NFL Week 1 Pick: Giants Shock Jaguars, Darnold Wins Victory, Rams Welcomes Raiders

May God have pity on Peterman's soul against this defense of the Ravens.

Choice: Ravens 17, Bills 6

Pittsburgh to Cleveland

1 pm ET (CBS)

We've been beating this drum for a few months now – most recently in Monday night's Pick Six Podcast – but what looks like a paper eruption could be quite different on Sunday afternoon. In the past four years, the Steelers and Browns have played twice in Week 1; both times – in 2014 and 2018 – the Steelers were strongly favored (by seven and ten points), and both teams won three wins. In the 2014 game, they needed extra time to do it and in 17, they started strong before letting the rookie of the time, DeShone Kizer, lead Cleveland in the final.

Pittsburgh should win but if nothing else, be wary of the 5.5 point gap. Again, it's the Browns. And even though "Hard Knocks" was the perfect one-month rally for a fanatical fanbase, it's still about Hue Jackson's team, the same as the one that's been 1-31 since arriving in 2016.

The Steelers have a 13-3 score that includes a division title, and their biggest questions concern the ability of running back Veon Bell to open the scoring after another holdup and the defender's response. without linebacker Ryan Shazier.

Choice: Steelers 24, Browns 21

Cincinnati to Indianapolis

1 pm ET (CBS)

The Bengals have spent the off-season improving an offensive line that allowed Andy Dalton to score lower than Eli Manning in 2017 after placing in the top 10 finishers of the previous season. Joe Mixon could finish the season as one of the best backs in the league, and if the first round pick of 2017, John Ross, could take second place against AJ Green, this offense could be among the most balanced in the AFC. In Indy, we do not know what to expect Andrew Luck, especially because we have not seen him play since the 2016 season. The fact that he has passed the pre-season in one piece is great news but one may wonder if he will ever return to his pre-shoulder injury form. He looked more like Chad Pennington in recent weeks, and although you can definitely win like that (Chad Pennington did), can luck adapt in this way?

Choice: Bengals 28, Colts 21

Tennessee in Miami

1 pm ET (Fox)

We continue to be disappointed by Marcus Mariota, an incredible talent who has not lived up to expectations. This is partly due to lingering injuries, which resulted in an incoherent and ultimately disappointing 2017 campaign. But Mariota is in good health at the approach of 18 and her pre-season has raised many of the same issues that have pushed critics to claim much of her career. Perhaps the new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, from Sean McVay's training tree, can get the best of Mariota, but until now we have not seen .

The Dolphins are the favorites of many people to finish behind the Patriots and Jets in the AFC East, but maybe this is the year when things click for Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase. To be honest, Tannehill showed a glimpse of his combination in 2016 and the injury to the ACL then derailed his 17-year campaign.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Titans 16

San Francisco Minnesota

1 pm ET (Fox)

The 49ers are everyoneThe favorites of the Darkhorse playoffs, but it's also the same outfit that took place 6-10 in the first season of Kyle Shanahan. Of course, the counter-argument is that San Francisco has won five straight wins to end the season, which coincided with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over the position.

The Vikings, who went to the NFC Championship game with the season at MVP Case Keenum, have decided to replace him with Kirk Cousins. The attack is stacked at the skill position, but questions about the offensive line remain. It's also one of the best defenses in the league and there's little reason to think that Minnesota will end up in the playoffs in four months.

Pick: Vikings 28, 49ers 17

Houston to New England

1 pm ET (CBS)

We love Texans this season, mainly because Deshaun Watson is in good health. He was rookie of the year before an injury to ACL in November ended his 17-year campaign. Also in good health: J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to reinforce what should be a significantly improved defense. The Houston offensive line is one of the big questions, but if it is settled, this team can win the AFC South and make a series of playoffs. None of this matters in the first week as the Texans face the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. And although New England is not up to the first game of the season, there will always be Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the two names that have virtually assured victory each week in this century.

Pick: Patriots 31, Texans 24

Tampa Bay in New Orleans

1 pm ET (Fox)

The Bucs are without Jameis Winston, questions remain about the game of running and the defense was ranked last at the last minute. The Saints, meanwhile, are ready for a Super Bowl. The defense was stifling in 2017 and they added defenseman Marcus Davenport. The attack could be without Mark Ingram for a month, but there is still Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara in the backfield, and Michael Thomas, one of the NFL's best young catchers, is terrorizing the high school side.

Pick: Saints 31, Buccaneers 13

Jacksonville to New York Giants

1 pm ET (Fox)

Here's the deal: The Jaguars are going to be good in 2018. But the question is whether they are going as well as their 17 year olds. Because even if Blake Bortles remains a quarterback, which seems eminently reasonable, but the defense goes from number 1 to 5-10, the Jags could go from 10-6 to 8-8. The Giants have nowhere to go, but upstairs. Last season, they won three unimportant games, but they improved the offensive line, pushed off the attacking half Saquon Barkley and have a healthy Odell Beckham who joined a passing attack including Evan Ingram and Sterling Shepard. And if the defense, which was a joke last season, can return to its 2016 form, the Giants can win the division. Stop laughing, we are serious.

