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MILWAUKEE – In the first game of the NLCS, the Dodgers sent Cy Young's three-time winner, Clayton Kershaw, to the mound. He hesitated and was removed in the fourth inning while his team lost the match, 6-5.
We will examine Kershaw's departure, step by step. Why? Kershaw has the feeling that he has some sort of trouble with the playoffs. Some even insinuate that it is a matter of mental toughness, the illusion that he can not stand the pressure or something of the sort.
There was a difference. In the regular season, he is 153-69 with a 2.39 ERA and .01 WHIP. With the first match approaching, he is 8-7 with an average of 4.08 and 1.05 WHIP in the playoffs.
The thing is, there are some jewels among the duds. No series may best sum up what we saw from Kershaw in the playoffs as the 2016 NLCS. In the second game, he handcuffed the Cubs for seven innings without scoring, allowing only two hits. Then, in Match 6 with the Dodgers in a playoff game, Kershaw was manhandled for five points (four earned) in five innings. He gave seven hits, including two homers. If he was scared by the playoffs, you will not see the second game. Yet dissidents may indicate the sixth match and pretend that it is choked.
Now, for the first game, Kershaw has just had the best start of his playoff career. He limited the Braves to two hits in eight decisive runs. He only needed 85 locations.
This is how his follow-up action in Milwaukee transpired, chronologically.
First run
Kershaw gets up and takes his starting position almost exactly in the middle of the gum. He takes his warm-ups and we are ready for action.
The game plan on Lorenzo Cain had to get him back. Kershaw's plant foot is on the side of the first goal of the rubber and he enters with three fast balls with four seams. At 44%, Kershaw still uses the radiator more than any other tuning fork, but it peaked at 71.5% in 2010. It makes sense. He can not throw as hard as before, and opponents hit .299 with a strike of over .500 this year. The slider almost caught up with its use (39.1%) and Kershaw opted for a pair of sliders afterwards. Cain puts the second in the middle and Kershaw is already in a dangerous situation.
The NL's par excellence player, Christian Yelich, approaches the plate. At this point, Yelich is 9 in 17 with a brace and two home runs against Kershaw. Kershaw starts again with three fastballs and a slider. The latter tried a pass, which allowed Cain to score. After a mix of sliders and four seams, I wondered in our live chat if Kershaw would go in the curve.
You see, Kershaw's curveball is the least used – among its three big fields – but the most efficient. He only used it 16.5% of the time, but he limited his opponent to .198 and .229 with a 33.7% withdrawal percentage. That's his weapon on a count of two strikes and, of course, Kershaw used it and hit Yelich.
With a runner in second place, Kershaw could not mess around. He inducted Ryan Braun in a ground attack with the second throw of that at-bat.
Two of the six pitches needed to get Jesus Aguilar down were also curved, including the ground that led to the exit. Expect to see the curve appear all night when Kershaw is about to abandon a race. Here, he got the three outs with his curve and the shot that he allowed came on his slider.
Second run
Kershaw plays against Hernan Perez, right-handed. Perez is probably in the game because Travis Shaw would be stuck in a difficult situation left-left, but Perez is a five-hole less imposing. Perez shows a bump on the first pitch, probably to take a look at Kershaw, who had only faced him five times before. It's a slider for a hit followed by a slider that allowed Perez to bring a player back to Kershaw. He only missed two more fields, and it was huge after the Brewers had worked for 23 in the first match.
Next step: Mike Moustakas. Kershaw leads him to 0-2 with a slider and a fastball. On the 0-2, he shows us his first run a little away from the night and misses. He would then get a breakaway against Moose, which again, the curve. Four of his five outs went through his field.
Manny Pina followed with a single at the first step and training by line to focus on a seam.
A four-seam fastball and two sliders were all that Kershaw would need to get a base player Orlando Arcia weak. The number of throws is now 33.
It's only two innings, but we can see Kershaw's formula on display. He will look to take advance in the count with fast balls well placed – again, his fastball is hit hard on occasion, so he must perfectly control the pitch – and the sliders. When he needs a big pitch, he goes with the good old Uncle Charlie. One may wonder if the curve is so effective, why does not Kershaw use it any more? I point out the very real possibility that if he used it more, the hitters would see it better. It's better to use it when it's time to put a batter aside.
We will now follow much less the rest of his beginnings knowing that this is how it will work.
Third round
Kershaw had a really short half-race. He started and the next two batters were removed quickly. Maybe it mattered. Thrower Brandon Woodruff made a two-shot home run on a four-sided fastball. He had tried a curve, but had missed it and Woodruff had not bitten him. It would be curious to give a fastball even to a pitcher in the middle of the zone, given the strength with which he was hit by Kershaw this season. The thing is, Kershaw has missed. Notice what I said last round about the order. Now look at the catcher's glove and where the land ends.
When the throwers are tired, the command goes before the velocity. Take note of Kershaw's short half sleeve.
Cain chose a 1-0 slider and Yelich was walking on a 3-2 curve. The sequence of Kershaw's heights is exactly what we thought we were, but its execution is flawed. Subsequently, Braun managed to cross a two-tap curve (another harbinger), but he eventually went to the first on a slider.
Then, Jesus Aguilar absolutely crushed a two – shot slider (he had already tried a curve in the attack, but Aguilar spoiled him). David Freese made an incredible dive early. But wait, the receiver's intervention was called, so Kershaw was now in a one-way situation. He caused a Hernan Perez bag hijacking on a 1-1 1-1. I was surprised that he was not more aggressive with the curve here, given the situation. He drew Moustakas well with a 0-1 curve before a well-placed fast ball got Moose.
Things are tenuous. Kershaw is at 62 throws out of three and he was not himself in the third. Perhaps more rest between the heats allows him to find what he had in the first two rounds.
Fourth inning
Manny Pina's walk to start the race did not seem good for Kershaw. Pina crashed a foul ball on a slider then Kershaw could not touch his squares nor receive the calls he wished with his fastball. At this point, it should be mentioned that the era of Kershaw's career with Scott Barry as a home umpire is 4.41, the highest of all referees to have called his matches. During the Pina walk, there were two places that could have been called strikes, but this was not the case.
Arcia then lit a slider in the center left and a mistake by Chris Taylor sent the riders to second and third places without outs. Domingo Santana was then the extraordinary hitter-cleaver, but after the Dodgers needed a visit to the mound. It's not all Kershaw's fault, but he's not right.
Of course, Santana burned a Kershaw fastball and drove home two points, and that was it.
Again, notice the placement of the Grandal and Kershaw glove missing from middle to middle. He just can not do that and be effective in the 90s.
The last line: 3+ IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. This is not very good at all, it goes without saying. Some people know Kershaw for his bad series, and it was the shortest of his career. In tracking down each throw, I noticed that Kershaw had 30 throws with two shots and only induced Yelich's swing-and-miss. Even his faithful curve did not miss much.
To take away
Kershaw certainly is not "scared" of getting into the playoffs or whatever the nonsense narrative.
What's done in this game was a combination of factors. The Brewers are a powerful offensive team. Kershaw missed places – in the case of Woodruff, very badly – and Yasmani Grandal was terrible behind the marble. The Dodgers' defense behind him was rather sloppy. And Kershaw's fastball and slider were hit too hard in the third and fourth innings. It's probably not a coincidence that he started losing it after this very short break between second and third place, but it's up to him to overcome such problems.
In the first game, Clayton Kershaw just did not do the job. There were other factors involved, but in the end, the responsibility lies with its execution the second time in the order. It was not there.
And the story that he's not a post-season ace remains. So many times in his career, he has had an excellent outing with a stinker. He started again.
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