookie subtitles – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen – for the rest of the season. We asked Clay to create screenings for rushing yards, total touchdowns and interceptions of each QB in the remaining 13 games, then our expectations were over or under on each one.

What's more: what a recruiting caller is best placed to succeed in the short term and who is better in the long run.


Over / Under 2018 for Baker Mayfield, Browns:
3,321 yards passing, 19 total touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Pat McManamon, Browns reporter: Under, under, under. Let's keep some perspective. DeShone Kizer started 15 games last season and had 2,894 passing yards. Tim Couch started 14 games as a rookie and started for 2,447. Mayfield will have 13 starts with a foul that wants to run the ball. He was very strong against the Jets, and he could continue to be excellent, but to exceed 3,000 yards in 13 games with a team that wants to throw the ball is unrealistic. The 19 touchdowns are close, but in the first three games of the Browns, they threw three touchdowns and ran for five. Mayfield could change this relationship, but the end-of-season time in Cleveland will also be at stake. As for the interceptions, one of his strengths is to avoid them (even though he's seen a fall against the Jets). This trend is expected to continue.

Domonique Foxworth, undefeated senior writer: Under, under, under. For Mayfield to reach these numbers, it would take on average 255 yards, 1.5 TD and 0.9 INT. That would be almost identical to the 2017 game averages for one of the highest paid veteran football quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins. At some point, Mayfield will be better than Cousins, but I doubt that the Browns are asking him to carry the offensive. So his statistics will suffer.

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