Choice: Giants 17, Jaguars 16

Kansas City to Los Angeles Chargers

16:05 ET (CBS)

Second-year quarterback Pat Mahomes could start 4,500 yards this season. It has Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Kareem Hunt, a group that has one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Unfortunately, the defense could be at the other end of the spectrum and the fate of the Chiefs could boil down to the magnitude of Mahomes & Co .. this the year when everything meets for Philip Rivers and the Chargers? Los Angeles will be back in the pack, thanks to Rivers and a nationally underrated defense, but we are still not sold that the Chargers will not shoot in the foot when it counts.

Choice: counts 31, chargers 28

Washington, Arizona

4:25 ET (Fox)

In July, we thought Alex Smith might be an MVP candidate. We liked what he did in Andy Reid's offensive in Kansas City and we thought he could have even more success in Jay Gruden's project. But the Redskins, one of the worst teams in the league of the previous season, lost rookie Derrius Guice, injured in his first preseason game, and a No. 1 catcher remains a huge question. Yes, Adrian Peterson played well in his pre-season debut, but back to his efficiency when he has six games between two games instead of the eight months of rest between the end of last season and his first report in Washington. The Cardinals could quietly be a playoff team, whether with Sam Bradford or rookie Josh Rosen, should (when?) Bradford be hurt. The defense is one of the top five and should make life difficult for Smith and the Redskins on Sunday.

Pick: Cardinals 21, Redskins 14

Dallas to Carolina

4:25 ET (Fox)

Which Cowboys team will be in Carolina? The 2016 group that won 13 times or the incoherent team that managed only nine wins per season? If the offensive line and Dak Prescott do not come back to their form of & 16, and that defense is not something better than the replacement level, we could see a repeat of 2017. The Panthers could be better than the unit that ran 11-5 last season, and starts with Cam Newton. Christian McCaffrey's role is expected to increase and rookie D.J. Moore praised Steve Smith. With one of the best defenses of the NFC, Carolina should be in almost every game.

Pick: Panthers: 24, Cowboys 21

Seattle to Denver

4:25 ET (Fox)

We spent the off season calling the Seahawks the worst team in the West of the NFC. Save a count Thomas unhappy, they dismantled the Boom Legion, and did little to replace them. The offensive line is still a heavy responsibility and, instead of tackling any of these needs, Seattle used its first-round pick with Rashaad Penny. But the defense seemed strong in pre-season and if Russell Wilson is ready to take his place – with a little help from Penny – then maybe the Seahawks could find a way to win 10 wins and participate in the conversation eliminatory.

The Broncos finally have a quarter at Case Keenum, and have added running back Royce Freeman and back Courtland Sutton to coach playmakers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. The defense should again be a top 10 unit, which means that Keenum's play will determine whether the playoffs are realistic.

Pick: Seahawks 17, Broncos 16

Chicago to Green Bay

20:20 ET (NBC)

We love everything the Bears have done during the off season, starting with the dumping of John Fox and ending with trading for Khalil Mack. But it's about returning to Aaron Roders football and it's happening at Lambeau Field. The Bears could even be in for a division title at the end of the season, but for now it's Green Bay.

Pick: Packers 24, Bears 14

New York Jets in Detroit

Monday at 7:10 pm ET (ESPN)

Unlike Josh Rosen in Buffalo, rookie quarterback Josh Darnold has a relatively friendly schedule to start his career in the NFL: Detroit, Miami and Cleveland. The Lions won nine games last season, but the defense looked suspicious under new coach Matt Patricia, who was previously the Patriots' defensive coordinator. Darnold appeared to be a grizzled veteran during the pre-season and although he could initially fight against the defenses who are actively planning the match against him, it will not take him long before settling into his role franchise quarter.

Pick: Jets: 20, Lions 17

Los Angeles Rams to Oakland

Monday at 22:20 ET (ESPN)

There is a conversation to be made as to whether the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL. It is stupid to make such statements even before playing a match, but new coach Jon Gruden has not exactly regained his balance. He spent the off-season acquiring aging players like Jordy Nelson and Doug Martin, or exchanging extravagant talents like Martavis Bryant (as a result of a third-round pick) before cutting it last week. Then there is linebacker Khalil Mack. One of the most talented young players in the league wanted to be paid as … one of the most talented young players in the league. But instead of trading, the Raiders focused on signing other players, leaving them no budget for Mack.

The result: a less than average defense has clearly deteriorated and Mack got what he was looking for Bears. The Raiders got their first two rounds in return, although no choice will help the team now, and there is no guarantee that the team will be able to identify the first-round talent with these selections in 2019 and 2020 Perhaps the only Rams share one thing with the Raiders: their best player, defensive lineman Aaron Donald, also held for a new contract. Los Angeles paid Donald what it was worth, and now the team is leading the season as a favorite to win the NFC West, and a lot of people's favorites to represent the conference at the Super Bowl.

Choice: Rams 34, Raiders 9